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It happens that value opportunity is plentiful this weekend with high stakes plays firing across Serie A, Premier League, and the FA Cup on Saturday. End-of-season market factors are heavily influencing bookmaker and market prices providing ample value opportunity. The increased risk corresponds with value edge estimations. While we accumulate some net closing line value on Saturday, expected value is higher than closing line value results suggest on the Torino, Inter Milan, and Roma plays. Additionally, immensely high closing line values akin to the West Ham play are pending in our Sunday portfolio. Away wins compromise most value selections for Saturday.
Spezia v. Torino | Serie A | 9 am ET
THE PLAY: Torino PK @ -135 | .35u
THE PLAY: Torino ML @ +156 | .45u
THE PLAY: Torino -1 @ +299 | .2u
Prices currently widely available within $.05 (slightly more expensive) at time of writing.
We had accumulated significant closing line value on this play before the Rossoneri’s midweek drubbing of Il Toro. Recency bias factors into the current market, presenting late players a value opportunity which would not normally be available. Spezia has one league win in the past two months having beat relegation-bound and bottom goal difference, expected goal difference, and expected points side Crotone seven matches ago.
Juventus v. Inter Milan | Serie A | Noon ET
THE PLAY: Inter Milan PK @ +155 | .225u
THE PLAY: Inter Milan ML @ +250 | .5u
THE PLAY: Inter Milan -1 @ +490 | .5u
THE PLAY: Inter Milan 1H -1 @ +1300 | .325u
Current PK Price: +143 at MarathonBet
Current ML Price: +234 at MarathonBet
Current Alternate Line Price: +459 at MarathonBet
Closing Line Value PK Play: $.12 (or .12u)
Closing Line Value ML Play: $.16 (or .16u)
Closing Line Value Alternate Line Play: $.31 (or .31)
We expect further closing line value accumulation from backing Antonio Conte’s Serie A Champions in this midday Derby d’Italia. Regardless, the play furnishes a plus expected value staking occasion. Internazionale is markedly the better squad by all advanced statistics but having locked in Scudetto glory for the first time in ten years, the markets favor the Bianconeri heavily in consideration of its motivations to push for Champions League football next season.
In our estimation, the market’s pricing integrates these motivational factors in much too distinct a manner. Antonio Conte has personal motivations that would include keeping Juventus from reaching Champions League football next season while the club holds animosity in this heated Italian rivalry as well. Accordingly, we perceive an incredible value occasion where we can lay the better squad, the better coach, and the better price in a match that should be fiercely contested. Can we cash on the straw that broke Andrea Pirlo’s back?
Chelsea v. Leicester City | FA Cup | 12:15 pm ET
THE PLAY: Leicester City PK @ +191 | .7u
THE PLAY: Leicester City -1 @ +680 | .15u
THE PLAY: Leicester City win to nil @ +550 | .15u
Current PK Price: +218 at MarathonBet
Closing Line Value PK Play: -$.27 (or -.27u)
This pick is in collaboration with Data Driven Pick who has profited over 110u in a year at immense clip of almost 8% return on investment. Did I mention the selections are free?
Although we still believe the Foxes can produce our desired outcome, prices have slipped on these selections. The cause in our botched price was a slight misinterpretation/miscalculation of Tuchel’s preferences and squad rotation by FtL, so we apologize for not waiting on this one. Late players have solid opportunity here.
Roma v. Lazio | Serie A | 2:45 pm ET
THE PLAY: Roma ML @ +213 | .75u
THE PLAY: Roma -1 @ +475 | .125u
THE PLAY: Roma 1H -1 @ +780 | .125u
Currently available at MarathonBet.
Substantial value presentation here for late takers with Lazio’s recent form. Roma’s April performances and concurrent injury crisis have suppressed its market price for the past month. In this instance, Roma have performed better in the past three matches with multiple squad players returning from the injury list.
Brighton v. West Ham United | Premier League | 3:00 pm ET
THE PLAY: West Ham United PK @ +115 | .5u
THE PLAY: West Ham United PK @ +121 | 1u
THE PLAY: West Ham United 1H ML @ +272 | .15u
THE PLAY: West Ham United -1 @ +460 | .15u
Current PK Price: -132 at Pinncale
Current 1H ML Price: +216 at MarathonBet
Current Alternate Line Price: +298 at Pinnacle
Closing Line Value PK Play: $.50 (or .5u)
Closing Line Value 1H ML Play: $.56 (or .56u)
Closing Line Value Alternate Line Play: $1.62 (or 1.62u)
The closing line value should speak for itself here. Declan Rice returns for the Hammers to boost our desired probability outcome.
THE PLAYS
Torino PK @ -135 | .35u
Torino ML @ +156 | .45u
Torino -1 @ +299 | .2u
Inter Milan PK @ +155 | .225u
Inter Milan ML @ +250 | .5u
Inter Milan -1 @ +490 | .5u
Inter Milan 1H -1 @ +1300 | .325u
Leicester City PK @ +191 | .7u
Leicester City -1 @ +680 | .15u
Leicester City win to nil @ +550 | .15u
Roma ML @ +213 | .75u
Roma -1 @ +475 | .125u
Roma 1H -1 @ +780 | .125u
West Ham United PK @ +115 | .5u
West Ham United PK @ +121 | 1u
West Ham United 1H ML @ +272 | .15u
West Ham United -1 @ +460 | .15u
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