FanDuel Predicts Set to Trail Rivals as Prediction Markets Chief Peter Jackson Departs Flutter

Flutter Entertainment is heading into the 2026-27 NBA season without the executive who built FanDuel into the top sportsbook brand in the United States. CEO Peter Jackson announced during Wednesday’s second-quarter earnings call that he will step down after nine years leading the company, with Dan Taylor set to take over on October 1. The shake-up lands as FanDuel Predicts, Flutter’s prediction markets arm, continues to fall behind rivals like Kalshi and DraftKings in the race for sports event contracts.

Jackson’s exit follows the departure of former FanDuel CEO Amy Howe earlier this year, meaning Flutter will enter the new NBA campaign without two of the executives who were in place at tip-off just a season ago. The timing stings — this time last year, FanDuel sat atop the sportsbook market. Now the company is grappling with a prediction markets business that analysts say is meaningfully behind the competition.

FanDuel Predicts Falls Off the Pace

The numbers tell the story. In June, Kalshi handled roughly 83% of notional trading volume share among prediction markets, leaving FanDuel Predicts well off the lead. That gap persisted even with a historic tailwind: the first World Cup held in North America since 1994 drove an estimated $50 billion in trading volume on event contracts tied to the tournament, yet FanDuel Predicts still couldn’t close the distance.

Flutter reported just $6 million in prediction market-related revenue for the second quarter and now projects only $50 million for the full year. That’s a stark contrast against category expenses the company expects to top $200 million in 2026, a gap that helps explain why Flutter cut its full-year US adjusted EBITDA guidance by 22%. Joe Stauff, senior research analyst at Susquehanna International Group, wrote in a research note that the guidance cut points to skepticism on customer retention, anxiety about intensifying competition heading into football season, and — perhaps most notably — an estimate that FanDuel is roughly 9-12 months behind DraftKings in building out its prediction markets offering.

A New CEO and a Pivot Away From CME

Incoming CEO Dan Taylor inherits the turnaround job. “I look forward to leading the business as we continue to innovate, grow and build on the strengths that make Flutter unique,” Taylor said in a statement announcing the transition. Alongside the leadership change, Flutter confirmed that FanDuel Predicts will shift all sports and novelty contracts from CME Group to Crypto.com, even though CME still holds a 51% stake in FanDuel Predicts and customers will retain access to CME financial derivatives.

Jackson, notably, has resisted launching Flutter’s own market-making exchange, telling analysts the company needs to be “thoughtful” about how it positions itself given the complexities of owning an internal exchange outright — a structure both Kalshi and Polymarket already operate under.

Wall Street Reaction Is Mixed

The stock market punished Flutter hard on the news, with shares dropping roughly 10% Wednesday to an intraday low of $89.71 — the lowest level in five years. Shares rebounded slightly Thursday, closing at $94.46, up 1.6%. Since its record close of $308.60 on August 28, 2025, Flutter has plunged more than 65%, with its market capitalization sliding from around $53 billion at its peak to just above $16 billion by Thursday’s close.

Not everyone is bearish. Hedge fund manager Michael Burry, made famous by “The Big Short,” disclosed on his Substack that he more than doubled his stake in Flutter, buying shares at an average cost of $90 and calling it a “fat pitch.” Burry pointed directly at prediction markets as the culprit behind the broader sportsbook stock sell-off, highlighting Kalshi’s $39.7 billion in annualized trading volume as evidence of the disruption. Susquehanna’s Stauff also flagged reasons for optimism, noting Flutter grew average monthly players by 30% in June and pointing to strong international growth — up 10% year-over-year, driven partly by Italy — as a path for the company to “course correct.” Stauff maintained a positive rating on the stock while trimming his price target from $121 to $115, and Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon cut his target from $190 to $160.

DraftKings Presses Its Advantage

The contrast with DraftKings was hard to miss when all four major US sportsbook operators reported earnings by Thursday evening. DraftKings maintained its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $6.5 billion to $6.9 billion and, for the first time, defined quarterly sports revenue to include online sportsbook, retail sportsbook, and prediction markets combined — generating $1.99 billion for the three months ended May 31, up 5.7% year-over-year. More than 600,000 customers have engaged with DraftKings’ predictions segment since the start of 2026.

“Predictions is already growing faster than we anticipated,” DraftKings CEO Jason Robins said. “Our playbook to innovate on a leading Predictions offering all underpin our confidence that we can win the category this NFL season and beyond.” With football season approaching and both companies racing to lock down bettors who are increasingly comfortable trading event contracts alongside — or instead of — traditional sports bets, Flutter’s leadership transition could shape whether FanDuel Predicts closes the gap or falls further behind before the NFL kicks off.