After an underwhelming run of play, Euro 2024 finally delivered two phenomenal semi-final matchups. Spain got goals from Lamine Yamal and Dani Olmo, defeating France 2-1 on Tuesday. England scored on a Harry Kane PK and got a 90th-minute winner from Ollie Watkins to beat Netherlands 2-1.
The result sets up a Spain vs England final on Sunday at 3:00 PM EDT.
Moneyline (Regular Time) Odds: Spain (+145) | Draw (+185) | England (+235)
Winner Odds: Spain (-150) vs England (+115)
Total Goals (Regular Time): Over 2.5 (+150) | Under 2.5 (-200)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
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England may have entered Euro 2024 as the betting favorite, but Spain has looked like the best team throughout the tournament.
In our Euro preview, we mentioned that the style of play for this team would look much different than what we've seen from previous versions of La Roja. With Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal on the wings, Spain is willing to concede possession at times to create space for their attacking players.
Lamine Yamal gets the headlines, but the play from Spain's midfield, particularly Rodri, Ruiz, and Olmo, has been the real story. If Walker and Shaw hold up against the young Spanish wings, this game will come down to how well England is able to deal with the Spanish midfield.
Gareth Southgate was under immense pressure heading into the semi-final against a Dutch side that had impressed throughout the tournament. He and his team responded by dominating possession (58.5%) and getting a 90th-minute goal from Ollie Watkins, who came on as a late sub by Southgate.
The performance was a significant improvement for England, and Phil Foden in particular, who was able to find his way forward and looked much more comfortable. However, to us, it was the play of Kobbie Mainoo that made the difference here. His constant pressure seemed to keep the ball on the Dutch half for most of the game.
If England is going to beat Spain in the final, Mainoo and Rice will need another strong performance. They have to find a way to keep possession and allow Foden to get forward with Bellingham, Saka, and Kane.
Spain has been the best team throughout this tournament, and their semifinal performance against France proved that. They scored twice against a French defense that had allowed only one goal (from a PK) throughout the tournament.
England won't see 58%+ of possession in the final and will struggle to create chances. Forced to defend for much of the game, we think they concede a goal and that's enough for a Spain win here.
Final Prediction: Spain 1 - England 0