Aces-Storm Prediction: Vegas Rolls Into Seattle as Heavy Road Favorite
A'ja Wilson and the playoff-bound Aces face a Storm team that has lost 15 of its last 17. Here's our pick and prediction for Aces-Storm on September 17.
The Las Vegas Aces are rolling into Seattle with a three-game winning streak and nothing left to prove in the standings, while the Storm are just trying to survive the final stretch of a lost season.
Quick take:
- Pick: Las Vegas Aces -8.5
- Why: A playoff-bound Aces team with a healthy A’ja Wilson faces a Storm squad that’s lost 15 of its last 17
- The number to watch: Wilson’s 23.2 points and 8.4 rebounds per game
Las Vegas (27-13) sits third in the Western Conference and has already punched its playoff ticket, while Seattle (8-32) has been eliminated from postseason contention for weeks. The Aces are 14-6 on the road this season and have won three straight, a stretch that includes a blowout of Toronto and a statement win over Connecticut. Seattle, meanwhile, enters at 6-14 at home and has dropped its last two, a 90-74 loss to the Sparks sandwiched around a rare win over Toronto.
Vegas Is a Massive Favorite, and the Market Agrees
Books have the Aces as heavy road favorites, with the spread sitting between -8.5 and -9.5 depending on the shop and the total hovering around 173.5. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Las Vegas a 75.6% win probability, and the moneyline reflects that gap — Vegas is priced as high as -520 in some markets, with Seattle drawing plus-money in the +340 to +390 range. That’s not a line built on name recognition alone; it reflects two teams heading in completely opposite directions in September. DraftKings promo code offers are worth a look if you’re planning to get a bet down on either side of this number.
Wilson and the Aces Have Seattle’s Number
A’ja Wilson has been the driving force behind Las Vegas all year, averaging 23.2 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks a night, and she was dominant the last time these two teams met — a 27-point, 8-rebound outing in the Aces’ 101-91 win back on June 8. That’s the only meeting between these clubs this season, and Las Vegas controlled it from the opening tip. Jackie Young has quietly been just as important to the Aces’ late-season surge, averaging 18.9 points, 6.6 assists, and 4.4 rebounds while shooting a blistering 48.3% from the floor and 38.7% from three.
Seattle’s best answer is rookie center Dominique Malonga, who’s averaging right around 17 points and 9 rebounds a game and has flashed real upside all season. But the Storm rank near the bottom of the league defensively, allowing 88.2 points per game, and they’ve lost 15 of their last 17 outings overall.
The Storm have covered the spread in just 10 of their last 23 games, and they’re 6-14 at home this season.
That home mark matters here. Climate Pledge Arena hasn’t been much of a fortress for Seattle in 2026, and a team playing out the string against a motivated, healthy Aces roster is a tough combination to bet against. Vegas has also won four of the last five head-to-head meetings between these franchises, a trend that lines up with everything else pointing toward a comfortable night for the visitors.
Prediction and Best Bet
Las Vegas has too much talent, too much motivation to stay sharp before the playoffs, and too big of a gap in current form to slip up here. Expect Wilson to control the paint early and the Aces’ bench to pull away in the second half against a Seattle roster playing out a lost season.
The pick:
- Prediction: Las Vegas Aces 90, Seattle Storm 78
- Best Bet: Las Vegas Aces -8.5
The Aces have the star power, the recent form, and the head-to-head edge — this line should hold with room to spare.