Patriots vs Bears TNF Preview: Odds, Prediction, Best Bet
Patriots at Bears on Thursday Night Football: Chicago is a field-goal favorite, the total sits at 50.5, and Maye and Williams meet again. Odds, analysis and our best bet.
Thursday Night Football puts two 4-2 teams on the same field at Soldier Field, and the headline act is a reunion of the 2024 draft’s top quarterbacks. Chicago’s Caleb Williams, the No. 1 pick, hosts New England’s Drake Maye, the No. 3 pick, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m. ET (7:15 p.m. CT) on Prime Video. The Patriots arrive on a three-game winning streak, while the Bears can open 5-2 for the first time since 2020 if they hold serve at home on a short week.
Bears Laying a Field Goal as the Total Climbs Past 50
The market has moved toward Chicago all week. The Bears opened as short favorites at -1.5, with a total of 47.5, and the number has since settled at Bears -3 at most shops, with some books hanging -3.5. FanDuel has Chicago -3 at -105 and New England +3 at -115, while DraftKings lists the moneyline at Bears -148 and Patriots +124 (FanDuel is a touch wider at Bears -154, Patriots +130). The total has jumped to 50.5, up three full points from the opener. ESPN’s FPI makes Chicago a 2.4-point favorite with a 60 percent win probability, which lines up almost exactly with the market, so there is little obvious value in laying the points at the current price.
The short week is the real swing factor. New England is dealing with a beaten-up offensive line, and coach Mike Vrabel was blunt when asked about guards Ben Brown and Alijah Vera-Tucker, saying “Probably not” on their availability. Right tackle Morgan Moses has been limited with an ankle injury but Vrabel has not ruled him out. Cornerback Carlton Davis III (neck) did not participate in Monday’s estimated practice report, and receiver Romeo Doubs landed on injured reserve this week with a shoulder injury. With so little recovery time, that is the kind of attrition that tends to push a spread toward the home side, and it is why some books are flirting with 3.5. The flip side is that injuries on the Patriots’ line have yet to show up in the box score: the makeshift group did not surrender a sack in the win over the Jets.
The total is where the intrigue lives. Chicago’s defense has been among the league’s weaker units on a per-play basis, and Maye is playing some of the best football of his career. Yet the Bears also run the ball effectively, which can eat clock and keep a game from getting out of hand. A number north of 50 asks both offenses to be efficient, and that is a fair ask given what each quarterback has shown lately. Anyone looking to back Chicago can shop that -105 price, and a FanDuel promo code is worth a look before placing a bet, since the half-point difference between books matters when a game lands on a field goal.
Maye’s Hot Streak Against a Bears Team That Takes the Ball Away
Maye has turned his season around in a hurry. Over his last three starts he leads the NFL with 10 touchdown passes and owns a 119.3 passer rating, the best among qualified quarterbacks, along with 0.38 EPA per dropback. Even more important, he has thrown just one interception in that span after tossing a league-high six in the first three weeks. The results show up on the scoreboard: a 29-26 upset at Buffalo on Oct. 4, a 45-17 rout of Las Vegas on Oct. 11, and a 26-19 win over the Jets on Oct. 18. Earlier losses came by 35-6 at Jacksonville and 13-10 at Seattle in the opener, with a 20-3 win over Pittsburgh in between.
Chicago is a harder puzzle than its record suggests. The Bears have forced a league-best 42 takeaways since the start of last season, which is exactly the type of trait that can punish a quarterback who is only recently clean with the football. They also bounced back from a 31-7 loss at Green Bay on Oct. 11 with a 31-23 win at Atlanta on Oct. 18, powered by Williams in his return from injury. He is now off the injury report. Before that, Chicago beat the Jets 23-12 on Oct. 4 and Philadelphia 27-7, with a 9-3 loss to Minnesota the other blemish. Chicago is 2-1 at home this season.
The Bears have their own short-week concerns. Right guard Jonah Jackson (hip and quad) and linebacker T.J. Edwards (hamstring) did not practice, running back Kyle Monangai and linebacker Jack Sanborn are in the concussion protocol, and the team has a decision to make at left tackle. None of those names are irreplaceable individually, but together they thin out a unit that has to hold up against a quarterback playing at a high level.
A One-Sided History That Favors New England
The Patriots lead the all-time series 11-5 across 16 meetings, a stretch that includes Super Bowl XX. The most recent matchup went decisively New England’s way, a 19-3 Patriots win in Week 10 of 2024 in which Maye and Williams met for the first time as rookies. That was a sloppy, low-scoring game and a nine-sack day for Williams, so it says more about where both quarterbacks were then than where they are now. The last Bears win in the series came in Week 7 of 2022, a 33-14 Monday Night Football result at Gillette Stadium, and New England won the last game played in Chicago, 38-31 in 2018. The Patriots are also 15-8 all-time on Thursdays, and this is the first of two Thursday night games for them this year, with another set for Dec. 10 against Minnesota.
Prediction and Best Bet
Both teams are better than they were a month ago, and both have credible reasons to expect a win. Chicago has the home field, the better health at quarterback, and a defense built to take the ball away, while New England has the hotter quarterback and a recent run of results that includes a win at Buffalo. The short week and the Patriots’ offensive line problems tilt the scale slightly toward Chicago, but not enough to justify paying a premium on the spread. The cleaner angle is the total: two quarterbacks in rhythm, a Chicago defense that has given up yards, and a Patriots secondary missing Davis make a game in the 50s very plausible.
| Thu, Oct 22 • 8:15 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| New England Patriots |  +3 (-118) |  +136 |  O 50.5 (-109) |
| Chicago Bears | -3 (-109) | -155 | U 50.5 (-112) |
- Prediction: Bears 27, Patriots 24
- Best Bet: Over 50.5 total points
The Over is the best bet because it does not depend on which injury-depleted unit holds up better in the trenches. Even if Chicago’s pass rush gets home, Maye has been excellent at avoiding the turnover trouble that plagued him early, and Williams returns healthy against a defense that has to travel on a short week. Lean on the ball finding the end zone more than a stop-and-start grind, and shop for 50.5 before it moves.