Boy, do we have a fantastic matchup on Monday Night Football? We also have two teams with their stars in relatively good shape.
Stafford and his weapons vs Tua and his weapons are going to be a fun chess match to watch tonight. I expect both defenses to come to play, but we should get some fireworks in this game!
It's no secret I am a huge anytime touchdown fan. It's also sad as the season goes on, our top targets usually lose value with their odds increasing, pushing me to play 2-legs. I have put together a 2-leg I really like for this matchup, with data to back the picks.
Kyren Williams has been a top target every week to score, which he has in 7 of his 8 games this season. The one he didn’t score was last game, which puts us in a perfect spot for a bounce back.
They love to feed him, he averages 4.2 red zone rushing attempts per game, 5.5 at home. Miami has allowed the 3rd most rushing touchdowns, and they sit 27th allowing 1.25 per game.
Tyreek Hill could be risky to wager on in this spot, but I love the data. With Tua behind center, Hill has cashed 60+ receiving yards in 26 of their last 30 games, and 16 of their last 17!
One thing the Rams have not been good at this year, stopping explosive plays. They rank dead last in yards per completion allowed, 26th in pass yards per attempt allowed, and have the 25th worst sack rate.
I do expect the Dolphins to run the ball here, but they will take their shots, and Hill should have 3-4 good looks at taking one for good distance.
Any chance I get to back DeVon Achane, I do it. I fell in love with his play-making ability last year and it has carried over this year, especially with Tua. When Tua plays, everyone is more explosive. With Tua, he has scored in every game this season, 4 out of 4.
Achane has also led the team in rushing attempts and yards for most of this season, and he is Tua’s top target out of the backfield. In those 4 games, Achane has averaged 7.5 targets, hitting 7 in each game. He can score on the ground or in the air and I love backing that combination.
My Best Bets:
2-Leg Parlay (+118) FanDuel:
K. Williams (LAR) Anytime TD + T. Hill (MIA) 60+ Rec Yds
Top Player Prop: D. Achane (MIA) Anytime TD (-120) DraftKings