Super Bowl LXI Winner Odds: Rams Break Away From the Pack After Myles Garrett Trade
The Los Angeles Rams have separated as the +550 favorite to win Super Bowl LXI after acquiring Myles Garrett, with the Bills, Ravens and Seahawks forming the next tier.
The Los Angeles Rams have separated from the pack as the +550 favorite to win Super Bowl LXI, and the blockbuster trade for Myles Garrett is the biggest reason why.
Quick take:
- Pick: Los Angeles Rams +550
- Why: They’re the only team in single digits, pairing reigning MVP Matthew Stafford with a defense that now features a two-time Defensive Player of the Year.
- The number to watch: 23.0 — Myles Garrett’s NFL single-season sack record from 2025, now aimed at NFC offenses twice a year.
Sportsbooks had the Rams sitting around +800 to +900 back in February, running mate with the Seattle Seahawks atop an unusually flat board. That changed in June when Los Angeles sent Jared Verse, a 2027 first-round pick, a 2028 second-rounder and a 2029 third-rounder to Cleveland for Garrett, instantly reshaping the championship market. DraftKings, FanDuel and Caesars all now list the Rams shorter than +600, with the rest of the league bunched into a much wider second tier.
How the Board Moved After the Garrett Trade
The Rams’ price dropped from +800 to +550 the moment the Garrett deal was finalized, and it’s held there through the summer as the only team in the league priced under 10-1. General manager Les Snead and head coach Sean McVay didn’t stop there — Los Angeles also flipped a 2026 first-round pick and additional draft capital to Kansas City for cornerback Trent McDuffie before extending him for four years and $124 million, then re-signed Stafford to a new deal worth $55 million in new money. The result: Los Angeles opens the year with the reigning NFL MVP, the league’s receptions leader in Puka Nacua, and now a Defensive Player of the Year rushing the passer behind an already stout front.
Top Contenders
| Team | Odds | Key Factor |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | +550 | Added Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie to a Stafford-led offense |
| Buffalo Bills | +1000 | Josh Allen still the engine of one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses |
| Baltimore Ravens | +1000 | Lamar Jackson and a defense built to grind out AFC playoff runs |
| Seattle Seahawks | +1100 | Defending champions looking for a repeat behind a battle-tested roster |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +1600 | Patrick Mahomes’ new contract signals another all-in championship push |
Why Vegas Trusts the Rams Over the Field
The math backs up the market reaction. Los Angeles led the NFL in scoring offense at 30.5 points per game in 2025, with Stafford throwing for an NFL-best 4,707 yards and 46 touchdowns. Davante Adams led the league in receiving touchdowns, and Nacua topped it in catches. Layering Garrett’s record-setting pass rush onto that mix — alongside a defensive front that already included Byron Young, Kobie Turner and Braden Fiske — gives Los Angeles a case as the most complete roster in the league heading into camp. It’s a similar all-in blueprint to the one that landed Stafford in 2021 and ended with a Super Bowl parade down the same SoFi Stadium tunnel this year’s game will be played in.
The Rams are the only team in the entire league priced shorter than 10-1 to win Super Bowl LXI.
That gap matters. Buffalo and Baltimore remain the top challengers from the AFC, both hovering around +1000, with Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson representing the two best quarterback-driven cases against the Rams’ depth. Seattle, fresh off its own title run, sits at +1100 as a live repeat candidate. But none of them have made a move this offseason that reshaped the board the way the Garrett trade did.
Kansas City’s price tells its own story. The Chiefs sit at +1600 — respectable, but a signal that the market isn’t fully convinced this is still the AFC’s best roster, even with Mahomes locked in long-term.
It’s worth noting how unusual this level of separation is this early in an NFL offseason. Super Bowl boards are typically flat through the summer, with four or five teams bunched inside a few hundred points of each other and no true standalone favorite emerging until injuries and roster news start piling up in the fall. The Rams breaking away to +550 by July, with the next-closest team sitting at double digits, reflects just how aggressively Los Angeles reshaped its roster in a single offseason rather than any single dominant performance carrying over from last year.
The AFC picture is muddier by comparison. Buffalo and Baltimore have essentially traded the top spot back and forth for two years running, and neither team made an offseason move on the scale of the Rams-Garrett trade. Buffalo’s staying power comes down to continuity — Allen has had largely the same core around him, and the Bills’ identity as a top-tier AFC threat hasn’t wavered. Baltimore’s case rests on Jackson’s ceiling and a defense that has quietly been one of the more efficient units in the league even in years the Ravens didn’t make a deep run.
The Best Bet
The value case still leans toward the favorite, even at a shorter price than bettors are used to seeing this early in the cycle.
- Pick: Los Angeles Rams +550
- Value alternative: Buffalo Bills +1000
Paying up for the Rams at plus-money is still the sharper long-term play than chasing a flatter, more crowded field — Los Angeles simply has more paths to 17 wins than anyone else on the board. Bettors looking to build out a futures ticket around this market can compare live pricing through the DraftKings Promo Code before locking in a number.