Tennis: Abrams analyzes 13 2nd round men’s matches at Indian Wells
Indian Wells
Men’s Second Round
Novak Djokovic over Bjorn Fratangelo
These guys have played here before, in 2016 when Djokovic beat the American in the second round in three sets. Fratangelo is a little known American who turned pro in 2012 when he was 18-years-old. He might have done better had he gotten a little college seasoning, but NCAA tennis is so bad that he went straight to the pros. Djokovic is now an icon of tennis, getting back his No. 1 ranking and winning the last three Grand Slam tournaments. He’s not going to lose in his first match here to Fratangelo. But ya gotta love his name.
Nick Kyrgios over Philipp Kohlschreiber
Which Nick Kyrgios will show up? Will it be the guy who should spend this weekend in a mental facility, or will it be the ultra-talented guy who beat Seppi, Nadal, Wawrinka, Isner, and Zverev in succession to win last week’s Masters 500 title in Acapulco? I’m guessing that it will be the latter, simply because he played doubles yesterday and dominated the court to lead his partner, American Taylor Fritz (who was friggin brain-dead in his quick straight set loss to compatriot Stevie Johnson), over Johnson and Dominic Thiem. If you count this doubles win over Thiem, over the past week Kyrgios holds wins over the Nos. 2, 3, 8, and 9 players in the world. Enough said. He’ll pick apart the sturdy, reliable, and solid German, Kohlschreiber, and hope to add No. 1’s scalp to his collection, as Djokovic will be next up for the unpredictable Aussie.
Gael Monfils over Leo Mayer
So far, Monfils may be the comeback player of the year. He has regained his thrilling shot-making to combine with his tremendous athletic ability and brute competitiveness, and is now a threat to beat anyone every week. I attribute it to love, and to being with his new beau, fellow-pro Elina Svitolina, the 6th seed in the women’s draw, as they have had a number of tournaments together since the beginning of the year. The dashing Frenchman holds a career 3-1 advantage in matches played against the 6’3” Argentine, with Monfils winning the first three and Mayer taking the latest match last year in Hamburg. The ATP Tour is starting to look like the NBA with all the tall players now dominating the draw. In this one, Monfils, at 6’4” and Mayer are just point guards in that they aren’t even really big compared to other players. The difference between the two is that Monfils can dunk, and Mayer is an outside threat.
Dominic Thiem over Jordan Thompson
Is Thiem, ranked No. 8 in the world, a threat on any surface but clay? We’ll find out here, after, as the 7th seed in Melbourne in the second round he crashed and burned, going down to Alexi Popyrin, a second-tier Aussie. The gritty hard courts should be to his liking here, but Thompson will present some problems for the Austrian as he’s coming off a confidence-building first round win over Frederico Delbonis, 7-6 in the third. They’ve played twice before with Thiem winning both, and he is the better player, but Thiem has a losing record for the year, so you never know. I’m guessing that Thiem stays around a little longer.
Sascha Zverev over Martin Klizan
This will be another NBA matchup as Zverev, seeded 3rd, stands 6’6” and Klizan is 6’3”. Klizan is coming off a straight-set first round win over Sascha’s older brother Mischa, but Sascha is the better of the two Zverev’s and he’s bringing in a dominating 9-2 record for 2019. Zverev is the total package. He’s a fantastic athlete who moves gracefully, and he’s got all the shots to compete and beat the big boys. He’s eager, as most 21-year-olds are. And, of course, he’s ranked No. 3 in the world, currently residing between Nadal and Federer in the rankings. Klizan brings a big serve and a tough exterior into this match, but it won’t be enough. Oh, need I mention that at this tender age, Zverev has already pocketed a cool $16 Million?
Jan-Leonard Struff over Ricardas Berankis
Berankis, the 28-year-old from Lithuania, is in this draw as a lucky loser, having lost to Filip Krajinovic in straight sets in the qualies. Struff, the tough German, is coming off a first round drubbing of the very tough John Millman, having run away with that match 6-1, 6-3. Another NBA castoff, Struff stands at 6’5” and is serving quite well. He should have no problem at all with the Lithuanian, and should move on to an expected third-round clash with Sascha Zverev.
Alex de Minaur over Marcos Giron
Marcos Giron, the local from Thousand Oaks, Calif., who won the NCAA singles title for UCLA in 2014, had an impressive first round win on Thursday over the tough Frenchman Jeremy Chardy 7-6, 7-6. De Minaur is coming into this tournament as the 23rd seed, having not played since his two Davis Cup wins for Australia a few weeks ago. Prior to that he had a run to the third round in Melbourne, losing to Nadal, and he took the title in Sydney, beating Lajovic, Opelka, Thompson, and Simon in succession. This 20-year-old is a rising star, and today’s match against Giron should be a great way to tell where these two players stand, competitively. I’m guessing that de Minaur is farther along in his development than the 25-year-old local. However, after taking two tiebreakers from Chardy, Giron has shown that he can hang.
Milos Raonic over Sam Querrey
In yet another NBA matchup, Canada’s 6’5” Raonic matches up well against American Sam Querrey, who stands at 6’6”. They both serve absolute missiles, although Raonic’s serves are just a tad better. They both hit decent forehands. Querrey’s two-handed backhand is a far better and more reliable shot than Raonic’s, but like a lot of other players today, Raonic likes to run around that shot and rely on his forehand, especially when he can hit it inside-out. The thing is, this will be a match decided by serves, and serves alone. If Raonic is on, he’ll win. If not, Querrey will make him pay.
Stefanos Tsitsipas over Felix Auger-Aliassime
This is a really appealing second-round match, as Tsitsipas is one of the most exciting players on the Tour now, and Auger-Aliassime is on the cusp of breaking through into stardom. This will be the first meeting between these two, and they should be playing against each other well into the next decade. Tsitsipas, at 20, has already cracked the Top 10, and brings an impressive 15-5 record and one title this year into this tournament. FA2, as the 18-year-old Canadian is now known, is polished beyond belief for someone his age. He has it all: serve, groundies, court knowledge, touch, speed and competitive fire, and will bring out his whole arsenal against the Greek, who floats like a butterfly and stings like a bee, to borrow Muhammed Ali’s self-description. Grab an adult beverage (that neither of these players are old enough to drink) and watch this one. It’ll be fun.
Roberto Bautista-Agut over Yoshihito Nishioka
RBA is the real deal. He’s sporting an 11-2 record with one title in 2019, and can do everything on the court. Those who thought that the Spaniard was just a slow court player have been proven wrong time and again, as he made a great run this year in Melbourne, beating Andy Murray, John Millman, Karen Khachanov, and Marin Cilic in succession, before losing a close 4-setter to Tsitsipas. Doesn’t sound impressive? Don’t forget that Murray has two Wimbledon titles, a U.S. Open title, two Olympic Gold Medals, and was a five-time Australian Open finalist; that Cilic holds a Wimbledon trophy; that Khachanov was ranked in the Top Ten when he lost to RBA, and that Millman took out Nadal at last year’s U.S. Open. Sufficiently impressed now? RBA should have little trouble with the diminutive (5’7”) Nishioka, who he crushed in their only previous meeting, a 6-2, 6-3, 6-3 washout at the 2017 Australian Open.
Kei Nishikori over Adrian Mannarino
Kei Nishikori is an absolute pleasure to watch. Although he’s very proficient in all his strokes, he doesn’t posses either one killer shot or a big serve. He’s fought his way into the Top Ten and to the U.S. Open Finals by sheer force of will, showing that perseverance is a great attribute. He’s a grinder, he’s a fighter, and he won’t stop until it’s over. And he usually wins…he’s 11-2 this year alone. Kei seems to defeat his opponents not by bludgeoning them to death, as many of his larger rivals do, but by inflicting them with a series of pinpricks, from which they eventually die from infection. Mannarino is a bit of the same, not possessing any giant weapons, but depending on grinding it out. It’s just that the sixth-seeded Nishikori does it better.
Denis Shapovalov over Stevie Johnson
In previewing yesterday’s match between Johnson and Taylor Fritz, I wrote that unless Fritz comes into the match brain-dead, he would win. Well Fritz was brain-dead. He either forgot that Johnson can’t hit a backhand, or he had no strategy on how to play. Either way, Johnson stood in the ad-court corner and did what he does: He blasted forehands when available, and hit his pathetic slice backhands when Fritz found that side. Shapovalov won’t let Johnson get away with that. The talented 19-year-old who plays out of Canada can hit every shot, has a much better tennis I.Q. than Fritz, and will have a simple plan to diffuse Johnson’s limited game. They both have big serves, but Shapovalov has a far better all-court game. He volleys well, he moves well, and he’s flashy to the point of super-stardom. He’s not there yet, but he should make mincemeat out of the American.
Marin Cilic over Dusan Lajovic
Cilic, the 6’6” former U.S. Open Champion, is back to playing effective tennis, and although his ranking has fallen to No. 11, he is still an extremely dangerous player. He has a big serve, very effective ground-strokes, a solid volley, and he moves really well, especially for a big fella. Lajovic doesn’t have the weapons (or the confidence) to pull off this upset. Lajovic is bringing in a 3-7 record this year, and has lost to Cilic in straight sets both of the times they’ve played previously. I expect Cilic to make it 3-0 against Lajovic and move on to an expected matchup with Shapovalov in the third round here.
Roger Federer over Peter Gojowczyk
Gojowczyk had a nice first round win over Andreas Seppi, 7-5, 6-4, but the 85th ranked German just doesn’t have the weapons to upset the Mighty Fed. Federer has suffered only one loss this year, a surprising four-set loss to Tsitsipas in the Round of 16 at the Australian Open, which served notice on the world that the Greek really was, and is, a God. But Federer is still a fantastic player, even though he is 37-years-old, and is obviously a threat to win any tournament, and every match that he plays. He’s planning for the second week here, and won’t let Gojowczyk stand in his way.
Rafa Nadal over Jared Donaldson
This will be a good test to see how far Donaldson, the 22-year-old American, has come since Nadal humbled him 6-2, 6-1 when they played in the 2017 ATP Masters in Shanghai. My guess is that Donaldson might be good for one more game per set against Rafa, but not much more. Donaldson has lost some of his momentum as one of the up-and-coming American youngsters, having lost that description to Tiafoe, Opelka, McDonald, and perhaps Giron. He’s not making many main draws, and it’s tough to climb up the rankings without that luxury. Yet, given a wild-card entry here, he took out Japan’s Tatsuma Ito in straight sets in the first round, and will take home both needed ranking points and at least $26,430. If he wins, he’ll guarantee himself at least $48,775, which should help him pay for some coaching, but first he’ll have to get by Nadal. That’s not gonna happen.