3 NHL Goal Scorer and Assist Props to Back on October 21

Two games, four teams, and a thin Wednesday NHL board. Flyers visit Sabres and Panthers visit Senators, both at 7:30 PM ET. On a slate this small, the smart play is to skip the noise and attack the one game with a clear pricing gap. That game is Florida at Ottawa, where a backup goalie, a banged-up Panthers lineup and a stack of model-flagged scorers all point the same direction.

Our three player props lean on the numbers, not the names: two anytime goal scorer bets priced north of +200 and one assist line sitting at essentially even money. Each carries either a verifiable model edge or a sustained production trend, and each benefits from the same storyline. Jacob Markstrom is out with an upper-body injury, so Akira Schmid is expected to start in the Florida crease, and Ottawa gets a Panthers team that is scoring at will.

Tim Stutzle Anytime Goal Scorer (+210)

Tim Stutzle has been the engine of Ottawa’s offense. Through nine games he owns 5 goals and 7 assists for 12 points, with a 31.3% shooting percentage on 16 shots, and he is logging more than 22 minutes a night. He has already scored on the power play and shorthanded, which tells you how many different ways the Senators deploy him.

The price is where the value lives. Dimers’ simulation model puts Stutzle’s anytime goal probability in the 36-38% range, and +210 implies a break-even point of roughly 32%. That gap is the entire bet. Florida’s crease is also in flux: Markstrom is expected to miss 10-14 days, which pushes Schmid into the starter’s role. Schmid enters at 2-1-1 with a .876 save percentage, a shaky number against a Senators group playing at home.

There is one caution worth stating plainly. Schmid has a 2-0-1 career record against Ottawa with a .927 save percentage in those games. That is a small sample, and Stutzle is a hot shooter priced like a coin flip with a bonus. We will take the plus money.

Sam Reinhart Anytime Goal Scorer (+215)

Reinhart is the quiet beneficiary of Florida’s recent surge. He skates between Carter Verhaeghe and Lars Eller in Tuesday’s practice lines, and he is coming off a Saturday night in which he scored on the power play off a no-look cross-ice feed from Matthew Tkachuk, then added an assist in the 8-3 win over Seattle.

Dimers rates Reinhart’s anytime goal at 36.2% with a 4.5% edge at +215, one of the larger edges on the Wednesday card. Florida has outscored opponents 18-8 during its three-game winning streak, and the power play that started the season at 3.6% has clicked on 6 of its last 10 chances. Reinhart’s Saturday goal came as a one-timer from the top of the slot, and the best number we found on this prop, +215, is at DraftKings, so a DraftKings promo code is worth a look if you are signing up.

Ottawa’s Linus Ullmark has been excellent this season at 6-1-0 with a 1.33 GAA, so this is not a soft landing. But Reinhart’s role as a shooter on a team averaging 3.33 goals per game gives him enough paths to cash at better than 2-to-1.

Matthew Tkachuk OVER 0.5 Assists (+100 to +114)

The cleanest bet on the board might be the one with the least glamour. Matthew Tkachuk is riding an eight-game scoring streak that has produced 14 points, and 11 of them are assists. Over his last four games he has 10 points and 20 shots on goal, and he racked up five power-play points over a two-game stretch last week. He added three assists against Seattle on Saturday.

The role explains the production. Tkachuk skates on a line with his brother Brady and Sam Bennett, a trio built to generate chances. Brady returns to Ottawa for the first time since being traded to Florida in June and was named the NHL’s First Star of the Week after 10 points, so expect an emotional night and plenty of offensive-zone time. Every goal that line scores is likely to run through Matthew’s stick.

Books are hanging this line at roughly +100 to +114, with some shops closer to -102, so shop around before you lock it in. Plus money on a player cashing assists at this rate is a gift. The only real risk is a quiet night from the finishers, and Florida’s offense has not had many of those lately.

Lock These In

Everything lines up in the same building. Florida’s goalie situation is unsettled, Ottawa’s home crowd will be loud, and plus-money prices on these three bets still understate how often these players deliver. Check your book for the best number before you bet.

• Tim Stutzle Anytime Goal Scorer (+210)
• Sam Reinhart Anytime Goal Scorer (+215)
• Matthew Tkachuk OVER 0.5 Assists (+100 to +114)

Prices move quickly on a two-game slate, so grab the best number early and treat the edge as real only at plus money.