It was a rough Week 9 for our NFL Anytime Touchdown props. Our staff posted a collective 2-4 mark to run our season record to 16-20 for a total loss of 1.11 units. It's time to shake it off and move on to Week 10!
PHI at DAL - 4:25 PM EDT
I'm taking Jalen Hurts anytime TD this week at +120 on BET365. The Eagles like to score fast and often. With the Cowboys' defense being almost dead last in every statistical category, specifically TDs allowed and Red Zone defense, this creates a storm for them that they won't be able to handle.
A ton of focus will be on the dominant Saquon Barkley, of course, which will take a lot of eyes off of Jalen. Jalen Hurts will very likely be able to stroll into the end zone via the read option or even the good old tush push! The Eagles also love to run. Hurts has 86 carries, 322 yards, and 8 rushing TDs, so I like our chances in this spot!
DEN at KC - 1:00 PM EDT
Mahomes finally has his receiver. Despite being undefeated, KC has not had great luck with their skill positions this year. However, things might be changing with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins. So far, the results on D Hopkins have been mixed, but if the last game was anything to go by, he might be the difference maker this offense needs.
Not only did he score two touchdowns last week, Hopkins opened up the field in a way we haven’t seen from the Chiefs this year. Travis Kelce had his two best games of the season with Hopkins on the field, as the eyes downfield have begun to shift towards Hopkins. Even with Hopkins on the back end of his career, he’s still out here making plays.
We expect him to be Mahomes' lead target in the red zone, giving him excellent value, at +180 for an all-time TD this week. Even facing off against the Broncos, who have been outstanding against the pass, Hopkins has an excellent chance to reel one in!
MIA at LAR - 8:15 PM EDT (MONDAY)
De'Von Achane is my pick for an anytime touchdown this week as he will suit up against a Rams team that ranks 24th in rushing yards against per game.
While I like this, I think he takes it a step further. His role in both the rushing and receiving games makes him a dual threat that defenses struggle to contain every week.
Achane has been highly productive so far this year as he’s seeing consistent usage with double-digit carries in nearly every game and averaging over 8 targets per game in his last two appearances. That’s what I look for in an anytime TD scorer — can they rack up receptions and rushes?
He can break through on the ground or through the air, which gives him multiple paths to the end zone and ultimately more shots at locking one in.
As Miami’s go-to back, Achane’s high volume and ability to take advantage of different defensive gaps make him my top pick to score on Monday night.
MIN at JAX - 1:00 PM EDT
JJetta is on fire this year. Averaging well over 16 yards per catch, the former 1st round pick has been doing his typical damage to opposing secondaries.
This week against the Jags will be no different. Jacksonville is giving up the most TDs to WRs in the NFL right now. Expect JJ to add to that total.
DET at HOU - 8:20 PM EDT
This Lions team has been on a major roll, as they've won 6 straight after a weird Week 2 loss to the Bucs. As much as I wanted to choose either David Montgomery or Jahmyr Gibbs in this spot, I wasn't crazy about laying -145 with either one.
My search for plus money ended when I saw St. Brown at this extremely attractive price. FanDuel is offering up 23 cents better than the consensus line of +112. That's the type of value I can get behind!
Houston's secondary is pretty stout, but I expect DeMeco Ryans to stack the box to try and stop Detroit's running game. That should leave lots of open real estate for St. Brown to roam. Give me that +135!
SF at TB - 1:00 PM EDT
I'm rolling with Mr. Otton to get me to the pay window this week for a variety of reasons. The Bucs proved on Monday Night Football against the Chiefs that they aren't going to lay down just because their top two wideouts are hurt.
Baker Mayfield is playing some solid ball even without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. He's found a new favorite go-to guy in Cade Otton, who has earned 31 targets over the last 3 weeks. San Fran defends the tight end pretty decently, but I like Otton quite a bit this week!
DET at HOU - 8:20 PM EDT
Maybe you haven't noticed, but the Detroit Lions offense does what it wants, when it wants, and I'm betting they want to get Jameson Williams back on track. You've probably heard this stat by now, but it bears repeating... The Lions have 25 touchdowns and only 20 incompletions in the last 5 weeks.
Williams found the end zone in 2 of his 3 games before the suspension, indicating this his +260 anytime TD odds are quite generous. He isn't a high-volume red zone guy, but we're banking on a long touchdown this week.
The Texans have allowed the 5th most receiving yards and the most receiving touchdowns in the NFL over the past 4 weeks. They've allowed 13 YPR and 7 YPA over that stretch, and we're betting Ben Johnson finds a way to dial up a few big plays in Jamo's return.