Need an extra best bet for NFL Week 10? You've come to the right place! Our industry expert has a full breakdown of Bills vs. Colts below. Best of luck with your wagers this week!
Oddsmakers made this line Buffalo -2.5 during the summer months, but that had shifted to Buffalo -3.5 on last week's look-ahead line. Some additional money came in on the Bills after the Colts looked pretty rough on Sunday Night Football against the Vikings. The current line is Buffalo -4 at most online sportsbooks.
Strangely enough, there's been no line movement at all on the total. Most shops opened this number at 48 and that's where we still sit at the time of this writing. Neither team ranks high in time of possession, so the Over could be worth some consideration.
Josh Allen and the Bills have been on a massive winning streak since dropping a tough game to the Texans back in early October. Buffalo has won 4 in a row, and they just keep finding ways to win. The Bills didn't play that great against the Dolphins last week, but Tyler Bass bailed them out by drilling a game-winning 61-yard field goal as time expired.
Allen continues to be one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL, as he's thrown for 2,001 yards and 17 touchdowns this season. What's even more impressive is that he's only thrown 2 interceptions. Buffalo likes to lean heavily on its running game to take some of the pressure off of Allen.
The Bills defense plays the pass incredibly well, as they rank a respectable 8th in yards per pass allowed. However, they tend to have a hard time against teams that like to pound the rock. Buffalo allows 4.8 yards per carry, which ranks just 26th in the league.
The Colts decided to bench Anthony Richardson in favor of the veteran Joe Flacco. While most experts agree that it was the right call, Flacco didn't look so good against the stingy Vikings defense last week. However, I'm expecting a big bounce back game from him this week.
Indy has dealt with lots of injuries this season, but Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman are getting closer to being back at 100% health. Pittman didn't practice Wednesday, but I highly doubt he will miss this week's game. Taylor still leads the team in rushing and should be able to do some damage against this Buffalo defensive line.
The Colts' defense has been a bit underwhelming this season. They rank just 24th in third down conversion rate allowed and just 26th in yards per pass allowed. The good news is that Indy is getting healthier on that side of the ball, so those metrics should improve pretty soon.
I'm never in love with the idea of fading Josh Allen, but this spot sits up pretty well for the Colts. It's a great 'buy low' point on Indy after an embarrassing performance on national TV last week. Shane Steichen should have a much better game plan this week against Buffalo.
Meanwhile, this is a fantastic opportunity to sell the Bills at a high. They've won 4 straight, but they could be peeking ahead to next week's battle with the Chiefs. Give me the 4 points with the better rushing team that's played the much tougher schedule (IND SOS: 8th - BUF SOS: 20th).