USA vs. Paraguay: USMNT Opens 2026 World Cup Tonight at SoFi Stadium With Three Points a Must

The United States men’s national team kicks off its 2026 FIFA World Cup campaign Friday night against Paraguay in front of a sellout crowd at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, with kickoff set for 9 p.m. ET on FOX. The Americans enter Group D as slight favorites in the most significant home match the program has played in three decades, carrying the weight of an entire nation and the pressure of performing on the biggest stage in world football — right in their own backyard.

Paraguay returns to the World Cup stage for the first time in 16 years, having secured their berth through a resolute South American qualifying campaign in which they conceded just 10 goals in 18 matches. Under coach Gustavo Alfaro, they have built a defensively compact, organized side led by veteran captain Gustavo Gomez, whose 85-plus international appearances make him one of the most experienced centerbacks in the field. The Americans, meanwhile, have been building toward this moment under head coach Mauricio Pochettino, who has steadily overhauled the team’s tactical identity since taking the role in late 2023.

Group D Is a Gauntlet — and Tonight Sets the Tone

The stakes of Friday’s opener are enormous. Group D — featuring the United States, Paraguay, Australia, and a dangerous Türkiye side powered by Real Madrid’s Arda Güler — is among the tournament’s most competitive brackets. A dropped result in the opener could force the USMNT into a must-win situation against Türkiye in their second group match. Sportsbooks have priced the Americans as the favorites, with USA listed at -105 on the 90-minute moneyline at FanDuel Sportsbook, Paraguay at +310, and a draw at +240. The over/under sits at 2.5 total goals, with the under heavily favored at -158. Bettors looking to get in on tonight’s action can also check the DraftKings Promo Code or the BetMGM Promo Code for first-bet offers ahead of kickoff.

USMNT: Star Power Up Front, Questions in the Back

For all the optimism surrounding this squad, Pochettino will be without Chris Richards, the team’s most reliable central defender, who is still managing the tail end of an ankle injury. That forces a defensive reshuffle, with Crystal Palace’s Mark McKenzie and 38-year-old captain Tim Ream — who holds 82 international caps — expected to anchor the backline alongside 21-year-old Villarreal defender Alex Freeman. In goal, New York City FC’s Matt Freese has earned the starting job as Pochettino’s clear first choice and will get the nod tonight.

Going forward, however, the Americans are loaded. Christian Pulisic — the captain and undisputed heartbeat of this program — leads the attack in Pochettino’s expected 3-5-2 formation. The AC Milan forward enters the tournament having shaken off a six-month goal drought during a late-May friendly against Senegal, and sportsbooks have him priced at +225 to score against Paraguay. Folarin Balogun leads the line after a tremendous club season at Monaco, where he posted 19 goals. Weston McKennie anchors central midfield following a contract extension at Juventus in March, while Fulham’s Antonee Robinson — who registered a thunderous goal against Germany in pre-tournament play — provides relentless energy at left wingback. Tyler Adams, refined by seasons at Liverpool under Andoni Iraola, brings the defensive midfield composure and ball-winning quality that this team has long craved. Malik Tillman adds creativity and progressive carrying from the middle third, and Sergiño Dest is expected to operate at right wingback, motivated by reported transfer interest from Bayern Munich.

Paraguay Weakened by Enciso Injury

The biggest development heading into tonight’s match is the confirmed absence of Brighton midfielder Julio Enciso, Paraguay’s most dynamic attacking weapon. Enciso suffered an injury last week and is expected to miss the opener — a significant blow for a team that depended on his technical skill and direct running to create chances. Without him, Paraguay will rely on captain Miguel Almiron to generate danger in the attacking third, with Antonio Sanabria as the target forward and Diego Gomez supplying chances from midfield. Alfaro’s side will almost certainly prioritize a low block, absorbing pressure and waiting for transition opportunities to strike. It is a sound plan against any opponent, but the loss of Enciso meaningfully diminishes their ceiling going forward. Fans who want to track live betting lines throughout the match can explore the full sportsbooks hub for current odds and offers.

The two sides met in a high-intensity friendly last November, with the United States claiming a 2-1 victory in Pennsylvania. That result provides confidence heading into tonight, even if Pochettino will caution against reading too much into pre-tournament form. For Paraguay, this World Cup represents an emotional homecoming to the sport’s largest stage after a 16-year absence, and the Alfaro-led squad will be motivated and desperate to show the world that their qualification was no accident. Prediction markets have the match priced as closer than the sportsbook moneylines suggest — Kalshi traders give the USMNT roughly a 48 percent chance of winning, with Paraguay at 24 percent and a draw at 29 percent. Fans looking to find value in those markets can also review the Caesars Sportsbook Promo Code for additional options.

Prediction

The Americans are healthier, more talented, and playing at home — all meaningful edges when the margin between success and failure at a World Cup can come down to a single moment. Paraguay’s loss of Julio Enciso reduces their threat significantly, and the USMNT’s attacking depth gives Pochettino real options off the bench if the game stays tight. Expect a composed, professional performance from the United States — not flashy, but effective.

• Prediction: United States 2, Paraguay 0
• Best Bet: USA to Win (Moneyline, -105)

Backing the under 2.5 goals at -158 also has merit. Paraguay has one of the stingier defenses in the tournament, and the USMNT did not score more than one goal in any match during the 2022 World Cup. A disciplined, controlled USA win with two or fewer total goals on the board is the most probable scenario as the 2026 World Cup gets underway in Los Angeles tonight.