Buccaneers vs. Jets Preseason Prediction: Backup QBs and Roster Bubble Battles Take Center Stage

The preseason kicks off Friday night at MetLife Stadium as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel north to face the New York Jets in each team’s first live action of 2026. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET, with the broadcast on NFL Network capping off a week that saw the two clubs hold joint practices in Florham Park before renewing acquaintances under the lights. Both teams enter at 0-0, but the storylines couldn’t be more different: Tampa Bay is trying to sort out its quarterback room without its top two options, while New York is using this opener to get a first competitive look at its presumptive starter and the rookie pushing for the backup job.

Why the Line Keeps Moving Depending on Who Suits Up

Books opened the Jets as roughly a touchdown favorite before the market settled into the 5.5- to 6-point range, with New York’s moneyline sitting around -258 to -265 and Tampa Bay a road underdog near +210 to +215. The total has hovered near 35.5 to 36.5. The spread reflects lineup news as much as anything: Todd Bowles has already ruled out Baker Mayfield for the opener, and backup Jake Browning’s status has been in question after a camp injury, which leaves Connor Bazelak and undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels as the only healthy quarterbacks Tampa Bay plans to dress. On the other side, Geno Smith is scheduled to see snaps in the Jets’ preseason opener, giving New York a clear experience edge on the depth chart even in a game where starters typically play sparingly.

The Real Storylines: Backups, Rookies and Roster Bubbles

Forget the scoreboard logic of the regular season — this game is about answering personnel questions before the 53-man cutdown. For the Jets, the headline is the battle behind Geno Smith. Fourth-round pick Cade Klubnik has separated himself from Bailey Zappe and Brady Cook throughout camp and was listed outright as the No. 2 quarterback on New York’s first unofficial depth chart, a notable outcome given how many position battles around the league end up listed as co-starters. Klubnik already flashed in camp scrimmage work, connecting with tight end Jelani Woods for a touchdown, and Friday is his first chance to build on that against a defense that isn’t running its own starters. Elsewhere for New York, the secondary is worth tracking, with Andre Cisco, Malachi Moore and Dane Belton all competing for reps opposite Minkah Fitzpatrick as the coaching staff sorts out its safety rotation.

Tampa Bay’s night is defined by scarcity at quarterback rather than competition. With Mayfield out and Browning banged up, Bazelak — who filled in during relief duty last season and impressed coaches with how quickly he absorbed the playbook — gets the start, with Daniels also expected to see extended run behind him. That means significantly more live reps for both than either anticipated entering the week, which cuts both ways: more opportunity to make a roster statement, but also more exposure behind a offensive line still settling its own competitions. Up front, the Buccaneers have real jobs on the line at cornerback, where Zyon McCollum, Benjamin Morrison and Jacob Parrish are all vying for outside spots after Jamel Dean’s departure in free agency, and along the defensive line rotation behind returning starters like Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey. Rookie first-rounder Rueben Bain Jr. is expected to be held out along with the rest of Tampa Bay’s projected starters, keeping the spotlight on the roster’s fringe pieces. Wide receiver is similarly crowded even without Mike Evans in the picture, with Chris Godwin Jr., Emeka Egbuka, Jalen McMillan, Tez Johnson and Kameron Johnson all needing to show something to lock in snaps once the games start counting. New York’s run game competition is also worth a glance, as Braelon Allen, Isaiah Davis and Kene Nwangwu jockey for reps behind Breece Hall in what should be a run-heavy night for both offenses given the quarterback situations.

Bettors weighing this one should also check the latest lines and shop for the best number before kickoff, since preseason spreads can shift quickly on last-minute inactives. A DraftKings Promo Code or FanDuel Promo Code can be worth grabbing before locking in a preseason side, and a quick pass through an Odds and Probability Calculator helps confirm the implied win chance behind these numbers.

Sun, Sep 13 • 1:00 PM	Spread	Money	Total
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	+4 (-113)	+172	O 50.5 (-108)
Cincinnati Bengals	-4 (-108)	-205	U 50.5 (-112)

Prediction and Best Bet

New York’s edge here comes down to who’s throwing the ball. Geno Smith taking live snaps against a Tampa Bay defense missing its top pass rusher in Bain gives the Jets a cleaner path to early points, and Cade Klubnik has looked sharp enough in camp that a clean red zone connection wouldn’t be a surprise if he gets extended second-half run. Tampa Bay’s offense, meanwhile, is leaning on a backup and an undrafted rookie behind a line that’s still figuring out its own pecking order, which points to a slower, more mistake-prone night moving the ball. Expect a game that stays low-scoring in the first half before backups on both sides loosen things up late.

• Prediction: New York Jets 20, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13
• Best Bet: Jets on the spread

This is the best bet because New York starts the more established quarterback against a Tampa Bay defense playing without its top edge rusher, while the Buccaneers are forced to lean on a backup and a rookie behind center for the bulk of the night — a talent and continuity gap that should be enough to cover even with backups closing the game out on both sides. For bettors who prefer to compare markets before locking in a side, checking a BetMGM Sportsbook Review or Caesars Sportsbook Review is a good way to see how the major books stack up on preseason lines.