Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Game 3 Prediction: Can Arike Ogunbowale Do It Again?

Arike Ogunbowale just scored more points in a single playoff game than anyone in WNBA history, and the Golden State Valkyries still have to find a way to stop her again with their season on the line.

Quick take:

• Pick: Golden State Valkyries -7.5
• Why: Game 2 was an outlier fueled by a historic shooting night that’s nearly impossible to replicate, and Golden State’s home-court dominance (17-5) plus Paige Bueckers’ Game 2 struggles point back toward the Game 1 script
• The number to watch: Ogunbowale shot 55.6% from 3-point range in Game 2 — nearly double her series average entering that night

This is as winner-take-all as it gets. The No. 2 seed Valkyries throttled Dallas by 24 points in Game 1 at Chase Center, looking every bit like the 32-12 team that finished 15-8 in the Western Conference. Then Ogunbowale happened. Her 45-point explosion in Game 2 — an off-balance, game-tying corner three with 4.1 seconds left in regulation followed by an overtime takeover — sent the series back to San Francisco for Game 3 on Friday night.

Golden State is still chasing the first playoff series win in franchise history, now in just its second season of existence. Dallas, meanwhile, is trying to reach the WNBA semifinals for just the second time in six postseason trips since relocating in 2016.

What the Market Is Saying About a Deciding Game 3

Oddsmakers have Golden State favored by 7.5 to 8.5 points depending on the book, with the Valkyries’ moneyline sitting in the -310 to -355 range and Dallas going off as roughly a +250 to +280 underdog. The total has settled around 157.5 to 158.5, down from the 181.5 total in Game 2’s overtime track meet — a sign the market expects a game that looks more like Golden State’s defensively sound Game 1 win than the track meet that followed it.

That line movement makes sense. Books are essentially betting that Ogunbowale’s 45-point night was lightning in a bottle rather than a new baseline, and recent playoff history tends to side with the team that dominated Game 1 when a series goes the distance on the road team’s superstar heroics.

Gabby Williams vs. Arike Ogunbowale, Round Three

Golden State’s calling card all series has been Gabby Williams, who followed up her stellar regular season with a career-high 36 points, seven assists, six rebounds and four steals in Game 2 — the first player in WNBA postseason history to hit all four of those marks in a single playoff game. She’s averaging 28 points, 4.5 rebounds and 5.5 assists through two games and has been the engine keeping Golden State in every possession.

The bigger story for Golden State’s title hopes is Paige Bueckers. She was nearly flawless in Game 1, shooting 9-of-10 for 21 points, but Dallas’ defense completely locked her down in Game 2, holding her to just 10 points on 3-of-13 shooting. If the Wings’ defensive scheme from Game 2 travels to San Francisco, that’s a problem Golden State has to solve to avoid putting all the scoring burden on Williams again.

Ogunbowale is averaging 27.5 points per game across the series but shot just 46.7% in Game 1 before her record-breaking 45-point eruption — a split that suggests regression toward a more ordinary scoring night is the smarter bet in a win-or-go-home Game 3.

Dallas got real contributions beyond Ogunbowale in Game 2 — Alysha Clark tied her playoff career high with 21 points on 6-of-7 shooting, and second-year guard Aziaha James chipped in 13. But asking a 39-year-old reserve to replicate a near-perfect shooting night and a superstar to replicate a WNBA record in the same week, on the road, in a building where Golden State is 17-5 this season, is a tall order.

Kayla Thornton has quietly been part of Golden State’s frontcourt stability all series, adding 13 points in Game 2 to go with her usual rebounding and defensive effort. Expect her minutes to matter against a Dallas team that will lean on size and physicality to try to slow the pace back down.

Prediction and Best Bet

Golden State’s blowout win in Game 1 is the more repeatable performance here — elite defense on Bueckers’ co-stars, size advantages inside, and the benefit of a desperate home crowd at Chase Center. Dallas proved it can win a shootout, but asking for a second historic shooting night from Ogunbowale in three games is betting against the odds in the truest sense. If bettors are shopping lines before kickoff, it’s worth a quick look at DraftKings promo code offers for Game 3 markets.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Golden State Valkyries 83, Dallas Wings 74
2. Best Bet: Golden State Valkyries -7.5

Golden State’s defense and home-court edge should be enough to close out the series and send the Valkyries to their first semifinal appearance.