Liberty vs. Aces Prediction: A’ja Wilson and Las Vegas Look to Cover as Road Weary New York Visits Michelob ULTRA Arena

A’ja Wilson has beaten almost everybody in the WNBA this season — except the team standing across from her Thursday night.

Quick take:

• Pick: Las Vegas Aces -4.5
• Why: The Aces are simply the deeper, more dominant team over the last 10 games, and New York’s road defense hasn’t held up
• The number to watch: Wilson is averaging 26.2 points, 9.7 rebounds, 1.6 steals and 2.0 blocks over her last 10 games

The New York Liberty (16-12) head into Michelob ULTRA Arena on Thursday night to face A’ja Wilson and the Las Vegas Aces (19-8), and on paper this looks like a rematch of last year’s playoff intensity. But this season has told a different story so far. New York has actually won two straight in this series — an 87-76 road win back in June and a 93-85 decision at Barclays Center — and the Liberty enter having just knocked off the Los Angeles Sparks 113-109 behind a 29-point night from Breanna Stewart.

Still, Las Vegas has been the better team over the long haul this year, sitting atop the Western Conference at 19-8 while New York is fighting to hold serve in the East at 16-12. The Aces have won 8 of their last 10 games. The Liberty have gone just 4-6 in that same stretch.

Why the Market Has Vegas as a Clear Favorite

Oddsmakers have Las Vegas favored by 4.5 points, with the total sitting at 182.5. The Aces’ moneyline sits around -195 to -213 depending on the book, while New York is priced anywhere from +153 to +172 — a fairly resounding vote of confidence in the home team from a market that’s watched Las Vegas control most of its matchups this season. Las Vegas has won 19 of 27 games this year when installed as the moneyline favorite, a 70.4% clip that speaks to just how reliably this roster performs when it’s supposed to win.

Wilson’s Workload Against New York’s Tired Legs

The head-to-head history favors New York — the Liberty have won 8 of the last 10 meetings between these two franchises, largely on the strength of Stewart’s ability to match Wilson possession for possession. But recent form is pulling hard in the other direction. Over their last 10 games, the Aces are averaging 94.7 points on 50.8% shooting while holding opponents to just 87.0 points per game. New York, over the same stretch, is averaging only 90.2 points on 45.5% shooting and has allowed opponents to hang 94.1 points a night — almost the exact inverse of Las Vegas’ numbers.

Jackie Young has quietly been one of the most important pieces of the Aces’ surge, averaging 17.0 points and 6.6 assists and giving Las Vegas a second table-setter alongside Wilson so defenses can’t simply load up on the MVP candidate. Stewart is still doing her job for New York at 21.4 points and 8.4 rebounds per game, and Sabrina Ionescu has been hitting 2.8 threes a night over the last 10 contests, but the supporting numbers around them haven’t matched what Las Vegas is getting from its depth.

Las Vegas makes 49.3% of its shots from the field this season — 4.2 percentage points higher than what New York’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot all year.

That efficiency gap matters more on the road than it does at home. New York has been noticeably worse away from Barclays Center, scoring 85.0 points per game at home but slipping in raw offensive punch on the road, while its defense has ballooned from 80.8 points allowed at home to a much shakier number away from New York. Meanwhile, Las Vegas has actually been a bit better offensively away from Michelob ULTRA Arena, averaging 93.3 points on the road compared to 89.1 at home — a sign this Aces group travels well and isn’t relying on a friendly building to get its buckets. New York’s injury report includes Satou Sabally (day-to-day, concussion protocol) and Leonie Fiebich (out, foot), which thins out a wing rotation that was already stretched thin defending Wilson and Young for 40 minutes.

Las Vegas isn’t unscathed either — Janiah Barker is out for the season and NaLyssa Smith is day-to-day — but the Aces’ top-end talent gap with Wilson at the center of everything gives them more margin to absorb those losses than New York has to overcome its own.

Prediction and Best Bet

Wilson has been the best player in the league over the last 10 games, and the supporting numbers — shooting percentage, points allowed, home-and-away splits — all point toward Las Vegas controlling the pace and the glass in front of its own crowd. New York has enough firepower in Stewart and Ionescu to keep this competitive into the fourth quarter, but not enough depth on the wing to hang with the Aces’ complementary scoring for a full 40 minutes.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Las Vegas Aces 96, New York Liberty 89
2. Best Bet: Aces -4.5

Bettors weighing the moneyline over the spread should check the latest number on the DraftKings promo code before locking in, since the line has moved throughout the week.