Tennis: Neal Abrams picks 1st round matches from Acapulco & Dubai
ATP Abierto Mexicano Telcel
Acapulco, Mexico
First Round Singles
Rafa Nadal over Mischa Zverev
Rafa hasn’t played since he got destroyed in the Australian Open finals by The Joker. He should be rested and eager. Mischa Zverev is the older brother of 3rd ranked Sascha Zverev, but not nearly as talented or accomplished. Rafa should have no problem with the older brother, as the two times they’ve played before Nadal has won both of those matches in straight sets. This might be a good time to mention that Rafa is now engaged, so he’s probably thinking about putting some money away for his new family, because he’s only pocketed $105 MILLION (in prize money alone) so far in his career.
Andreas Seppi over Nick Kyrgios
This is an interesting pick. Kyrgios, the troubled Aussie, is clearly the better player, but who knows if he’ll come out and actually compete? After the debacle that I witnessed last week in Delray where he was so crazy that they shouldn’t have let him out of the State without spending a couple of nights in a psych ward, he’ll either be as crazy as ever, or he’ll try to be earnest and competitive. I’m betting on the former. You don’t get better from crazy over a long weekend.
Stan Wawrinka over Ryan Harrison
This draw is so packed that Ryan Harrison, the American, ranked 93rd, had to play in the qualies just to get in the main draw. His ranking has been high enough for the past few years (he peaked at No. 40 in 2017) that he hasn’t even had to qualify to play in the four Grand Slam tournaments! But now that he’s hovering around 100, he’s gotta get his meal ticket punched to simply get into these smaller tournaments, and playing Stan the Man in the first round here isn’t going to help him. Wawrinka, after a disappointing start to the season, has come around the past couple of weeks, and is back to playing top rate tennis. As long as he doesn’t have to play Milos Raonic (he’s lost to the tough Canadian two out of the three times they’ve already played this year) Wawrinka should have an abundance of confidence. He’s not at his best yet, but he’s at least on his way.
John Isner over Adrian Mannarino
What happened to John Isner this past weekend? He was cruising along in the semis of Delray, exerting his will against Dan Evans, the Brit who just came back from a year’s hiatus for getting tested positive for cocaine, 6-3, 2-2, and simply fell apart. Evans won ten out of the next thirteen games, and the shocked Isner walked off the court a loser, giving up a fantastic opportunity to win his first tournament of 2019. He should be embarrassed, and unlike Kyrgios, I think he’ll take it out on Adrian Mannarino. They just played last Thursday in Florida, with the 6’10” American taking a pedestrian 7-6, 6-4 triumph into the semis. Mannarino has a nice game, but if Isner serves like he did last week, the Italian won’t win, unless he gets lucky and takes two tiebreakers. I wouldn’t count on that.
Taylor Fritz over Sam Querrey
What a difference a year makes. The 21-year-old American, Taylor Fritz is now the favorite in a match with fellow American Sam Querrey, who is 31. They are 2-2, lifetime, but Fritz is now the higher ranked player (No. 46 to No. 57), and seems to have more momentum and confidence. Querrey, like a lot of really tall players (he’s 6’6”) is a pretty one dimensional player, with a giant serve and forehand, and not much else. Fritz is pretty tall too, at 6’4”, but he has developed a more all court game than Querrey, and comes from really good stock, as his mother, Kathy May, was a pro player back in the early ‘80’s. The difference that I see here is that when Fritz comes to net he is more mobile, can get lower on low volleys and half-volleys, and seems to have developed a better level of competitiveness than his older compatriot. This match might have as many as three tiebreakers in it, but I think Fritz will come out on top.
John Millman over Marcel Granollers
Did you see that Manny Machado signed a ten-year contract last week for $30 Million per year? Makes you think that baseball players are overpaid, doesn’t it? Well, let’s take a look at Marcel Granollers, a 32-year-old Spaniard. He’s currently ranked No. 115 in the world, has a lifetime record of 195-242 (a 44% winning percentage), has won only one main draw match in 2019, and you’ve probably never heard of him. Guess what? He’s pocketed over $10 Million in prize money. Maybe it’s not just baseball players who are overpaid. Well, he’ll pocket first round prize money here, because he’ll go out to Australian John Millman. Acapulco is played on outdoor hard courts, and these favor the 44th ranked Aussie. Millman will get to the net as often as possible, and this will make the difference in this match.
Frances Tiafoe over Jordan Thompson
Tiafoe was a real disappointment last week in Delray, where, as the defending champion he went down in the first round to Great Britain’s Dan Evans. My guess is that Tiafoe is a little embarrassed, having lost so quickly on American soil after his monumental run to the Australian Open’s quarterfinals. He’ll make it up here in Mexico. Jordan Thompson is an up and coming 24-year-old from Sydney, Australia, and he’s getting better each season. But Tiafoe is the better player at this point, and the 21-year-old American has amends to make up for. He will.
Mackie McDonald over Emilio Nava
Mackie had the chance of a lifetime to win his first ATP tournament after taking out 4th ranked Juan Martin del Potro 7-6 in the third, in Delray’s quarterfinals this past weekend. He led Moldavian Rado Albot 6-3 in the semis before losing twelve straight games, going down in spectacular fashion 3-6, 6-0, 6-0. How does that happen? It would be easy to just say that Albot played great after the first set, but there’s much more involved when a male touring pro can’t hold his serve at least once in two consecutive sets. It’s mental. But the kid is resilient, and he really shouldn’t have any problem with Mexican wild-card, 17-year-old Emilio Nava. McDonald should be able to put that debacle behind him and boost his confidence with a good draw here. If the ex-UCLA bruin goes down here in the first round, he might need to get the number of a good head shrinker from Nick Kyrgios.
Diego Schwartzman over Marius Copil
Last week in Rio, where seven out of the eight seeds lost in the first round, Schwartzman was one of those casualties. However, the diminutive Argentinian pulled up lame--down 4-1 in the second set, after having lost the first set 6-1. If Schwartzman hasn’t recovered by now, he’ll have a lot of trouble with Copil, the 28-year-old Romanian. Schwartzman’s game depends on his wheels and his desire, so if Schwartzman isn’t up to par, Copil will take advantage of Diego’s lack of movement and will score the upset. We’ll be able to tell after they each serve twice.
Alex de Minaur over Nicolas Jarry
De Minaur is one of the new, young crop of (almost) Top 25 players, currently ranked No. 26. He is young (20), eager, solid, with an all-court game, and possesses excellent tactics. Jarry is a 23-year-old 6’6” power hitter from Santiago, Chile, who is playing some good tennis right now, and who is a threat to almost anyone, but is more comfortable on slow clay courts. De Minaur hasn’t played in ten days or so, since he won two matches in Australia’s successful Davis Cup tie with Bosnia and Herzegovina. Jarry, on the other hand, was one of those seven seeds to lose last week in the first round in Rio. Looks like he’ll go down in his first match here, too, because de Minaur is the better player right now.
Sascha Zverev over Alexei Popyrin
Popyrin, an Australian wild-card here, is improving, and may someday be a Top 50 player. But Zverev is currently ranked No. 3 in the world, and is the real deal. His older brother might go down to Rafa here in his first match, but the 23-year-old Sascha will just take Popyrin apart. Zverev, who plays as a German, is really fun to watch. He’s got all the shots, moves like a gazelle, and is sporadically spectacular. More importantly, he’s very solid, and that’s what wins his matches.
Dubai Duty Free Championships
Dubai, U.A.E.
First Round picks
Kei Nishikori over Benoit Pare
Kei Nishikori is the top seed here in Dubai, in a tournament that also features Roger Federer, Marin Cilic, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Karen Khachanov, and Milos Ranic. ATP tournament directors have no say in setting up the seeds in their tournaments and must follow the ATP rankings to the letter. There are many problems with this system, which requires tournament results (and ranking points) from up to 52 weeks ago to stay on a player’s record. Rankings are based on total number of ranking points earned over the past rolling 52 weeks, so the more that a player plays and the more wins he may collect, the more ranking points he earns. Rankings are based on total ranking points earned. So if a player plays a limited schedule (Federer or Serena Williams) they collect fewer points, and therefore have a ceiling on their ranking. Nishikori is the top seed because he has accumulated more ranking points than Federer, and is therefore ranked higher, because Federer played in many fewer events over the past 52 weeks. So Kei is the favorite here in Dubai, and he should take out France’s Benoit Paire, ranked 65th in the world. These two have already played seven times, and Nishikori holds a 5-2 record over Paire, winning the last three matches played. He should make that four in a row now.
Stefanos Tsitsipas over Matthew Ebden
Tsitsipas won last week in Marseille, France, running through Hubert Hurkacz, Sergiy Stakhovsky, David Goffin, and Mikhail Kukuskin without dropping a set. That’s all you need to know. The Greek God is on, and he won’t lose to Australia’s Matthew Ebden. Although Ebden seems to be playing reasonably well, and is ranked 47th, as long as Tsitsipas continues to play the way he has this year, and particularly last week, the new star who currently lives in Cyprus should improve on this year’s 11-4 record and put this one away early. I look for the 20-year-old’s ranking to improve from the current No. 11.
Marin Cilic over Gael Monfils
What a great first round match! Monfils, one of the best athletes on the Tour, is starting to play really well, having won the tournament two weeks ago in Rotterdam, when he took out David Goffin, Andreas Seppi, Damir Dzumhur, Daniil Medvedev, and Stan Wawrinka in succession. Monfils is 9-2 in 2019, and more importantly holds a lifetime 3-0 advantage over the 10th ranked Cilic. Meanwhile, Marin Cilic has won three out of his four matches this year, is serving well, and has recovered from last year’s knee injury to the point that he’s now a threat to win any tournament he enters. You can look at Monfils’ 3-0 record over Cilic one of two ways. Either Monfils has Marin’s number, or the former U.S. Open champion is due. I think it’s the latter. In a real tough bruiser, I think Cilic takes his first match over Monfils.
Marcos Baghdatis over Mohamed Safwat
Baghdatis’ best years are behind him, but he does have a couple decent wins this year. With a ranking of only No. 128, Baghdatis, now 33-years-old, has been relegated to having to qualify for most tournaments, even the big ones, but still has a little magic left in his right arm. The Cyprus native has an awful lot of experience, having over 600 Tour matches under his belt after sixteen years on the Tour. This will mean almost everything in this match against the 218th ranked Safwat, from Cairo, Egypt. At age 28, Safwat has little experience, having played only 23 Tour matches, and less success, having won only seven of those matches. He was given a wild-card into the tournament (as was Baghdatis), so he has no momentum from winning any qualifying matches. Therefore, without momentum and the confidence that comes from winning, I’d have to say that Baghdatis is the heavy favorite here and should come away with the win.
Daniil Medvedev over Ricardas Berankis
Medvedev, at age 23, is another one of those next Gen Top 25 players ready to take over the spots left when the Big Three retire, currently ranked No. 15. He’s playing great tennis, having a tournament title under his belt and a 14-3 record in 2019. Two weeks ago in Sofia, Medvedev plowed through Robin Haase, Martin Klizan, Gael Monfils, and Marton Fucsovics to take the title and position himself for a jump in the rankings. Berankis is a 28-year-old Lithuanian currently ranked No. 113 who qualified for the main draw here by winning two matches in the qualies, the second over Mirza Basic from Bosnia-Herzegovina. These guys have played twice before, with the Russian taking both matches, each in three sets. But Medvedev has improved since then and I think this match probably won’t go three.
Roberto Bautista Agut over Ramkumar Ramanathan
This will be the first match between these two players, and Bautista Agut, currently ranked 18th is heavily favored. He currently holds a 10-1 record this year, and got to the quarters of the Australian Open having impressive wins over Andy Murray, John Millman, Karen Khachanov, and Marin Cilic, before falling to Tsitsipas 7-5, 4-6, 6-4, 7-6 right after Tsitsipas beat Roger Federer. This guy is really good, and tough as nails, and he should have no problem with Ramanathan, the #137th ranked player from India. Although the Indian is only 24, he’ll need more experience, more wins, and a better game to challenge the Spaniard.
Milos Raonic over Jan-Lennard Struff
Raonic is ranked No. 14 currently, and is the 7th seed here in Dubai. This draw, like the concurrent tournament in Acapulco, is stocked with top players, and getting through the draw will be challenging for all players. But Raonic, with his dominant serve, is capable of doing it. He’s 7-3 this year, has shown flashes of sheer brilliance, and should take out the tough German, Struff, as he did the only time they played previously. They played at Wimbledon in 2017 where the tall Canadian won in straight sets. But grass court tennis is totally different than any other kind of tennis, so if Struff plays well and puts up resistance, he’s capable of pushing this one into a third set.
Roger Federer over Philipp Kohlschreiber
How often does 35-year-old Philipp Kohlschreiber draw an opponent who is older than he is? Not often. But Roger Federer, now ranked only 7th, is 37 years old, and every time he walks on the court he’s trying to break one record or another. This time it’s to win his 100th career title, a monumental accomplishment, second only to Jimmy Connors in the history of professional tennis. Let’s review his resume: he’s 1183-261 in his career. He’s won 20 Grand Slam tournaments, the most in men’s history. He’s collected over $120 Million in prize money. He’s often referred to as GOAT (Greatest Of All Time). He has a net worth of $420 Million. Now for this match: Kohlschreiber is a solid, dependable, steady Tour professional who rarely loses to guys ranked lower than he is, but rarely beats the Big 3. He’s 0-13, lifetime, against Federer, and won’t win this match. I like watching the German play because he’s a fighter and he has an all court game, but Federer is, well, Federer.