Seattle Storm vs New York Liberty Prediction: Liberty’s Depth Should Cover Big Number

Seattle’s nine-game losing streak runs into a New York Liberty team that just beat them by 12 two nights ago and hasn’t shown any sign of letting up since.

Quick take:

• Pick: New York Liberty -9.5
• Why: The Storm are 15th in the league at 6-26 and just lost to this same Liberty team by 12 on Monday
• The number to watch: New York’s offense ranks 2nd in the WNBA in efficiency at 109.6 points per 100 possessions

The Liberty (18-13) host Seattle (6-26) at Barclays Center on Wednesday night, and this one has the shape of a get-well game for a New York club trying to lock down playoff seeding down the stretch. The Storm, meanwhile, are riding a nine-game losing skid that has buried them near the bottom of the standings, and Monday’s 95-83 loss to this exact opponent did nothing to suggest a turnaround is close.

New York has won seven of the last ten head-to-head meetings between these two franchises, and the roster gap has only widened this season — the Liberty sit 5th in the league standings while the Storm are 15th. Monday’s meeting was the eighth straight loss for Seattle at the time, and nothing about the Storm’s approach in that game suggested they found an answer for New York’s size and depth.

New York Is Being Priced Like a Team With Nothing to Prove

The Liberty opened as roughly -9.5 favorites with the total sitting near 181.5, and the moneyline has settled in the -400 to -500 range depending on the book, with Seattle drifting out to as long as +360. That’s about as lopsided as WNBA moneylines get, and the market isn’t wrong to price it that way — New York is 9-5 at home while Seattle owns the league’s worst road mark at 2-15.

Stewart and Jones Are Doing Damage Seattle Can’t Match

Breanna Stewart is averaging 21.4 points and 8.4 rebounds a night while shooting 47.2% from the floor, and she’s coming off a 36-point outburst in New York’s Commissioner’s Cup title win over Las Vegas. Jonquel Jones has quietly been just as important, putting up 14.6 points and 9.1 rebounds a game and racking up double-doubles at a steady clip — she had 14 points and 15 boards in a win over Minnesota last week. Sabrina Ionescu adds 15.6 points and 3.9 assists, and with Leonie Fiebich back in the mix after missing time with a foot issue, New York’s rotation is about as deep as it’s been all season.

Seattle’s top scorer, Nika Hiedeman, is putting up 16.1 points and 4.6 assists a night, and Fisher Johnson is chipping in 13.8 points, but the Storm are shooting a rough 39.2% from the floor as a team and have lost nine straight by an average margin that keeps climbing. New York also grades out 2nd in the league defensively, allowing just 79.8 points per 100 possessions — a tough matchup for a Seattle offense already struggling to find any rhythm.

The Liberty’s efficiency numbers back up the eye test. New York ranks 2nd in effective field goal percentage at 54.5% and 5th in three-point shooting at 35.9%, giving Natalie Nakase’s group multiple ways to hurt a Seattle defense that has been porous for weeks. The Storm rank near the bottom of the league defensively as well, which is part of why New York has cleared 94 points in four of its last five games. Seattle’s own defensive numbers have cratered during the losing streak, allowing opponents to shoot well above league average from the field, and that trend lines up poorly against a Liberty roster with legitimate size at every position.

Depth is another factor working against Seattle here. New York can turn to Marine Johannes, Pauline Astier and a healthy Fiebich off the bench without much drop-off, while Seattle’s rotation has been stretched thin during the losing stretch. That kind of cushion matters over 40 minutes, especially when the favorite is already dictating pace and forcing a shorthanded opponent to play from behind for most of the night.

The Storm have lost nine consecutive games and are 2-15 on the road this season.

That kind of freefall doesn’t fix itself against a team playing for playoff position. New York is 2-0 in its last two and has scored at least 94 points in four of its last five outings, a pace that should be plenty against a Seattle defense that’s been unable to slow anybody down during the skid.

Prediction and Best Bet

New York’s blend of size inside with Jones and Stewart, playmaking from Ionescu, and a top-five defense should be enough to cover a number that, while big, matches the real gap between these two rosters right now. Seattle has shown flashes of competing in single quarters during the losing streak, but not the sustained execution needed to hang for 40 minutes against a team this complete.

The pick:

1. Prediction: New York Liberty 96, Seattle Storm 83
2. Best Bet: New York Liberty -9.5

Fans looking to get in on the action can check the latest FanDuel promo code before tipoff. New York’s roster edge is simply too large for Seattle to overcome on the road.