6 Month Results Recap
Good morning everyone! We, at Feinting the Line, are thrilled to present our tracked cumulative results from our initial six months providing public selections via our Twitter page. If you are new to our content, please check out our Bettors Insider introduction post, as well, for a complete breakdown of our gambling style, history, and content. For those who have been along for the ride, here we are six months later…
Importantly, our return on investment – as calculated by units returned divided by units risked – is positive. Even better, we come in at just over 6%! Truly could not be happier with this result considering this is our initial six months of public selections. We are creeping towards some solid statistical significance across an 1,155 bet sample size with an average stake of approximately .785u.
Our bets carry an average line of +196 implying a probability of 33.8%. We hit our bets at a 40% rate. These factors imply a 6.2% value edge per bet. Our average line per unit risked weighs out to +207 implying a hit rate per unit risked of 32.6%. We hit 45.4% of our bets per unit risked. Consequently, our results imply a 12.83984% value edge per unit risked.
Our highest gross profit month was February with +28.58623u while our least profitable returns occurred in December with -11.981u. We average just over 7u earned per month over the span.
We accumulated a total of +56.3046u in six months (September had only 2 days active) with 412 wins and 618 losses.
Some Thoughts
1. Thank you to anyone who has interacted, collaborated, or followed along.
2. Really proud to be over 5% ROI and hoping to stay over that mark as statistical significance mounts.
3. Our style can be described as “volume value”. We source bets for closing line value and expected value to find spots where we perceive value opportunities. Followers will know that our closing line value accumulated is the reason for our profit. Late expected value takes where we perceive line inflation contribute to profitability as well.
4. Long term profitable industry bettors emphasize these factors, so be aware of what factors you follow and what factors the people you follow emphasize!
5. If you are paying for a capping service, your capper should at least provide these basic statistics to indicate a likelihood of long-term profitability.
6. Over 70% of our selections placed since January have accumulated positive closing line value.
7. Remember staking methods are crucial to profitability. So-called “10u”, max, or whale plays that touts spread online are unsustainable and unprofitable long term because risking greater than 7.5% of your bankroll on one play in a zero-sum investment involves too much downside.
8. Long term profitable bettors bet numbers not teams. This does not mean hammer the total. Simply put, there is never a right side to a game, only a right number at a right price. Profitable investments are a simple formula that is difficult to calculate: one where the implied probability of the desired outcome of the investment at the oddsmaker’s granted price is less than the actual desired probability outcome.
9. I would be remiss not to mention my good friend who has benefitted this account’s following and success as well as my personal journey tremendously along the way. DataDrivenPick provides incredible value selections on Twitter and has profited over 100u with an ROI of around 7.3%. Did I mention these valuable and profitable selections are free?