Golden State Valkyries vs. Connecticut Sun Prediction: Valkyries Should Roll at Mohegan Sun
The Golden State Valkyries are massive road favorites over a shorthanded Connecticut Sun squad on Wednesday night. Here's our full prediction and best bet.
Golden State has won seven of its last ten games and clinched a playoff spot; Connecticut is playing out the string on a 2-13 mark inside its own conference — this is as lopsided a matchup as the WNBA schedule offers down the stretch.
Quick take:
- Pick: Golden State Valkyries -13.5
- Why: The Valkyries are locked into second place in the West and rolling, while the Sun are missing multiple frontcourt pieces and playing out a lost season
- The number to watch: Connecticut is 2-13 in true road/road-style conference games and has lost eight of its last ten
Golden State (26-11) sits second in the Western Conference, four games back of Minnesota’s league-best mark, and enters Mohegan Sun Arena fresh off an 80-66 road win over the Lynx on Monday. Connecticut (9-27) is mired at the bottom of the East, already eliminated from playoff contention, and has dropped 18 of its last 20 outings dating back to July.
The betting market has treated this one accordingly.
A Number That Tells the Whole Story
Sportsbooks have installed Golden State as a massive favorite, with the spread sitting around 13.5 points and moneyline prices on the Valkyries stretching well into the -800 to -900 range depending on the book. Connecticut is priced anywhere from +570 to +700 to pull the upset. That’s not a typo — it’s a reflection of just how far apart these two rosters are right now, both in the standings and on the injury report.
Why the Valkyries Should Cover Comfortably
Golden State has quietly built one of the WNBA’s best defenses in its inaugural season, holding opponents to 76.3 points per game, and that number should look even better against a Sun offense that’s struggled to find consistent scoring all year. Gabby Williams has been the engine for Golden State of late, averaging 14.4 points, 3.3 rebounds and 2.1 assists on the season and coming off a 15-point, five-rebound, three-assist performance in the win over Minnesota. Veronica Burton leads the team in assists at 5.6 per game, and Kiah Stokes anchors the interior at 5.4 rebounds and 1.7 blocks a night, giving Golden State the two-way infrastructure to control tempo against a shorthanded opponent.
Connecticut, meanwhile, is dealing with a genuinely thin roster. Olivia Nelson-Ododa is out with a knee injury, Brittney Griner has been questionable with knee soreness of her own, and floor general Leila Lacan is away from the team entirely, representing France at the FIBA World Cup for a stretch of games that includes this one. Aneesah Morrow (8.9 rebounds per game) and Griner (13.2 points per game when available) are the only Sun regulars operating anywhere near full strength, and it’s simply not enough depth to hang with a Golden State team playing meaningful basketball in late August.
Connecticut has lost eight of its last ten games and enters this one 2-13 within its own conference.
That kind of freefall matters against a team like the Valkyries, who have won seven of ten and are battle-tested from a stretch run in a crowded Western Conference chase. Golden State has also won each of its last three meetings with Connecticut, including a 15-point win the last time these two teams played, and there’s little in either team’s recent form to suggest tonight looks any different. If you’re weighing a same-game total, note that four of Golden State’s last five games have gone under the posted number — a sign this could stay a grinding, defense-first affair even with the spread this lopsided, which is worth factoring in if you’re also shopping FanDuel promo code offers before placing a same-game parlay.
Prediction and Best Bet
Golden State’s defense, depth and playoff-caliber execution should be too much for a Connecticut team playing without three regular contributors. The Sun have shown some fight at home this season, but a 13.5-point cushion is a lot to ask against a team playing this well.
The pick:
- Prediction: Golden State Valkyries 84, Connecticut Sun 66
- Best Bet: Golden State Valkyries -13.5
Take the Valkyries to cover comfortably in a game where the talent gap should show up on the scoreboard from the opening tip.