Las Vegas Aces vs. Toronto Tempo Prediction: A’ja Wilson and Aces Should Roll Past Shorthanded Tempo

A’ja Wilson and a playoff-clinched roster on one side, a shorthanded expansion team clinging to its final weeks of season on the other — this one isn’t close on paper, and the numbers back that up.

Quick take:

• Pick: Las Vegas Aces -13.5
• Why: Toronto is missing multiple rotation pieces and has lost nine of its last ten while Las Vegas has a top-three defense in the league
• The number to watch: A’ja Wilson is averaging 25.9 points and 9.5 rebounds a night, numbers that have her squarely in the MVP conversation again

The Aces (25-13) sit third in the Western Conference and have already locked up a playoff spot, riding a one-game win streak into Toronto. The Tempo (11-25) are stuck in sixth in the East, and Sunday’s matinee at Rogers Arena is one of the final tune-ups before the postseason field is set. Las Vegas beat this same Toronto team 109-83 back on July 20, and little about either roster’s trajectory since then suggests a closer result this time.

Why the Spread Is Sitting Near Two Touchdowns

Books have installed the Aces as roughly 13.5-point favorites, with moneyline pricing in the -1000 to -1250 range and Toronto sitting out near +710 to +750. The total has settled in the 180-183 range depending on the shop. That’s a massive number for a WNBA spread, but it’s not out of line with how lopsided this season series and these two rosters have looked — Las Vegas is 18-18 against the spread this year, a fairly middling cover rate that suggests the market has been pricing the Aces accurately rather than overreacting to name recognition.

A Banged-Up Tempo Roster Meets a Locked-In Aces Group

Toronto enters Sunday dealing with a rash of injuries that have gutted its rotation down the stretch. Aneesah Morrow, the team’s leading rebounder at 6.6 boards a game, has been dealing with a knee issue, and Brittney Sykes has been in and out with a foot injury. Marina Mabrey, Toronto’s leading scorer at 20.8 points per game, missed time with an adductor strain, and forward Maria Conde (calf) and Nyara Sabally (calf, in a walking boot) have both been sidelined. When your top four scoring and rebounding options are all fighting through something at once, covering a double-digit spread against a healthy contender gets close to impossible.

Las Vegas, by contrast, is rolling into this game with its core intact. A’ja Wilson is putting together arguably her best statistical season yet — 25.9 points, 9.5 rebounds, 2.0 blocks a night on 51.8% shooting — and is squarely in the mix for a fifth MVP award as the year winds down. Jackie Young has been the steady second option, averaging 18.7 points and 6.6 assists and coming off a 24-point outing in a 101-78 win over Connecticut last Thursday. The Aces have alternated wins and losses over their last five, dropping games to Minnesota and Atlanta but bouncing back each time, which points to a team still finding its rhythm heading into the playoffs rather than one that’s fragile.

Toronto has lost nine of its last ten games and is 1-9 over that stretch entering Sunday.

That kind of freefall against a team allowing just 87.1 points per game on the road doesn’t scream upset. Las Vegas is 13-6 away from home this season, and a Tempo group already without several key rotation pieces figures to struggle generating enough easy looks to keep pace.

Prediction and Best Bet

Wilson and Young should be able to control this one from the opening tip, and Toronto’s lack of healthy depth makes a sustained response unlikely. Bettors looking at the moneyline can also check current DraftKings promo code offers before placing anything on this slate.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Las Vegas Aces 96, Toronto Tempo 79
2. Best Bet: Las Vegas Aces -13.5

The health gap alone is enough to lean heavily on the favorite here, and Las Vegas has the horses to cover comfortably.