Colts vs. Patriots Prediction: Preseason Week 1 Pick and Best Bet for Thursday’s Opener at Gillette Stadium

Preseason football rarely means much for the standings, but Thursday night at Gillette Stadium doubles as an audition for two of the more compelling backup quarterback battles in the league, and that alone makes the Colts-Patriots opener worth a look on the board.

Quick take:

• Pick: Patriots +1.5
• Why: Home crowd, more continuity in the offensive script, and a defensive front that should hold up against a Colts group without its top playmakers
• The number to watch: Anthony Richardson Sr. is slated for a full half of work, his longest game action since the 2025 preseason

Indianapolis opens its preseason slate on the road against a New England team also looking to sort out its own depth chart questions before the roster gets trimmed. Colts head coach Shane Steichen has already said a “slew” of starters will sit Thursday, with Daniel Jones held out entirely as the team protects him ahead of the regular season. That decision hands the keys to Anthony Richardson Sr., who will start and play the whole first half, with Riley Leonard taking over after the break as the two continue jockeying for the No. 2 quarterback job behind Jones.

New England is dealing with a similar approach. Mike Vrabel has indicated Drake Maye won’t play, and neither will most of the Patriots’ established starters, including receiver A.J. Brown and cornerback Christian Gonzalez. That leaves the bulk of Thursday’s snaps to a mix of second-year players, rookies and roster-bubble veterans on both sides trying to make a real impression before final cuts.

Why This Line Is Softer Than It Looks

Books have Indianapolis anywhere from 1.5 to 2.5-point favorites in most markets, with the Colts’ moneyline sitting between -125 and -150 and the Patriots priced out to +105 to +125. The total is bouncing between 36.5 and 38.5. None of those numbers should be treated with much confidence — preseason lines are built on thin information, especially in Week 1 when coaches are still finalizing who plays how many series. A backup-heavy Colts offense facing a New England defense that’s mostly reserves themselves is about as murky a matchup as the board offers all year.

The Battles That Actually Matter Thursday

For Indianapolis, all eyes are on the Richardson-Leonard competition. Richardson gets the first crack, and how he handles a clean pocket and full read progressions over an entire half will tell the coaching staff plenty about where the QB2 race stands. Leonard flips into the starting role next week against Atlanta, giving both passers a genuine head-to-head sample before the third preseason game. Beyond quarterback, the Colts have a real scrap at wide receiver, where veteran Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has started closing the gap on presumed WR3 favorite Ashton Dulin, and a kicking competition between Blake Grupe and Spencer Shrader that special teams coordinator Brian Mason wants settled through equal opportunity rather than a hunch.

New England’s version of that story runs through its receiver room. With A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs sitting, second-year players Kyle Williams and Efton Chism III should see extended run behind the projected top of the depth chart, giving the coaching staff a longer look at whether either can be trusted for a bigger role once the games count. The Patriots also have an interesting backfield situation, where Terrell Jennings’ return from the non-football injury list has reportedly given him an edge over Lan Larison and seventh-round pick Jam Miller for the RB3 job, while newly signed veteran Hassan Haskins adds another body to a crowded competition.

Richardson hasn’t played a full half of preseason football since 2025.

That’s the single biggest swing factor here. A clean, mistake-free half from Richardson would be a meaningful data point for Indianapolis, while any shakiness reopens the door for Leonard to seize the lead in that race. On the other side of the ball, New England’s offensive line depth — with Caleb Lomu and Marcus Bryant rotating in behind Will Campbell and Morgan Moses — will be tested by an Indianapolis pass rush trying to make its own roster case, led by names like Jaylahn Tuimoloau and Caden Curry working for snaps behind the projected starting front.

Neither team’s game plan is built around style points. Both coaching staffs have made clear this is about evaluation, not execution, which tends to produce sloppier, more unpredictable preseason football than the raw talent gap between these two rosters would suggest.

Prediction and Best Bet

New England’s practice-squad-heavy defensive front should be stout enough at home to slow down a Colts offense that’s without Jonathan Taylor and Daniel Jones for extended stretches, and the crowd advantage in Foxborough tips a razor-thin spread. Expect a low-scoring, mistake-filled affair that comes down to which backup quarterback settles in first.

Sun, Sep 20 • 8:20 PM	Spread	Money	Total
Indianapolis Colts	+7 (-117)	+265	O 47 (-107)
Kansas City Chiefs	-7 (-105)	-285	U 46.5 (-110)

The pick:

1. Prediction: Patriots 20, Colts 17
2. Best Bet: Patriots +1.5

Preseason football is an imperfect science, but the extra half-point of home cushion is enough value to side with New England in what should be a tight, sloppy exhibition. For bettors looking to shop lines before kickoff, checking a DraftKings promo code is worth doing given how much these preseason numbers can move between books.