Tonight's showdown in Texas should be fun! Stroud and the Texans look to keep pace and increase their lead in the AFC South as the Cowboys continue to search for answers.
Theoretically, this should be Texans all day, but we know how the NFL can be sometimes, and these bad teams can pull wins out of anywhere. I expect Stroud to move the ball on this defense as the Cowboys have been outscored at home the last 2 games 47-9 and 34-6, no matter who is on the field.
Nico Collins has cashed this line in all 5 games this season, with 4 of the 5 going over 80+ receiving yards. He has also cashed this in his last 9 of 10, and the one he missed he ended on 68. In those 5 games he has averaged 9 targets, hitting double digit targets in 3 of those games.
On the road, over their last 4 games together, Stroud has thrown an average of 9.25 targets to Collins. Cowboys have allowed 8 WR to cash this line against them, and in their 4 home games, 3 of them allowed at least 1 WR to go over this mark. The one that did not was the Ravens when Henry rushed for 151 and 2 touchdowns.
Mixon has been a fantastic addition to the Texans offense. He has 5 games of over 100 rushing yards and 5 games of over 16 receiving yards. He has been tough for teams to game plan for and the Texans use him very strategically. With Parsons back in the mix, I do expect him to get after it a bit, forcing some quicker throws from Stroud tonight.
With quicker looks, I expect Mixon to be one of the beneficiaries of that. Mixon averages 3.4 targets per game, along with 2.3 receptions and 1-2 is all Mixon should need to find this line. He has hit over 20+ longest receptions twice and hit 11 in 3 other games.
If he can find 2 receptions, he has a very good chance here as Dallas has allowed 8 RB to cover this line. At the time of writing this, he had receiving yards lines of 18.5 and 19.5 on other books, if this doesn’t scream +EV, I don’t know what does!
My Best Bets (2):
Nico Collins (Hou) 70+ Rec Yds (-120) FanDuel
Joe Mixon (Hou) o15.5 Rec Yds (-115) Fanatics