49ers vs. Raiders Preseason Finale Odds: Backup QB Battles Shape the Line at Allegiant Stadium

The preseason finale between the San Francisco 49ers and Las Vegas Raiders kicks off Thursday at 8 p.m. ET at Allegiant Stadium, and while the scoreboard won’t matter much in the standings, it matters plenty to a handful of quarterbacks fighting for their NFL futures. Both teams enter Week 3 of the preseason at 1-1, and this is the last game before rosters get trimmed to 53 players.

Las Vegas opened as a modest home favorite, and the number has moved in the Raiders’ direction as kickoff approaches. DraftKings currently lists the Raiders at -3.5 with the 49ers at +3.5, and the total sits at 37.5 points. Las Vegas’ moneyline has drifted as low as roughly -136, with San Francisco priced near +113. That line movement lines up with the situational reality here: the Raiders still have a legitimate quarterback competition to settle, while the 49ers are mostly protecting bodies before a long trip.

Why the Line Favors Vegas

San Francisco is not expected to play Brock Purdy, and backup Mac Jones has reportedly not been sharp through camp, which raises the odds Kyle Shanahan leans on his QB3 competition for extended snaps. That competition has been between 2025 seventh-round pick Kurtis Rourke and offseason addition Adrian Martinez, and by most camp reports Rourke has had the better of it, completing roughly 68% of his throws in limited preseason work. Rourke is dealing with a rib injury that has him questionable for Thursday, which could open the door for more Martinez snaps if Rourke can’t finish the night.

Mon, Oct 19 • 8:15 PM	Spread	Money	Total
Washington Commanders	+7.5 (-112)	+330	O 51.5 (-105)
San Francisco 49ers	-7.5 (-110)	-400	U 51 (-109)

On the other side, Las Vegas has arguably the most compelling quarterback situation left in the league. Kirk Cousins is the presumptive Week 1 starter, but the Raiders still have not officially named him, and head coach Klint Kubiak has repeatedly said he does not want any position group getting comfortable. Rookie first overall pick Fernando Mendoza has flashed in stretches but was rocky in Week 2 against Houston, while veteran Aidan O’Connell authored a 19-0 second-half comeback in that same game to keep his roster spot very much alive. Some outside roster projections have the Raiders keeping only two quarterbacks, which would make O’Connell’s performance Thursday a legitimate make-or-break moment.

Roster Bubble Battles Worth Betting Angles

Beyond the passing game, there are real jobs on the line defensively. Las Vegas’ cornerback spot opposite Eric Stokes has come down to a tight race between second-year corner Darien Porter and rookie Hezekiah “Zeke” Masses, and recent practice reports plus limited preseason usage suggest Porter has pulled ahead. San Francisco, meanwhile, still hasn’t settled its starting left guard spot or the second safety job next to Ji’Ayir Brown, where Malik Mustapha’s hamstring issue has let Marques Sigle take the lead by default. Shanahan called the roster picture “extremely fluid all the way up to the cutdown,” and with more than 20 players banged up in some form, injury replacement battles could shift by kickoff.

For bettors, that unpredictability usually points toward the total. The under has drawn notable support at 37.5, with some markets pricing it around a coin flip lean toward the under given both offenses will be light on established starters. Sharper preseason bettors who dig through practice reports for who’s actually active tend to find value here, and checking a DraftKings promo code before kickoff is worth doing given the number has already moved.

Prediction and Best Bet

San Francisco’s offense should still move the ball behind Rourke or Martinez against a Raiders defense that will also be rotating bubble players throughout the night, but home-field continuity and Las Vegas’ deeper quarterback room tip this one toward the Raiders covering a shorter number.

• Prediction: Raiders 23, 49ers 20
• Best Bet: Raiders -3.5

The Raiders have more established backups getting real reps with continuity from a Week 2 comeback win, while San Francisco is banged up enough that its top backup quarterback candidate is questionable to finish the game, making Las Vegas the safer side to lay the field goal with.