Stars (+153) @ Golden Knights (5)
Pick: Over 5
Vegas has been a bit unlucky in this series as the Golden Knights face elimination in Game 5 of the Western Conference Final tonight against Dallas. In Games 3 and 4, Vegas combined to outshoot the Stars 73-43, yet lost both games and scored just three goals in the two games. The play-driving metrics certainly indicate that the Golden Knights deserved a better fate.
It’s no secret backup goaltender Anton Khudobin has been brilliant for Dallas in Ben Bishop’s absence. Sooner or later, I’m expecting to Khudobin to regress at least a little bit and Vegas to score at least three goals. I’ll take my chances that tonight is that night. Dallas showed an ability to win higher-scoring games as well in the second round against Colorado so rather than lay a hefty price on the Vegas money line, I’d prefer to go over the total tonight in an elimination game for the Golden Knights.