Tennis Wednesday - Abrams picks Men’s and Women’s Matches from Noventi Open, Fever-Tree Championships, Mallorca Open, Nature Valley Classic
Rain washed out almost all play at Queens Club in London, so today should be a blockbuster of a day there. My Men’s picks posted Tuesday for Queens Club stand for Wednesday (and are listed below), but I’ve added below my picks for the Women playing in Mallorca, Spain, and Birmingham, England (where they had no rain), and the Men playing in Halle, Germany, along with an additional pick for Queens Club that I didn’t post yesterday.
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MEN
Noventi Open
Halle, Germany
David Goffin over Radu Albot
I thought David Goffin had last week’s tournament in The Netherlands won when he reached the quarters, but he got knocked out by red-hot Frenchman Adrian Mannarino on his way to his first ATP title. Here, Goffin came out and totally destroyed Guido Pella, which is tough to do, so he must be sky high right now. Albot took out Britain’s tough (on grass) Matt Ebden, but Goffin is on a completely different level than Ebden. I’m going with the Belgian, who already holds a 2-0 record over Albot.
Pierre-Hugues Herbert over Sergiy Stakhovsky
Pierre-Hugues Herbert is now showcasing his singles game, and he beat countryman Gael Monfils in straight sets, while qualifier Sergiy Stakhovsky beat German 18-year-old wild card Rudolf Molleker in three. The relative strength of the beaten opponents says it all. Herbert should have no trouble with the Ukrainian, who has had no luck in solving the Frenchman’s game in their previous two matches.
Borna Coric over Joao Sousa
Coric is now 20-11 for the year, while Sousa is only 11-17, after his first round win over Hubert Hurkacz. In fact, that win over Hurkacz might be Sousa’s best win of 2019, but his run of one stops here. Coric, the 4th seed here, should have his way with the 71st ranked Sousa, the Spaniard who was born in Portugal.
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Fever-Tree Championships
Queens Club/London, Great Britain
Lucas Pouille over Jay Clarke
Although Lucas Pouille has been maddeningly inconsistent this year, I’ve gotta believe that he’s got enough talent and experience to take out British wild-card, 20-year-old Jay Clarke. This will be Clarke’s first Tour matches this year, and he only has four matches to his name, so he is inexperienced and should be nervous. Pouille won’t be either of those things. It might take the Frenchman a bit to get used to the grass, but he should win this, thank the Draw Gods for his good fortune, and get ready for Thursday.
(Following Matches Postponed from Tuesday)
Stan Wawrinka over Daniel Evans
Evans has had a great come-back year after serving a one-year cocaine suspension and will be playing in front of his hometown crowd, but Wawrinka showed in Paris that he has his “A” game back. Wawrinka should triumph, but Evans is dangerous.
Juan Martin del Potro over Denis Shapovalov
This is a really tough draw for both of these guys, but I like del Potro because of the intangibles. As long as del Potro is healthy, his game on grass should be too tough for the rising Canadian star. The Argentine’s serve, booming forehand, and slice backhand should be able to dominate the exciting, all-court game and movement of Shapovalov, a future champion just biding his time.
Stefanos Tsitsipas over Kyle Edmund
Tsitsipas has already proclaimed himself as one of the two or three NexGen players who will succeed to the throne of the Big Three over the next couple of years as they age and retire. I think he’s right. His game is beautiful to watch, but also very effective, and should be too much for the fight in England’s own Kyle Edmund. Edmund knows how to play on grass, but it’s hard to beat a better player, and the Greek God is the better player.
Grigor Dimitrov over Felix Auger-Aliassime
FA2 has become one of the very best players in the world, bursting on the scene over the past eight months or so. At No. 21 − at age 18 − he is the highest ranked teen on the ATP Tour that has a few teens knocking at the door. But Dimitrov, who has struggled immensely in 2019, looks like he has regained most of the magic that he showed when he was ranked in the Top Five. He lost in Paris in three straight tie-breakers to Wawrinka in one of the best matches of the tournament, and appears ready to break out. Whereas usually I’d go with FA2, because he’s become such a force on Tour, I think Dimitrov has put in the work and effort to win this match.
Milos Raonic over Marco Cecchinato
Raonic just pulled out of a semifinal matchup with FA2 last week, citing injury, so I don’t know if he’s healthy. At this time of the year, players have a tendency to get a bit scared at any small physical concern that they think might keep them out of Wimbledon, which is important from the aspect of both ranking points and prize money. If Raonic pulled out last week because of a little nagging injury, then I like him over Cecchinato. If, in fact, his shoulder, which has bugged him all Spring, is back as a real injury, then Cecchinato should dig this out.
Adrian Mannarino over Nick Kyrgios
Okay, I have to say it again. If Kyrgios is healthy, both mentally and physically, and he’s willing to compete because he wants to win, he will. He has the best game of any player on the planet when he’s right. But he is rarely − if ever − right, and you can never count on him wanting to put in the work to win. So I’m going with Adrian Mannarino, who won his first ATP tournament of his career last week, at age 30.
Alex de Minaur over Aljaz Bedene
De Minaur, the young Aussie who burst on the global scene in the Australian Open, is a pure grass court player, and that will be more than enough to beat Bedene, who likes the slow red stuff. But de Minaur is not match tough, so I expect this to be more than a battle than it really has to be.
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WOMEN
Mallorca Open
Mallorda, Spain
Sofia Kenin over Ons Jabeur
This shouldn’t last terribly long. American Sofia Kenin is playing well, having knocked off Serena Williams in Paris, and Kirsten Flipkens here Tuesday, in straight sets, 2 and 3. Ons Jabeur overcame qualifier Kaja Juvan, 5 and 6, here in Spain to set up this second round match. These two have played three times with Kenin winning two of those three. Because Kenin is hot, and is playing with a lot of confidence, I like the Russian born American to take out Jabeur, from Tunisia, in quick work.
Elise Mertens over Sam Stosur
I’m surprised that Aussie Sam Stosur was able to overcome Father Time and Saisai Zheng together in the first round. But Stosur, who has a pair of guns for arms, is from Down Under, where they specialize in grass court tennis. So even if she’s been traveling the world on Tour for 20 years (!!!) she hasn’t forgotten where she came from. But Elise Mertens will be too much of a mountain for Stosur to climb. After all, Stosur’s prime was between 2009-2012. Mertens is ranked No. 22 and is the 5th seed here, and I think her recent form dictates that she should get by the aging Aussie.
Anastasija Sevastova over Ajla Tomljanovic
Last year these two squared off in the quarters here with Sevastova taking a tough three-setter from Tomljanovic, 3-6, 6-3, 6-1. I think you can expect pretty much more of the same this year. Neither player has a particularly good record on grass, and they’re playing on a reasonably even keel this year. But Sevastova has a much better ranking, which shows that she has won more big matches than Tomljanovic, who lives in Australia. I like Sevastova because of her recent form. But since neither is great on grass, this could be very close.
Alison Van Uytvanck over Yafan Wang
Belgian Alison Van Uytvanck is ranked No. 57 and China’s Yafan Wang is ranked No. 58, so this match could be called “the match for No. 57”. There’s not much between these two, and they each own a win in their two-match lifetime history. Like in a lot of grass court matches, I think the surface will make the difference, as Van Uytvanck owns the win in the only match played between the two on the green stuff. Although Van Uytvanck is not the fastest woman on the Tour, she hits hard and deep, and that will pay off in this match. Wang is best on hard courts, her record showing that both clay and grass present competitive challenges for her, probably because Chinese players are brought up on hard courts. When Wang learns the nuances of playing on different surfaces she will be a Top 30 player.
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Nature Valley Classic
Birmingham, Great Britain
Karolina Pliskova over Kristyna Pliskova
The Pliskova twins, from the Czech Republic, represent two ends of the WTA rankings. Karolina, the 6-foot-1 right ander, is currently ranked No. 3 in the world, and is a former No. 1, while Kristyna, a 6-foot lefty, is currently ranked No. 112, and had to win three qualifying matches to make the main draw here in England. Although this will be the first time these two have squared off against each other in a WTA main draw match, Karolina has a 5-4 official record over her sister in all matches, according to the WTA, but all of those matches took place in 2012 or earlier. Karolina is clearly the better player, and I’d have to go with her in this match, but when sisters, particularly twins, play, anything goes because of the emotions involved.
Johanna Konta over Jelena Ostapenko
It’s nice to see that Ostapenko won her first-round match. In fact, she only gave up two games in topping qualifier Iga Swiatek. Johanna Konta, on the other hand, had little trouble in disposing of the tough Anett Kontaveit, 4 and 2. Konta is hot, having a Spring run surpassed only by Ash Barty’s French Open win, and she grew up on grass. That should be the difference in this match. I’d love to see Ostapenko get on a roll, but she won’t beat Konta.
Petra Martic over Margarita Gasparyan
Gasparyan, a 24-year-old Russian, knocked off fourth-seeded Elina Svetolina, 6-3, 3-6, 6-4, in the first round, and appears to enjoy playing on the grass. But Petra Martic’s game is almost taylor-made for the fast stuff. She slices and dices, she serves well, she moves well, and she will actually approach the net when desired, which is an unusual site to see on the WTA Tour. I expect Martic, who beat Ekaterina Alexandrova in the first round, to move on.
(Following matches postponed from Tuesday)
Venus Williams over Aliaksandra Sasnovich
Venus Williams may be 39-years-old now, and no longer a realistic threat to win another Grand Slam title to add to her already impressive collection of seven championships (the same total as John McEnroe) and nine other finals, but she is still a very dangerous player on the grass courts here and at Wimbledon. To give you an idea of how dangerous a grass court player she is, her career record in Paris is 48-22, in Melbourne it’s 53-19, in New York City it’s 78-17, and in London it’s 89-16. Every one of these career records is extremely impressive, but her record at Wimbledon is almost incomparable. Sasnovich is 5-4 at Wimbledon, and playing a living legend on the grass will be hard for her. I think Venus moves on.
Ash Barty over Donna Vekic
Ash Barty leads the WTA Tour with 31 wins so far this year, and is a newly crowned Grand Slam champion, having just won the French Open with very little trouble along the way. Because of the way she plays, with her wonderful ability to mix in slices, moving forward to the net, and control the pace of play, I think Barty is easily one of the two or three favorites to win Wimbledon this year. I’d give her as good a chance to walk away with the title as Osaka, Bertens, Kvitova, Pliskova, Kerber, and possibly Halep. And she’ll start her run with this match against Donna Vekic. Vekic is a worthy opponent, ranked 22nd, and sporting a 23-11 record on the year. But Vikic is only 5-5 on the grass at Wimbledon, and I don’t think her game will respond to the challenge presented by the grass courts nearly as well as Barty’s will.