Toronto Tempo vs. Seattle Storm Prediction: Malonga’s Surge Powers Storm at Home

Two teams playing out the string meet at Climate Pledge Arena, but only one of them still has a functioning offense right now, and that gap is exactly why Seattle is a heavy favorite at home.

Quick take:

• Pick: Seattle Storm -6.5
• Why: Dominique Malonga has been the best player on the floor in either building for weeks, and Toronto’s offense has gone cold at the worst time
• The number to watch: Malonga’s 17.2 points and 8.7 rebounds per game over her last 10 outings

Toronto arrives at 11-26, sixth in the East and long since eliminated from playoff contention, currently mired in a stretch where they’ve dropped nine of their last 10. Seattle isn’t in much better shape record-wise at 7-31 — the worst mark in the WNBA — but the Storm have found a legitimate building block in rookie center Malonga, and that alone has been enough to make them competitive most nights even while losing three straight.

Why Vegas Still Trusts the Worst Team in the League

The spread has Seattle laying 6.5 to 6.6 points depending on the book, with the moneyline landing anywhere from -215 to -244 for the Storm and Toronto getting as much as +205 on the road. The total sits in the 176.5 to 177.5 range. That’s a lot of respect for a team with the league’s worst record, but it reflects where these two rosters are trending, not just the win-loss column — Seattle’s per-game numbers (87.3 points scored, 82.9 allowed) actually rank better across the board than Toronto’s in several key efficiency categories, including rebounding and blocks.

Malonga Has Turned Seattle’s Season Around Late

The story here is simple: Dominique Malonga has been playing like a franchise piece down the stretch. She’s averaging 17.0 points, 8.9 rebounds and 1.5 blocks a game on the season, and those numbers have actually ticked up over her last 10 appearances to 17.2 points and 8.7 boards a night. Natisha Hiedeman has complemented her well, putting up 15.4 points and 4.8 assists a game while shooting a respectable 33.7% from three, giving Seattle a legitimate one-two punch even on a roster that’s lost more games than anyone else in the league.

Toronto’s counter starts with Julie Allemand, who’s quietly been efficient all year — 6.3 points and 5.6 assists on 54.3% shooting and a scorching 42.4% from three. Kiki Rice has been Toronto’s brightest spot lately, scoring 12.2 points a game over her last 10 while shooting 47.3%, and Laura Juškaitė and Isabelle Harrison both chip in around 10-12 points a night. The problem is depth and consistency — Toronto just snapped a 12-game skid with a win over the Fire before beating Portland, only to fall right back into a slump with a 78-88 loss to Las Vegas their last time out.

Seattle out-rebounds its opponents at a top-six clip in the league (33.7 per game) while Toronto ranks 13th in that category.

That rebounding gap matters against a Toronto team that’s already thin on the interior. Isabelle Harrison and Nyara Sabally are steady if unspectacular, but neither profiles as a matchup problem for Malonga, who’s shooting nearly 49% from the floor and getting to the line at a much higher rate than she did as a rookie earlier this season. Second-chance points could be the quiet difference-maker in this one.

Prediction and Best Bet

Seattle’s recent losing streak is more about a brutal remaining schedule than a lack of competitiveness — Dallas just blew them out 92-70, but that came on the second night of a stretch against a playoff-caliber opponent. Against a Toronto team on a 1-9 run and clearly out of gas, the Storm’s size advantage and Malonga’s recent surge should be enough to cover at home. Bettors who like betting on player props should check the Expected Value (EV) Calculator before locking in anything involving Malonga’s rebound total, given how consistently she’s been clearing that number lately.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Seattle Storm 88, Toronto Tempo 79
2. Best Bet: Seattle Storm -6.5

Seattle’s frontcourt advantage and Toronto’s fatigue down the stretch make this a comfortable cover for the home team.