The final Grand Slam of the year has arrived as the US Open kicks off on Monday in Queens, New York. Before we get into the draw, we’ll touch on a few of the major storylines coming into the tournament.
Firstly, the Jannik Sinner PED fiasco has become public but is seemingly being swept under the rug. Sinner was found to have “accidentally” used a banned substance but has avoided any suspension.
The banned substance violation was from back in March but I’m curious if there will be any mental effects on Sinner now that the public is aware. On top of this, Sinner has seemingly taken a step back in his fitness/durability.
On the other side of the draw, Novak Djokovic looks to secure his 25th slam this summer with speculation that he might call it a career on the heels of his Olympic Gold and potential 25th slam.
3 seed Carlos Alcaraz is a bit of a question mark heading into this tournament given his last performance in Cincinnati. Alcaraz hasn’t played much since winning the French Open and Wimbledon back-to-back, with his only tour-level match being a 3-set loss to Gael Monfils.
We witnessed unseen frustration from Alcaraz in this one, smashing his racket before eventually going down to Gael Monfils, who is way past his prime at this stage of his career.
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We’ll begin our draw analysis in Q1 where Jannik Sinner is a deserving -165 favorite. Despite being the #1 seed, Sinner doesn’t exactly have a favorable draw, with potentially difficult matchups in round four against Tommy Paul and a QF likely against Daniil Medvedev. These are two players who should enjoy the medium-fast conditions at the US Open and have beaten Sinner in the past.
Again, part of the concern here is Sinner’s durability and the lingering injuries he’s been carrying since the French Open. Potentially long matches against Tommy Paul and Medvedev don’t help his prospects in a semi-final matchup with Carlos Alcaraz. There will be a lot of noise surrounding Jannik Sinner this week in New York and I wouldn’t be surprised to hear more injury complaints coming out of his camp.
While Sinner’s talent is unquestionable, I don’t think +350 is a big enough price to consider him outright and I’m certainly not laying money with him in this quarter. Medvedev has a fairly straightforward path to the quarterfinal where the only seeded player he could see would be Stefanos Tsitsipas or Felix Auger-Alliasime, neither of which I would consider a challenge to Medvedev at this venue. (Tsitsipas could be eliminated in the first round by Kokkinakis.)
Bet365 is offering +100 for Medvedev to reach the QF, which is a bet I support. I don’t think the 3/1 tag on him to win the quarter is big enough given that he’ll be a decent sized underdog to Sinner.
Q1 Prediction: Daniil Medvedev
Bets: Medvedev to reach QF (+100) *1% bankroll
Moving to Q2, this one is headlined by Carlos Alcaraz, sitting at -230 to win the quarter. While Q2 has some decent names, I don’t think anyone is on Alcaraz’s caliber. We do have some concerns about his form but as Carlos has done throughout the season, I expect him to build up his form throughout the tournament. Alcaraz did look to tweak his ankle in practice on Friday but has assured the media that he is fine and it won’t affect him.
Assuming that this is true, Alcaraz is the tournament favorite, with an odds on price of +200. Despite Alcaraz’s dominance, Q2 is a spot where I’m looking to take a shot. Alex de Minaur hasn’t played at the tour level since suffering a hip injury in the fourth round of Wimbledon. De Minaur seems to be fit enough for the US Open and was rewarded with a relatively easy draw. The earliest seeded player he can face is Karen Khachanov, who is woefully out of form. He could then match up with Matteo Arnaldi or Hubert Hurkacz, who is also coming off injury.
Although unseeded, we could end up seeing Roman Safiullin or Jordan Thompson in the fourth round facing de Minaur. I can’t see how Sebastian Korda is priced lower than de Minaur here, as Korda will have to face Alcaraz a round earlier in the draw.
I’m taking a shot at de Minaur at 11/1 as this number is just way too big for a player I find likely to appear in the QF. Bet365 is offering +350 for that appearance. You can find de Minaur as big as 150/1 in the outright markets, which is just an absurd price. With all the question marks in the top half of the draft, I’m happy to take a shot here and root for some chaos in the draw.
Q2 Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz
Bets: de Minaur to reach QF (+350) *0.5%, de Minaur to win Q2 (11/1) *0.5%, de Minaur outright (150/1) *0.25%
This might be the most interesting quarter in the draw, with none of the “big three” in the quarter. Alex Zverev headlines the quarter with a +120 price. Casper Ruud is the next highest seed here, but his lack of success on the quicker American hardcourt swing has been well documented. He’s also been ill apparently (maybe after spending the summer partying and golfing) which could affect his preparedness.
Despite this, Ruud is a former finalist here and could take advantage of an easy start to the tournament, before facing more difficult opponents in round four. The player I see most likely to come out of the top half of the quarter is Taylor Fritz, who you can bet at +650 to win Q2. A big reason why this line is so inflated is his second round matchup against Matteo Berrettini, a former top ten player, who is still building back his ranking after injury.
While Berrettini has a ton of talent, Fritz edges him on the hard court data and will still be a decent favorite in that matchup. In the bottom half of the quarter Zverev avoids any big names until playing Holger Rune in round four. Rune’s form looked to finally be improving in Cincinnati, but he doesn’t play his best tennis in best of five format and has yet to make an impact at the US Open.
I think a matchup between Fritz and Zverev would likely be priced tighter than the quarter prices imply, so I find some value in Fritz’s +650 price. Zverev has struggled with a lingering knee injury in 2024, yet has been extremely competitive at all slams and took home the title at the Rome masters. I think Fritz will be a bigger favorite in most matches than books are implying because of this Berrettini matchup and therefore will be taking a piece of him to win Q3 at +650.
Prediction: Taylor Fritz
Bets: Taylor Fritz to win Q3 (+650) *0.5%
The Novak Djokovic quarter. Here is where we have our biggest question mark of the tournament which is; what level will we see from Djokovic? He doesn’t have a difficult draw, per say, but could run into some tricky matchups early on, with Jan Lennard Struff, Alexei Popyrin, and Ben Shelton in the cards for him before facing either Andrey Rublev or Grigor Dimitrov in the QF. (I’d consider Jiri Lehecka a long shot but a possibility as well).
Djokovic is past playing at his best level, but we did see him put out his best effort to win the gold for Serbia, defeating Carlos Alcaraz in a rematch of the Wimbledon final. I’m not willing to back Djokovic at a price of +250 at this point in his career. He’s a deserving -230 favorite to win the quarter and I don’t see anyone in the market worth opposing him for. He’d likely be a favorite against Taylor Fritz or Alexander Zverev barring any injury, resulting in a -125 price to make the final.
We’ve seen a slightly inconsistent level from Djokovic on a match by match basis throughout 2024, so I think you’ll find a better opportunity to back Djokovic in the live markets or in the latter stages of this tournament. It’s a good, not great draw for him, but I think he will eventually pull through and put himself in position to compete for that 25th slam.
Prediction: Novak Djokovic
Bets: N/A
Semifinal: Alcaraz defeats Medvedev, Djokovic defeats Fritz
Final: Alcaraz defeats Djokovic