Valkyries vs. Dream Game 3 Picks: Take the Points in the WNBA Finals
The WNBA Finals are tied 1-1 as Golden State visits Atlanta for Game 3. Here is why the Valkyries and the points are the best bet.
Golden State lost the one thing it built a title run on, its defensive edge, in Game 2, and now it has to win in an Atlanta building that hasn’t hosted a Finals game in 13 years.
Quick take:
- Pick: Golden State Valkyries +3.5
- Why: Neither team can shoot in this series, and a low-scoring grind favors the points with the underdog.
- The number to watch: 19 turnovers committed by Golden State in Game 2, from a team that led the league in defense at 75.1 points allowed per game.
The WNBA Finals are tied 1-1 as the series shifts to State Farm Arena in Atlanta on Wednesday night, with tip-off at 8:00 p.m. ET on USA Network, CNBC and Peacock. The Valkyries (32-12) stole Game 1 in San Francisco, 68-64, behind 26 points from Gabby Williams. The Dream (30-14) answered with a 79-65 win in Game 2, the first Finals victory in franchise history.
Both teams are still hunting a first championship. Neither has found its shot.
A Short Home Favorite in a Series That Won’t Score
The market opened with Atlanta at -2.5 and a moneyline of -148, with Golden State at +124 and a total of 150.5. By Tuesday, the Dream had moved to a 3.5-point favorite with the total sitting between 151 and 152.5, depending on the book. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Atlanta a 55.1 percent chance to win, which is a lot less confident than a 3.5-point spread implies.
That gap is where the value lives. Bettors are paying a premium for the Game 2 result and for home court, even though that win came on the back of one player having a monster night for a team that shot under 34 percent. If you’re comparing lines before tip, the DraftKings promo code page is a good place to start, since this spread has already moved a full point.
Why the Valkyries Can Keep This Close
Golden State led the league in the regular season at 75.1 points allowed per game and forced nearly 14 turnovers a night. That identity disappeared on Monday, when the Valkyries committed 19 turnovers and head coach Natalie Nakase said her team was outworked, adding that she needed to examine how she delivered her message about fight and physicality. Veronica Burton agreed the group was outhustled.
Golden State’s 34.4 percent shooting in Game 2 was the highest field goal clip either team has posted through two games of this series.
That’s the number that matters. Atlanta needed 30 points and 16 rebounds from Angel Reese to win by 14 while shooting just 33.9 percent overall and 7-for-25 from three. The Dream’s offense wasn’t good in Game 2; the Valkyries’ offense was simply worse, and their giveaways handed Atlanta easy possessions. Clean up the turnovers and a game that stays in the 60s and low 70s becomes a coin flip decided by a handful of possessions.
Williams has been the constant. She is the only Golden State player to score in double figures in both games, averaging 20 points in the series, and she scored 16 of her 26 in the second quarter of Game 1. Smesko himself said both defenses are playing at a very high level of intensity, which tells you the scoring isn’t about to explode.
What Atlanta Needs to Repeat
Reese is the engine. Her Game 2 line made her the youngest player in WNBA history to post 30 points and 15 rebounds in a Finals game, following a 14-point, 12-rebound effort in the opener. Allisha Gray returned from a finger injury to score 19 in Game 1, and Jordin Canada has been a steadying presence, with eight points and seven assists in that game.
The concern is the supporting cast. Rhyne Howard went 3-for-14 in Game 1, and the Dream missed all seven of their shots in the final 2:53 of that loss. On the injury front, Brionna Jones is listed with a leg injury and Matilde Villa is out by coach’s decision.
Home court helps, and Atlanta went 10-4 after a loss in the regular season, the best mark in the league. The Valkyries also won their only regular-season trip to Atlanta, 88-83 on July 4. Neither fact makes a team that shot 33.9 percent in its last game more than a three-point favorite.
Prediction and Best Bet
Atlanta’s home crowd and Reese’s rebounding should be enough for the Dream to win, but a one-possession game is the likeliest outcome in a series decided by four points and then fourteen. Golden State’s defense travels, and getting the points is the better side of a spread that has already moved against it.
The pick:
- Prediction: Atlanta Dream 72, Golden State Valkyries 69
- Best Bet: Golden State Valkyries +3.5
Two offenses shooting this poorly rarely produce a comfortable margin, and Golden State only needs to lose by three or fewer, or win outright, to cash.