Austin Riley, Kyle Schwarber, Francisco Lindor: 3 MLB Batter Props to Back on September 22

The stretch run brings a loaded Monday slate, and three of baseball’s most consistent bats are lined up in spots that scream value. Austin Riley draws a soft matchup at home, Kyle Schwarber is riding the hottest power surge in the sport, and Francisco Lindor has quietly turned into one of the most reliable table-setters in the league. These aren’t gut-feel picks — the underlying numbers back all three.

Here’s the breakdown on three batter props worth betting on Monday night, September 22.

Austin Riley’s Hit Prop Is Underpriced

Austin Riley (ATL 3B, #27) projects out to a 67.3% model probability of recording a hit tonight against Cincinnati, and the profile supports it. Riley has been a fixture in the middle of Atlanta’s order all season, and his track record against right-handed pitching in particular gives him a wide margin for error on an over/under-one-hit line. He’s a career .263 hitter overall, and even in a season with some ups and downs, he’s still collecting extra-base pop — evidenced by 120 hits already logged through his 545 at-bats this year.

The matchup context matters here, too. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has been inconsistent against right-handed power bats for stretches this season, and Riley has shown he can find contact against a variety of arm angles. When a model probability clears the mid-60s on a single-hit prop for an everyday middle-of-the-order bat in a home game, that’s the kind of number sharp bettors lean into rather than fade.

Kyle Schwarber’s Power Surge Makes the HR Prop Worth the Plus Money

Kyle Schwarber (PHI DH, #12) is priced at +262 to go deep against Milwaukee, and given his season-long track record, that number looks generous. Schwarber has already launched 40 home runs across 134 games this season — a 24.6% homer rate per game played — and he was the first hitter in all of baseball to reach the 40-homer plateau this year. This marks the fourth time in his five seasons with the Phillies that he’s cleared 40 bombs, tying a franchise record.

Schwarber doesn’t need a soft matchup to hit one out — he’s a low-average, all-or-nothing slugger who racks up strikeouts but also racks up souvenirs at a rate few players in the league can match. Facing Milwaukee, a team he’s had success against throughout his career, the plus-money price on a single-game homer is the kind of number that pays off over a long enough sample, and Schwarber has been on that kind of heater since midsummer.

Francisco Lindor’s RBI Prop Fits His Recent Role

Francisco Lindor (NYM SS, #12) is priced at +195 for over 0.5 RBI against Texas, and the switch-hitting shortstop has been a steady run producer even in a season where his batting average has fluctuated. Lindor’s pop-up power — 20 home runs and a knack for driving in runners — keeps him in the mix for an RBI on any given night, especially hitting near the top of a Mets lineup that has generated traffic on the bases all year.

The Rangers series presents a fresh look for Lindor, and with New York needing production from its veteran core down the stretch, expect him hitting in a spot where RBI chances will be plentiful. A player with his track record of clutch production getting plus-money on driving in even a single run is a number worth snagging before it tightens.

Lock These In

All three of these props lean on real season-long trends rather than single-game hunches — Riley’s contact ability, Schwarber’s historic power pace, and Lindor’s RBI opportunities in a productive lineup. Prices like Schwarber’s home run number can move fast once the lineups drop, so it’s worth comparing a DraftKings promo code against other books to see where the value sits before locking anything in.

• Austin Riley OVER 0.5 Hits (model probability 67.3%)
• Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run (+262)
• Francisco Lindor OVER 0.5 RBI (+195)

Three different profiles, three different reasons to trust the numbers — this is the kind of slate where doing the homework on player-specific trends pays off.