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THE PLAY: Sampdoria PK @ -122 | .575u
THE PLAY: Sampdoria -1 @ +290 | .375u
Sampdoria enters the match two spots higher in the table than Benevento. Sampdoria’s -1 goal difference in the league is consistent with its spot in the table; however, Benevento seems to be punching above its weight at twelfth in the table despite a -17 goal difference this season in Serie A. Sampdoria visits the Stadio Ciro Vigorito coming off a week’s rest as does its opponent.
Marginally cheaper prices are now available for these plays. Regardless, we see value in these spots at an implied probability of 38.5% (based on best ML price of +160 at time we took the plays) considering we estimate Sampdoria wins matches at like conditions at a 40.75% - 42.25% rate.
Eight of Benevento’s ten losses in Serie A this season have come at a margin of greater than one. Accordingly, we believe the alternate line carries some added value compared to the ML.
THE PLAY: Athletic Bilbao/Valencia o2 @ -140 | .36u
We have garnered significant closing line value on this play since we posted to our Twitter five days ago considering the play is a total bet and within the -150 to +150 threshold. The best o2 price now available is at Pinnacle at -158.
We think the play is about appropriately priced currently considering we estimate three or more goals are scored in this match about 46% - 47.5% of the time. An implied probability of 46% at the current o2.5 price of +119 is consistent with our estimation.
The security of a push opportunity at the o2 price of -140, therefore, provides considerable value. Vegas admitted just as much as we have gained $.18 (or .18u) of closing line value.
THE PLAY: LOSC Lille ML @ -110 | .91u
THE PLAY: LOSC Lille -1 @ +171 | .25u
The best available Lille ML price has risen to -123 at Pinnacle. Accordingly, we have garnered $.13 (or .13u) of closing line value on our ML play. The marginal movement is not too significant; however, we expect these plays to become more expensive as game time approaches.
Regardless of line movement we believe the ML play at -110 provides value. While the price implies a probability of 52.4% for our desired outcome, we estimate our actual desired outcome probability rests between 55.5% - 56.75%.
While the ML and alternate line prices have become more expensive for Lille over time, the alternate line price has not become as expensive as one would expect based on the ML movement. Consequently, we believe marginal value may exist on the alternate line and will dabble a small play there as well. The +171 price for the Lille -1 play is available at Pinnacle.
Lille has already doubled Nantes’ point tally this season with thirteen points to spare. Christophe Galtier’s side can restore its position at the top of the league with three points to leapfrog Lyon (played Saturday). Lille’s goal difference is +40 in Ligue One this season compared to Nantes. Additionally, Lille boasts the second-stingiest defense in the top-flight of France. Renato Sanches is back in the side which raises the ceiling of this squad to a new level. We rely on Sanches to control the middle of the park and decide the game with a few telling through balls.
THE PLAY: Manchester City win to nil @ +375 | .5u
This play is quickly becoming a staple on our card. The reason being that the play has provided positive closing line value almost every Manchester City game this season. Once again, our early Manchester City win to nil play has paid off in the form of closing line value.
We have garnered a whopping $.75 (or .75u) of closing line value since posting this play to our Twitter page three days ago. Best price now available is at Bovada (+300).
Additionally, we feel great about our chances tactically if Pep Guardiola deploys the same back five of his XI as last time out. A back line of Joao Cancelo, Ruben Dias, John Stones, and Aymeric Laporte is near unplayable. When you have Rodri protecting those four as well, it will always be a long night for the opponent’s attack.
Obviously, we understand Liverpool may score; however, this play provides loads of value at a price of +375. The oddsmakers have admitted as much. Team-form and the analytics back the take as well.
THE PLAY: SV Werder Bremen PK @ -137 | .4u
THE PLAY: SV Werder Bremen -1 @ +320 | .5u
These exact prices are currently the best available. They can be found at MarathonBet and 888sport, respectively.
Although we anticipated line movement on these plays, we will not fret if prices hold true. We believe Werder Bremen is undervalued in the spot at an implied win probability of 40.3% by the bookmakers at a ML price of +148 (currently available at MarathonBet). We estimate Werder Bremen wins similarly situated matches at a 2.5% - 3.75% higher clip than the bookmakers suggest here.
Werder Bremen visits Bielefeld on 22 points from 19 games. Arminia Bielefeld has gained 17 points from the same number of games while posting a -17 goal difference. Meanwhile, Florian Kohfeldt’s side has conceded less and scored more with a goal difference of -3 in the Bundesliga this season.
Three of Werder Bremen’s five Bundesliga wins have come via at least two goals. The team has also drawn seven Bundesliga matches. Hence, we opt for the safety of the draw no bet coupled with the juiced payout of the alternate line in a bid to maximize our value.
Sampdoria PK @ -122 | .575u
Sampdoria -1 @ +290 | .375u
Athletic Bilbao/Valencia o2 @ -140 | .36u
LOSC Lille ML @ -110 | .91u
LOSC Lille -1 @ +171 | .25u
Manchester City win to nil @ +375 | .5u
SV Werder Bremen PK @ -137 | .4u
SV Werder Bremen -1 @ +320 | .5u
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