Tennis: Abrams picks Women’s Semi-final and Men’s Quarterfinal from Miami Open

Women’s Semi-finals

Ash Barty over Anett Kontaveit
These two surprising semi-finalists have only played once, in the qualies of Wimbledon in 2014, where Kontaveit took that match. This is light years away from that. Kontaveit is here because, frankly, she had a pretty good draw. Yes, she took out exciting young American Amanda Anisimova and Aussie Ajla Tomljanovic, but then she got lucky and played Bianca Andreescu when the Canadian was clearly pooped, and the Indian Wells champion had to retire while she was getting clobbered 6-1, 2-0. And instead of meeting up with either world’s #1 Naomi Osaka or Caroline Wozniacki, Kontaveit got lucky when Su-Wei Hsieh took them both out with her unorthodox game. Kontaveit had trouble, but eventually overcame Hsieh 7-5 in the third to set up this delicious match-up. Barty rolled over Dayana Yastremska, the aging Sam Stosur, 7th seeded Kiki Bertens and then in a real thriller, 3rd seeded Petra Kvitova. Barty has had the rougher road to get here, but as I’ve said before, you can only beat the players put in front of you. This will be a very entertaining match to watch, and could be competitive, but Barty has the better arsenal and seems to be ready to ascend to the finals of a tournament of this caliber. I’d go with Barty because of her weapons. She’s ready to wear a crown.

Karolina Pliskova over Simona Halep
When I picked Halep to triumph yesterday, I noted that she doesn’t seem to be playing her best and that in the right circumstances against the right opponent she’d lose. This is that circumstance and opponent. Frankly, Halep hasn’t had a lot of competition, dropping a tiebreak set only to Polona Hercog on her run to today’s semis. She hasn’t played great, and really hasn’t been tested. Still, she is one of the best competitors on the WTA Tour, and is a roadrunner to boot. But Pliskova has been match tested here, surviving three-setters over Alize Cornet and Yulia Putintseva, after taking out Petra Martic, who had held a 3-0 win/loss record over Pliskova. She then overwhelmed teenage sensation Marketa Vondrousova after being down 3-0 in the second set. Importantly, Halep holds a 7-3-lifetime record against the Czech, but this could prove to be an exception to my rule of usually going with the player who has shown dominance over the other. I’ve been predicting that Pliskova is ready to break through and win a major since last December, and this could be her first step on that path. In a fiery matchup, I’m going with Pliskova…reluctantly.

Men’s Quarterfinals

Denis Shapovalov over Frances Tiafoe
Frankly, I didn’t think either of these guys would be here, but after playing beautifully in tough spots, they both are fully deserving of this battle. Big Fo has just been marvelous. He took two tiebreakers from Miomir Kecmanovic, who had such a wonderful run last week in Indian Wells and followed that up with a convincing three-set win over David Ferrer, where he showed both patience and brilliance. In particular, I was uniquely impressed with his drop shot that he not only disguised well, but also executed almost perfectly in the most extreme circumstances. With his efficient 7-5, 7-6 win over David Goffin, Tiafoe has shown his ability to beat all types of styles with his powerful game. Big Fo has the game, but like most players, when he gets on a roll, he is just so difficult to succumb. Shapovalov, the 19-year-old Canadian, has been tested this whole tournament, and has risen to the occasion time and again. Predictably, it took him three sets to take out Brit Daniel Evans, and then he overcame Russian Andrey Rublev in two, before playing masterfully in an instant classic against the Greek God, Stefanos Tsitsipas. That match was filled with such artistry that they could take that third set and put it on display at the Metropolitan Museum of Art. Fittingly, it went down to a third set tiebreaker, and the young Canadian hit winners to finish off his opponent in an ending that came close to 2:00 a.m. Assuredly, the next time those two play more people will be in the stands.

Which brings us to this match. These guys have played twice, both last year, with each coming away with a win. There is very little to pick between them, and obviously, this match could go either way. But I’m picking the Canadian for one simple, if possibly benign reason: the American tends to cramp because he is such a heavy sweater. They’re playing in the Miami afternoon sun, and this could affect Big Fo more than Shapovalov. If it does, it will mean the difference between the two. But buckle your seat belts, because this one is going to be fun!

Roger Federer over Kevin Anderson
Last July, Kevin Anderson beat Roger Federer at Wimbledon, of all places, and ruined Fed’s chance of winning his ninth title at the All England Club. Still, The Fed holds a 5-1-lifetime advantage over the South African, and now he has ample reason to seek revenge. Anderson’s arsenal is a bit more well-rounded than most tall big-servers. He can volley, he can hit his groundstrokes, and he moves awfully well for a man his size, at 6’8”. But just last week he was forced to withdraw from Indian Wells because of a continuing shoulder problem. In fact, this is his first tournament since the 2019 Australian Open more than two months ago because of his tender shoulder, and shoulders are very sensitive joints. There’s a lot of movement in there, and a lot can go wrong. If there’s a twinge of pain, it will affect Anderson’s confidence in his arm, and his ability to bomb his delivery. Having had experience with that, I’m picking Federer. Are there more reasons? Sure. It’s Federer. Look to see who jumps out to a lead. Federer is 50-0 in Masters 1000 matches when winning the first set.