The culmination of the European clay court season has arrived with the 2024 French Open kicking off in Paris. There are quite a few storylines to follow in this tournament, which we’ll outline here before going into our quarter by quarter draw analysis.
The highlight is that this is Rafael Nadal’s final tournament at Roland Garros, as the greatest clay courter in the sports’ history is calling it a career after this appearance. We’ll get into Nadal’s chances later on, but I think we’re in store for a very interesting tournament given the form of the top contenders.
#1 seed Novak Djokovic has not been in the best of form, especially since being hit in the head with a metal water bottle (accidentally) in Rome. While I doubt that’s still affecting his play, we haven’t seen Djokovic’s top level as he too approaches the twilight of his career.
#2 seed Jannik Sinner and #3 seed Carlos Alcaraz still seek their first career slam on clay but are dealing with a hip and arm injury, respectively. We’ll get into who can benefit and who we will be backing to win the 2024 Men’s French Open.
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The big question in this one will be can you trust Novak Djokovic? Djokovic hasn’t looked himself this clay season, especially since the Rome water bottle incident. He lost to Casper Ruud, the other top seed in this quarter, at Monte Carlo, before losing to Tabilo and Machac at Rome and Geneva respectively.
Despite this, Djokovic has a cakewalk draw up until a potential quarter final matchup against Taylor Fritz or Casper Ruud. I fully expect Ruud to make it through based on the clay form he’s shown in 2024. He’s currently +250 to win the quarter and 12/1 to win the tournament.
I’m curious how the books will price him versus Djokovic and although I expect him to be a slight underdog, +250 is likely a much better price. Taylor Fritz has shown some decent clay form in 2024, but I still don’t think he’s suited for these conditions.
Fritz’ best clay showings have been at elevated locations and Roland Garros’ slower surface will limit his serve power. I think Casper Ruud will come out of the quarter and will be betting him at 12/1 to win the tournament.
The worst case scenario sees him face a path of Djokovic/Zverev/Alcaraz. I think there will be enough mayhem in the draw to open up the equity in this 12/1 position, but I’m happy with 12/1 to go through that list with 2 of the 3 out of form.
Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev lead this quarter but the real headliner will be the Zverev and Nadal matchup in the first round. While it is possible that Nadal turns back the clock and pushes Zverev in this matchup, I have a hard time seeing him win it.
Plus, given Nadal’s rapidly deteriorating condition, I think it’s a better storyline to see him lose to a top player rather than go out to a wildcard. Holger Rune also finds himself in this quarter but I cannot back him at his current form. He could be out as early as the second round against Cobolli.
Rune is a big talent that desperately needs to get his head together if he’s going to contend at bigger tournaments. While I think Zverev is the class of this quarter and is the deserving favorite, I have my eye on Jan Lennard Struff. We’re getting 10/1 for him to make it out of the quarter.
He’s on Medvedev’s side of the quarter, avoiding Zverev/Rune. Medvedev has shown flashes on the clay but I don’t have high expectations for him. This second quarter has the most potential for a high priced player to sneak through and reach the QF.
Zverev is too short of a price to take on an outright or quarter price, so I’m rolling with Struff for 0.25 unit at 10/1
The third quarter might be the most difficult to call. Obviously, Alcaraz sits atop the pricing at -140 but I can’t back him at that price given the arm/elbow injury question marks. He hasn’t looked good since March and it’s unclear how hard he will push himself given the question marks around the injury.
It’s entirely possible that Alcaraz has had enough time to rest and plays himself back into his top form during the first week of the tournament. I’d rather start to back him match by match later in this tournament than lay these prices that assume he is healthy.
Andrey Rublev has come back into form after a big losing streak this year, but he still hasn't been able to pass the QF in a Grand Slam in his career. Stefanos Tsitsipas is always a threat here but is another player constantly dealing with off the court distractions.
He won Monte Carlo which feels like months ago but has been competitive in most appearances since. I don’t like him at these short prices as he’ll likely need to get through both Rublev and Alcaraz to win the quarter.
There are multiple heart-courters with power littered through this section of the draw, which will provide some good opportunities to fade them at larger prices in the early rounds. Looking at Seb Korda, Ben Shelton, FAA, and Ugo Humbert.
The Sinner quarter. Here’s another quarter with a ton of opportunity because of how lop-sided it is. Jannik Sinner has a super easy path to the QF but his injury is likely the most serious of those mentioned earlier.
Sinner’s biggest issue in his young career has been his durability and I have a hard time believing his camp will allow him to risk his long term health over his hip injury. He’s technically been cleared by his doctors but the news out of his camp has seemed like he’s really battling through despite the designation.
I can’t back him as the short shot favorite in this quarter despite the draw. That being said, are we really going to back Hubert Hurkacz to win this quarter on clay? I think you’ll get a fair enough price on Hurkacz later in this tournament to back him, especially if Sinner has some early wins that push him five sets.
9/1 looks to be a good price on Hurkacz, expecting that Sinner won’t be healthy enough to finish the tournament. Without guaranteeing that, I’m leaving this price alone for now but will be circling back during the week.