Broncos vs. Falcons Preseason Opener: Odds, Backup QB Battles, and a Betting Pick for Friday Night in Atlanta

The preseason officially kicks off Friday night at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, where the Denver Broncos will visit the Falcons in the first exhibition game for both franchises. The Broncos are coming off an AFC Championship appearance and return 20 of 22 starters on both sides of the ball, making this as low-stakes as a “big” preseason opener can get for a legitimate contender. Atlanta, meanwhile, is still sorting out one of the more fascinating subplots in the league: an open quarterback competition between Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. that head coach Kevin Stefanski has refused to resolve before kickoff. Neither team’s true difference-makers figure to see much of the field, but there’s still plenty on the line for the players fighting to make both rosters.

What the Odds Say About These Two Teams

Bookmakers have installed Denver as a fairly firm road favorite for a preseason game, with the spread opening at -3.5 and drifting as high as -5.5 in the days leading up to kickoff before settling in the -3.5 to -4.5 range depending on the book. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Broncos at -4.5 (-108) and the Falcons at +4.5 (-112), while other shops list Denver anywhere from -3.5 to -5.5. The moneyline reflects a similar gap, with Denver around -192 to -198 and Atlanta priced between +160 and +164, and bettors who want to weigh the true value of either number can run it through an odds calculator before placing anything. The total sits in the high-30s to low-40s, moving from an opening 37.5 up to as high as 40.5 at some outlets, with most books now hovering around 39.5. That kind of movement suggests the market expects a decent amount of scoring from backups and camp battlers trying to make a highlight or two before final cuts.

The Real Storylines: Backup Battles and Depth Chart Fights

Bo Nix is sitting out Denver’s preseason opener entirely, which hands the keys to a legitimately heated QB2 competition between Jarrett Stidham and Sam Ehlinger. Stidham has been Denver’s primary backup since 2023 and made his lone appearance of note last season in relief of Nix during the AFC Championship Game, a performance that didn’t exactly lock down the job. Ehlinger, entering his second year with the Broncos, has pushed his way onto the second-team offense in practice and will get real run behind Stidham in this game — head coach Sean Payton confirmed each quarterback will play a half, with Stidham starting. Denver’s first depth chart of the summer still lists Stidham as the No. 2 and Ehlinger as No. 3, but Friday is one of the last chances for Ehlinger to flip that order before roster cuts. Denver also has an unexpected center situation to monitor, with starter Luke Wattenberg and top backup Alex Forsyth both banged up and Calvin Throckmorton sliding over from guard to handle first-team center reps.

On the other sideline, Atlanta’s quarterback picture is even murkier. Tagovailoa, signed for just over a million dollars after his release from Miami, will start the opener and is expected to get around ten plays before giving way to veteran Cooper Rush and undrafted rookie Jack Strand. Michael Penix Jr., the presumptive long-term answer after taking over for Kirk Cousins in 2024, is still working his way back from a torn ACL suffered last November and hasn’t been cleared for 11-on-11 work, so he won’t play Friday. Stefanski has been clear that no real competition can happen until Penix gets full clearance, which could take several more weeks. That leaves Tagovailoa as the de facto Week 1 favorite by default, at least for now, and Friday is his chance to show the coaching staff something in a game that actually counts for roster evaluation. Fans in the building will be able to bet legally on-site too, since Georgia’s sports betting market continues to expand around events like this one.

Beyond the quarterbacks, keep an eye on Denver’s receiver room, where Pat Bryant and Marvin Mims Jr. are competing for snaps behind Courtland Sutton and Jaylen Waddle, with Mims banged up by a leg injury that has opened a door for Bryant. Troy Franklin is also in that mix as the Broncos try to sort out their WR3 role heading into the regular season. On defense, first-round pick Jahdae Barron is still fighting for a starting cornerback job in his second summer, currently ticketed as the primary backup behind Pat Surtain and Riley Moss. For Atlanta, the running back room behind Bijan Robinson remains a strength worth watching early, and the offensive and defensive lines will get a long look as Stefanski fills out the back of his roster.

Prediction and Best Bet

With both teams sitting their true starting quarterbacks (Nix entirely, Penix due to injury) and neither club needing to win a game that carries zero standings implications, this one is likely to be decided by which group of backups executes cleaner rather than which team has more top-end talent. Denver’s QB2/QB3 battle between Stidham and Ehlinger figures to produce a more stable, structured performance given how much continuity the Broncos have across their coaching staff and system, while Atlanta is leaning on a patchwork quarterback rotation of Tagovailoa, Rush, and an undrafted rookie. That points to a slight edge for Denver’s offense finding a rhythm, even in a game where starters play a half at most.

• Prediction: Denver Broncos 20, Atlanta Falcons 16
• Best Bet: Broncos on the spread

Mon, Sep 14 • 8:15 PM	Spread	Money	Total
Denver Broncos	+2.5 (-110)	+120	O 43.5 (-108)
Kansas City Chiefs	-2.5 (-118)	-134	U 43.5 (-113)

The market’s confidence in Denver, reflected in a spread that’s been bet up from -3.5 to as high as -5.5, lines up with the practical reality on the ground: Denver has a settled QB2 competition being run by an experienced staff, while Atlanta is still figuring out who even starts the regular season under center. In a game defined by depth-chart battles rather than star power, that stability tips the scale toward the Broncos covering.