Thoroughbreds: RT’s picks for winners and exotics Wednesday afternoon at Penn National
Bloodletting and lessons learned from yesterday and I have only myself to blame . . .
Mahoning Valley in race 3, I mentioned the trainer David St. Clair. I have been following him and frankly, got away from my better judgment by not betting him. Ouch.
Mahoning Valley in Race 4, key races are important. Ouch again
Musings . . .
The Wood Memorial is this weekend and tripping down memory lane, some fantastic moments came to mind.
The first one I saw was Dancers Image taking it in 1968. Later, Dancers Image would win The Derby and subsequently be disqualified for testing positive for Bute, a common anti-inflammatory that was allowed for training then and disallowed on race day. Evidently, there were small traces and Dancers Image was the only horse tested after that race.
Others that stand out to me are Foolish Pleasure nipping Bombay Duck, Easy Goers’ win which spawned the best Triple Crown Competition pitting him and Sunday Silence, and Verrazano digging in and holding off Hyjack and Normandy Invasion to name a few.
Having a preference to Todd Pletcher horses in this race, which, of over the last ten years, has cashed five times, I’m partial to Outshine in this spot and Tacitus, whom I bet on in the Tampa Derby after reading that he is Hidden Scrolls’ workout/stable mate.
Countdown..
31 days until the Kentucky Derby. Put on your Derby hat, sip mint juleps, eat a Hot Brown and sing “My Old Kentucky Home.” Been to seven of those with the first being the 100th running and streaking was in. That day, a guy in the infield, climbed the flagpole to the pedestal, dropped his pants and swung around doing The Full Monty. My cousins’ girlfriend had an 8mm video camera shooting it and commenting, “gross, gross, gross,” all the while zooming in.
Goings On at Penn National . . .
Jockey Edwin Gonzalez is closing in on 50 wins having scored 46 to date at a 29% clip.
The next in line is Julio Hernandez with 30.
For trainers, Tim Kreiser leads with 26 wins (25%) and Kim Graci is next snagging 21 with an 18% number.
It’ll be a beautiful afternoon at Wednesday’s post time, 60˚ with a $5,858 Pick 6 Carryover
Penn National Race 1
$5K MCL going 1 mile & 70 yards for 4yo+ M&F $10K Purse
This race reminds me of Lincoln describing McLellan; “he’s got the slows.”
The Skinny:
3-Girlies Dream (2-1) while betting on a horse that is 0-14 will not put you in Forbes’ billionaire list, this filly has a shot to win today. Girlies game changed last out when rider Emilio Flores got the mount and produced her best effort yet. He is back and improvement is eminent.
4-Jaburu (5-2) lightly raced filly gets a jockey change to Dana Whitney and he is very capable of bringing her in. Moving down in class, she had her last out in a similar route where she pressed the pace before tiring.
2-Roman Times (5-2) has one of the best last numbers and digging deeper, Stephanie Sheroski had her out once in early January and Stephanie is outstanding at rating a horse which she did well, moving to the rail to get up for 2nd.
1-Blazing D. R. (5-1) again, this mare has not won in 15 outings. She does get leading rider Julio Hernandez for a second time and she was very responsive with him last out.
Penn National Race 1 Bets
$10w/$20/p #3
$2 Exacta Box 3-4-2
$1 Trifecta 2-4/2-4-1/3, 2-4/3/2-4-1, 3/2-4/2-4-1
Penn National Race 2
$28K Allowance going 1&1/16th miles for 4yo+
The Skinny:
7-Swinging Star (4-1) is of interest for two reasons and the first is a lesson from Pittsburg Phil… Some horses will run good races over certain tracks, while in the same company under similar conditions on other tracks they will run very disappointingly. Study the likes and dislikes of a horse in regard to tracks.
The secondpoint of interest is trainer capability. Mark Salvaggio (24%w class up and 23% v’s after winning last) claimed this Malibu Moon gelding on February 18th for $16K. Mark expired his claiming jail time and worked with this guy who has shown a dramatic result based on its first out -- a win and a 100/93 EBase score -- the highest last out of this group. The win was here at Penn. Happy horse, happy result. FYI, the reverse of this is the number 5. Claimed five back, his efforts have not seen scores in the high 80’s, low 90’s as the previous trainer was scoring.
1-Rivington (8-1) an Aussie was posting on a site recently, “1st Gelding Alert, “1st Gelding Alert.” When asked if the statistics there showed a larger win % than here, he didn’t answer. In most cases, 2nd time gelded horses and beyond are better propositions. It depends on the time elapsed which only makes sense as mother nature adapts to his “ultimate equipment change” tending to have the horse mature its musculature up to 6 months. Per Dr. Jose Bras: “It depends on a horse's age. There are two things -- learned behavior, and a reaction to hormones,” said Bras. “You will have horses that if you geld them when they are four, five, six years old, they already have a learned behavior. Once the testosterone decreases, they are not going to be that interested in females but they still have behavior that they learned and may act a little bit studdish.” Rivington is 4, yet is lightly raced having only 4 outings. His improvement last out (1st gelding) reflected no remarkable improvement, however, this is the race where he’ll step up. Jockey Tyler Connor seemingly has returned to his winning ways like this winter -- last 10 days, 25% wins
9-In Equality (10-1) I kept looking at the running lines with the thought, ”why does trainer Ron Abrams (rarely races at Penn and has a 50% win rate when he does) have this horse in this race? Sometimes it is simply best to have confidence and go with it.
For your betting in exotics:
2-Bolt Brotherhood 3-1 at Penn 11 outs, 10 ITM
5-Chippewawhitechief (12-1) at Penn 14 outs, 12 ITM.
Penn National Race 2 Bets
$20/w $40/p #7
$2 Exacta 7-1/7-1-9-2-5
$1 Trifecta 7-1-9/7-1-9-2-5/7-1-9-2-5
$12 Pick 6 – 1-5, 3, 5, 5-6, 5, 1-7
Penn National Race 6
The Feature $31.6K Staties 3yo+ going 1 Mile, 70 yards
The Skinny:
Some races, when you look at the PP’s, you think, “this one looks like a mortal lock.” The 6-Start Cashin (2-1) gives you that appearance and will take a lot of money tonight. However, the 5-Bigasaurus (5-2), came to light with this resounding question…”why is Trevor McCarthy, the champion rider at Laurel this year, have this one and only mount?” As best as I can tell, the trainer has this horse in prime condition and ownership is that serious about winning this race. I’m in. Another dynamic in this race is 4-Heat Dome (3-1), who last year, ownership booted the trainer and hired Jim Lawrence, who has done a masterful job putting him on the bench and bringing him out when ready (six months) and has gotten dramatic improvement.
Penn National Race 6 Bets
$10/w $20/p #5
$2 Exacta all over #6
$1 Trifecta 5-6/5-6-1/4, 5-6/4/5-6-1, 4/5-6/5-6-1