Ben Rice, Junior Caminero, Jake Bauers: 3 MLB Home Run Props to Back for ALDS and NLDS Game 1s
Ben Rice, Junior Caminero, and Jake Bauers all carry real home run equity into their Division Series openers — here is the analytics breakdown on all three HR props.
October baseball separates the real sluggers from the pretenders, and three names stand out on today’s home run prop board. Ben Rice and Junior Caminero will literally share a batter’s box lineage card in ALDS Game 1 between the Yankees and Rays, both arriving with identical 41-homer seasons and matching surges at the plate. Across the bracket, Jake Bauers gets a Game 1 draw in Milwaukee’s NLDS opener against San Diego that lines up about as well as a power prop can.
These aren’t speculative dart throws. Each of these hitters is walking into October with a specific, repeatable edge — whether it’s recent form, a shaky opposing arm, or a counting-stat profile that simply produces home runs at a rate the market hasn’t fully priced in. Here’s the breakdown on all three.
Ben Rice Over 0.5 Home Runs (+290)
Rice enters ALDS Game 1 at Tropicana Field tied for the American League home run lead with 41 long balls in 154 games — a homer in roughly 25.6% of his appearances this season. That isn’t a hot streak skewing a small sample; it’s a full-season power profile from a hitter who’s been arguably the Yankees’ most dangerous bat down the stretch, carrying a .363 on-base percentage and a .534 slugging mark that ranks third among all qualified hitters in baseball.
The form is trending in exactly the right direction heading into the postseason. Rice is riding a four-game hitting streak and has hit .400 over his last five games with two home runs, two doubles, three walks and six RBIs. In the Wild Card round against Boston, he went 4-for-5 with two homers and six RBIs in a single game. At +290, the price still reflects a league-average home run hitter rather than one of the sport’s hottest power bats walking into the biggest series of the year.
The matchup context helps, too. Tampa Bay enters as a narrow favorite in a game projected as close to a coin flip, which means plenty of competitive at-bats and no reason for New York to pull Rice from the lineup early. With a full look at Rays pitching in a win-or-keep-playing environment, the volume argument is as strong as the form argument.
Junior Caminero Over 0.5 Home Runs (+370)
If Rice is the Yankees’ proven power threat, Caminero is Tampa Bay’s mirror image. He’s also sitting on 41 home runs in 162 games this season — a 23.5% homer rate — while batting .276 with 68 extra-base hits, a .360 on-base percentage and a .524 slugging percentage that ranks sixth among all qualified major league hitters. Few bats in this series carry more raw thump per plate appearance.
Caminero gets the benefit of a friendlier park and the comfort of playing in front of a home crowd that’s watched him terrorize American League pitching all year, including stretches directly against this same Yankees staff during the regular season. He’s shown he can go deep against New York arms before, and a short porch in a hostile road environment for the Yankees’ bullpen only raises the odds of extra damage.
At +370, the market is pricing Caminero’s homer upside lower than his teammate-turned-rival Rice despite a near-identical power season. Given his sixth-ranked slugging percentage league-wide and a Game 1 atmosphere that tends to produce aggressive, pull-happy swings from both dugouts, this line looks soft relative to his actual season-long production.
Jake Bauers Over 0.5 Home Runs (+420)
Bauers heads into Milwaukee’s NLDS Game 1 having quietly authored a breakout age-30 season: 24 home runs, 78 RBIs, a .268 batting average and an .885 OPS — numbers that put him firmly in the middle of the Brewers’ most productive bats in a lineup that carried Milwaukee to the postseason. He’s not just riding a hot stretch; this is a full-season power ceiling the sportsbooks have to respect.
The matchup tilts things further in his favor. San Diego’s Game 1 starter has allowed eight home runs over his last seven outings and has given up at least one long ball in seven consecutive starts — a trend that hasn’t gone unnoticed. Bauers has already gone deep off this exact pitcher in a small sample of career at-bats, giving this prop a specific, demonstrated track record rather than just a favorable season-long split.
He’s also shown his power hasn’t faded as the calendar turned to October baseball, with five homers over his last 30 games. At +420, the price reflects long odds for a hitter who profiles as a legitimate power threat facing a pitcher who’s currently the easiest arm in the NLDS field to take deep.
Lock These In
All three bets attack the same inefficiency: a hitter with a real, demonstrated home run rate facing a pitching staff or specific starter that’s vulnerable to hard contact, at odds that haven’t fully caught up to the current form. Bettors shopping these numbers around different books — or stacking them into a parlay for plus-money value — should find a similar range across the market.
- Ben Rice Over 0.5 Home Runs (+290)
- Junior Caminero Over 0.5 Home Runs (+370)
- Jake Bauers Over 0.5 Home Runs (+420)
Check your preferred DraftKings promo code before kickoff, since October slates like this one tend to come with enhanced odds boosts on marquee home run props.