Liberty vs. Lynx Prediction: Can Minnesota’s Depth Cover at Home?

The Lynx have won 31 games and lost their grip on two straight, and the Liberty are the team that beat them the last time it truly mattered.

Quick take:

• Pick: Minnesota Lynx -7.5
• Why: Minnesota’s defense and rebounding edge at home outweighs a Liberty team still finding its rhythm without Satou Sabally
• The number to watch: Olivia Miles’ 19.7 points and 6.0 assists per game running Minnesota’s offense

New York Liberty (24-16) heads to Target Center to face the Minnesota Lynx (31-9) on Friday night, and there’s real history behind this one — these two teams met in the 2024 WNBA Finals, with the Liberty escaping in a five-game series capped by an overtime classic in Brooklyn. Minnesota has clearly not forgotten. The Lynx sit atop the Western Conference at 20-3 in conference play, while the Liberty have stabilized as the No. 3 seed in the East at 12-5 in-conference, riding a one-game winning streak into Minneapolis.

Neither team is at full strength. New York is playing without Satou Sabally, who was ruled out for the remainder of the season on September 3 due to a head injury — a significant loss for a Liberty frontcourt that already leans heavily on Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones. Minnesota is missing Anastasiia Olairi Kosu (foot) and lost Emma Cechova for the season back in May to a torn ACL, but the Lynx have gone 31-9 largely without full continuity up front, a testament to their depth.

Why Vegas Has Minnesota Laying a Touchdown at Home

The market has Minnesota favored by 7.5, with the Lynx moneyline sitting around -265 to -278 depending on the book, while New York comes back at roughly +210 to +225. The total is hovering in the 176.5-to-178.5 range, suggesting oddsmakers expect a competitive pace but a clear final gap on the scoreboard. That’s a notable line for a Liberty team that’s a top-three seed in its own conference, and it speaks to how dominant Minnesota has been at home as the No. 1 overall seed in the West. Bettors comparing lines across books before locking in a side might also check a DraftKings Promo Code for added value on either side of this spread.

Collier’s Return Changes Everything for Minnesota

The story of Minnesota’s season has been managing without — and now with — Napheesa Collier. After offseason surgery on both ankles delayed her debut, Collier has appeared in just 12 games but is already averaging 18.0 points and 7.3 rebounds while shooting a blistering 49.1% from the field and 46.7% from three. She’s third on the team in scoring behind two players who carried the Lynx in her absence: rookie point guard Olivia Miles, who leads Minnesota at 19.7 points, 6.0 assists and 4.6 rebounds per game, and Kayla McBride, who’s chipping in 18.1 points a night. That kind of three-headed attack is exactly why Minnesota has stayed the class of the West even through a two-game skid heading into this matchup.

New York counters with its own star power. Breanna Stewart is having arguably her best statistical season in years, averaging 20.4 points and 8.1 rebounds while shooting 46.8% from the field — her most efficient mark since 2022. Sabrina Ionescu missed 13 games to injury but has come back strong, posting 15.1 points, 4.8 assists and 4.0 rebounds, and Jonquel Jones has been steady inside with 14.6 points and 9.2 rebounds per game. The problem is depth. Without Sabally, New York’s margin for error against a team as deep as Minnesota shrinks considerably.

Minnesota is 20-3 in Western Conference play, the best in-conference mark in the league.

That number matters here because it reflects a Lynx team built to win exactly these kinds of games — ones where they’re favored at home against quality Eastern Conference competition. New York has been better on the road than most probably realize, going 3-2 in its last five games overall, but Minnesota has answered nearly every real challenge it’s faced in conference play this season. The rebounding battle could be the swing factor, with Jones and Stewart needing to control the glass against a Lynx frontcourt that’s deeper than its recent injury news suggests.

Prediction and Best Bet

This has the shape of a game Minnesota controls for three quarters before New York’s stars make it look closer late. The Lynx’s collective offense — spread across Miles, McBride and a surging Collier — should be too much for a Liberty team missing a key frontcourt piece in Sabally, especially on Minnesota’s home floor where they’ve been nearly unbeatable against conference foes. New York’s talent keeps it within shouting distance, but not enough to complete the upset outright.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Minnesota 84, New York 75
2. Best Bet: Minnesota Lynx -7.5

Minnesota’s depth and home-court dominance make the Lynx a comfortable side to lay the points with here, even against a Liberty team that’s beaten them on the biggest stage before.