World Cup Semifinals Preview: France vs. Spain and England vs. Argentina by the Numbers

The 2026 World Cup field is down to four teams, and both semifinals carry serious statistical weight for anyone tracking the tournament through a betting lens. France meets Spain on Tuesday, July 14 at 3:00 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, with FOX carrying the English broadcast, Telemundo handling Spanish-language coverage, and streaming available on FOX One and Peacock. A day later, England faces Argentina on Wednesday, July 15 at 3:00 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, also on FOX, Telemundo, FOX One and Peacock. Both matches arrive with two of the most complete statistical bodies of work left in the tournament, and the underlying numbers tell very different stories about how each side has gotten here.

France vs. Spain: A Historically Stingy Defense Meets a Knockout Specialist

No team left in the field has been more statistically dominant across six matches than France. Didier Deschamps’ side is a perfect 6-0, having outscored opponents 16-1 in the process — the highest goal output of any remaining team paired with the tournament’s best goals-against mark by a wide margin. The group-stage numbers set the tone (3-1 over Senegal, 3-0 over Iraq, 4-1 over Norway) before the knockout rounds turned into a defensive clinic: a 3-0 shutout of Sweden in the Round of 32, a 1-0 squeeze past Paraguay in the Round of 16, and a 2-0 quarterfinal win over Morocco built on goals from Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele. That one goal conceded across six matches — against a Round of 32-to-quarterfinal gauntlet — is the kind of defensive efficiency number that shapes market pricing on both the match result and the total goals line.

The attacking numbers are equally lopsided in France’s favor on paper. Mbappe leads the tournament with 8 goals and is chasing a place alongside Pele as the only player to win multiple World Cups before turning 27. Michael Olise has quietly put together a tournament-high 6 assists, one shy of Pele’s all-time single-World Cup assist record, while Dembele has added 5 goals and 2 assists of his own. Behind that attack, William Saliba and Dayot Upamecano have anchored a backline that has barely been tested in the final third — a profile that tends to keep totals markets and alternate spread lines interesting for bettors comparing France’s scoring margin to its opponent’s defensive resistance.

Spain’s route has been less explosive but arguably more battle-tested in one-goal situations. Luis de la Fuente’s side opened with a 0-0 draw against Cape Verde before beating Saudi Arabia 4-0 and Uruguay 1-0 in the group stage, then needed knockout-round moments to get past Austria (3-0), Portugal (1-0) and Belgium — the last of those decided by an 88th-minute winner from substitute Mikel Merino. Merino has now scored the winning goal in back-to-back knockout matches off the bench, becoming the first player in World Cup history to do that, a trend that bettors tracking anytime-scorer and bench-impact markets will want to note heading into the semifinal. Lamine Yamal, meanwhile, has just 1 goal this tournament — a group-stage strike against Saudi Arabia — a notable dip from the explosive form he showed at Euro 2024 and in Nations League play, while Pedri and Rodri have carried the midfield control that’s typified Spain’s results.

The head-to-head backdrop adds another layer for anyone shopping lines across DraftKings promo code markets or comparing early World Cup odds boards. Spain holds an 18-13-7 edge across 38 all-time meetings and has outscored France 71-44 historically, but the two sides have met at a World Cup only once — France’s 3-1 Round of 16 win in 2006. More recent history favors Spain sharply: a 5-4 win in the 2025 UEFA Nations League semifinal and a 2-1 win in the Euro 2024 semifinal, both matches that came down to fine margins late.

England vs. Argentina: Unbeaten Depth Against Golden Boot Continuity

Thomas Tuchel’s England has been the field’s most durable team rather than its flashiest, riding a 5-1-0 record into the semifinal without a single loss. The group stage produced a 4-2 win over Croatia, a 0-0 draw with Ghana and a 2-0 win over Panama, and the knockout rounds have been anything but comfortable: a 2-1 win over DR Congo, a 3-2 win over Mexico, and a 2-1 extra-time win over Norway in the quarterfinal. Harry Kane has scored 6 goals, and Jude Bellingham has matched that total while also authoring the signature moment of England’s run — equalizing and then scoring the extra-time winner against Norway. Anthony Gordon has been the primary creative outlet, Declan Rice and Elliot Anderson have controlled midfield tempo, and Jordan Pickford has produced multiple key knockout-round saves. The Guehi-Konsa-James backline has conceded in five of six matches, a very different defensive profile than France’s, and one relevant to anyone comparing total-goals numbers between the two semifinals.

Argentina’s underlying numbers read like a team getting stronger, not more fortunate, as the competition has progressed. Group J was a perfect sweep — wins over Algeria, Austria and Jordan produced 8 goals scored against just 1 allowed — and the knockout matches have leaned on late-game composure: a 3-2 extra-time win over Cape Verde debutants in the Round of 32, a comeback from 2-0 down to beat Egypt 3-2 in the Round of 16 (sealed by Julian Alvarez), and a 3-1 extra-time win over Switzerland in the quarterfinal after trailing 1-1 through 90 minutes, with Alvarez curling in the go-ahead goal before Lautaro Martinez closed it out. This is Argentina’s sixth all-time World Cup semifinal appearance, and remarkably, Lionel Scaloni’s side has converted every one of its previous five semifinal trips into a final berth — a continuity stat that betting markets pricing Argentina’s knockout-round resilience will lean on regardless of how this specific matchup plays out.

Lionel Messi has matched Mbappe atop the tournament scoring chart with 8 goals and has found the net in every knockout match Argentina has played, while Lautaro Martinez arrives on the back of a 22-goal club season with Inter Milan and Alvarez has been the decisive difference-maker in multiple knockout matches. On the other end, Emiliano Martinez — a two-time Yashin Trophy winner in 2023 and 2024 as the sport’s top goalkeeper — gives Argentina a proven closer in the kind of tight, extra-time knockout scenarios that have defined their run. Cristian Romero and Lisandro Martinez have anchored the backline in front of him. Beyond the numbers, this is a rivalry renewal in its own right — England and Argentina haven’t met in 21 years, ending one of international football’s longest dormant series just as both programs arrive with two of the tournament’s most complete statistical resumes. Bettors weighing the moneyline and total-goals markets across books like FanDuel promo code offers or BetMGM promo code boards will find both extra-time knockout survival and finishing depth are the two biggest data points shaping how the market treats this one.

Taken together, the two semifinals present contrasting statistical puzzles. France’s historic defensive number sits against Spain’s habit of winning knockout matches by the smallest possible margin, often via a substitute’s late strike. England’s knockout survival instinct meets an Argentina team that has now won three straight knockout matches by overcoming a deficit or needing extra time, all while its two leading scorers keep producing on the tournament’s biggest stage. For bettors comparing lines across Caesars Sportsbook Promo Code and Fanatics Sportsbook Promo Code markets, both matches carry enough scoring-margin context to study before kickoff.