Circa Sports’ Derek Stevens Makes the Case for State-Regulated Sports Betting Amid Prediction Market Boom
Circa Sports CEO Derek Stevens explains why the operator is still betting on state-regulated sportsbooks, even as prediction markets reshape the sports wagering landscape nationwide.
Derek Stevens has never been shy about defending the business he built. As Circa Sports CEO and owner of the Circa Resort and Casino in downtown Las Vegas, Stevens just added Arizona as Circa’s seventh licensed sports betting market, and he’s using the moment to make a broader case for why state-regulated sportsbooks still matter even as federally regulated prediction markets expand into sports wagering nationwide.
The Arizona Department of Gaming allocated an online sports betting license to Circa Sports Arizona LLC, with the operator entering the market as a designee for the San Juan Southern Paiute Tribe. It’s Circa’s sixth Arizona partnership formed through a tribal designation, joining bet365, Desert Diamond, Fanatics, Hard Rock Bet and betcris in that category. Stevens told Covers he’s targeting a January 2027 launch, though the Arizona Department of Gaming has not set a firm go-live date and is still working with Circa through the remaining steps required before the sportsbook can accept live wagers.
Why Circa Chose the Regulated Route
Stevens’ explanation for entering Arizona centers on fit. Circa runs what Stevens describes as a low-hold, high-volume model built around larger bets, sharp bettors, and thinner margins than the recreational-focused platforms that dominate market share nationally. Getting that model to work, he told Covers, depends heavily on landing in states where the regulatory structure and available partnerships make sense for how Circa actually operates.
“With Circa’s unique low-hold model, we’ve got to have the right regulatory environment in place,” Stevens said. “We have to be able to cut a type of deal that makes sense.”
Arizona checked those boxes. The market is mature, having legalized sports betting back in 2021, and its proximity to Las Vegas gives Circa a built-in cross-promotional link to its physical sportsbook and resort. Stevens also sees an opening in the timing: launching after the initial wave of competition has settled lets Circa target experienced bettors already familiar with how sports betting works, rather than spending heavily to win over first-time users the way earlier entrants did.
Betting Against the Prediction Market Wave
The more pointed part of Stevens’ comments to Covers was his read on where the industry is heading. Federally regulated prediction markets have expanded rapidly into sports-adjacent contracts, giving bettors a way to wager on game outcomes without a state gambling license standing in the way — a structure that has pulled real volume away from traditional sportsbooks in some markets. Stevens has previously argued that this shift threatens the state-regulated ecosystem itself, since prediction markets operate outside the tax revenue and responsible-gambling funding structures that license fees are built to support.
Despite that pressure, Stevens remains confident that state-regulated sports betting has staying power. He pointed to unresolved regulatory and legal questions still surrounding prediction markets’ sports contracts as reasons their long-term outlook is far from settled, in contrast to the established licensing framework Circa is expanding within. That confidence is part of why Circa continues pursuing new state licenses rather than shifting its own strategy toward the exchange-style model gaining traction elsewhere in the industry.
Circa’s low-hold approach has already produced tangible results elsewhere. In Missouri, the company secured an untethered sports betting license — a designation that let it operate without splitting revenue with a partner venue or team, the only other recipient being DraftKings. Stevens has said Circa’s hold percentage there runs under 5%, well below the 10%-plus figures DraftKings and FanDuel projected to Missouri regulators, a gap Stevens credits to the savings from skipping partnership fees altogether.
What Comes Next
Arizona will mark the fourth state where Circa deploys its newer proprietary betting platform, following rollouts in Iowa, Colorado and Missouri that expanded the available betting menu while keeping the company’s sharp-friendly, lower-limit-averse philosophy intact. Stevens said Circa doesn’t currently have another market deal in progress, but he’s continuing to evaluate opportunities where the regulatory environment lines up with how the operator wants to do business.
For bettors tracking where the industry goes from here, Circa’s Arizona entry is a reminder that state-by-state licensing still has real momentum, even as prediction markets reshape parts of the conversation around how sports wagering gets regulated. Anyone comparing the current landscape of legal sportsbooks against newer exchange-style platforms can find a rundown of options through resources like the prediction markets vs. sports betting guide, which breaks down how the two models differ heading into 2027.