The NFL is back for another edition of Thursday night football and surprise, we get a fifth, yes that is correct, fifth prime-time game for Aaron Rodgers and the hapless Jets. What did we football fans do to deserve this; I will never know!
All jokes aside, is this the week the Jets finally get back on track? I think they have a good shot tonight, but I have 2 parlays below that I absolutely love!
As I dove into the numbers, man this Houston Texas defense has been impressive. They have held 5 of the 8 QB they have faced under 181 passing yards, have allowed the 5th least completions, while also sitting 3rd in the NFL in sacks. This won’t be an easy test, especially for a struggling Jets, but I think this duo can put together a few nice plays.
With the high-pressure rate, surely the Jets will look to establish the run, and short to intermediate routes, where Tyler Conklin can dominate. Tough to say any TE will dominate against a Texans squad that has been one of the best against opposing tight ends.
Rodgers has 1+ Pass touchdowns in 7/8 games this season. In prime-time games, Rodgers has 1+ Pass TDs in 15/L17 (88%), 9/L10 and 4/4 this season. It's still insane to think the Jets have had 4 primetime games in 8 weeks. Houston, on defense, has allowed 1+ pass TDs in 7/8 games and 2+ in 5/8 (Rodgers +120 for 2 pass TDs isn't a terrible look).
Tyler Conklin over his last 6 games has 34 Targets and 24 Receptions. Conklin has 3+ receptions in 5 of those 6 games and Conklin has cashed this vs 5 pretty tough defenses in Denver, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, and New England twice over that span.
Now while some may think it's crazy to target two Tight Ends against two defenses that do very well against opposing tight ends, but it is what I am doing! With major injuries to Diggs and Collins still awaiting a return, Stroud doesn’t have many options left besides looking for Dalton Schultz.
Perhaps it will be easier to game plan with less firepower on the outside, but I think the TE will play key roles in tonight's game given what both defenses are able to do. Both defenses should look to eliminate deep-threat long balls and keep everything in front of them. Limiting explosive plays in the NFL is key almost every week and these 2 defenses have the ability and playmakers to limit those explosives.
When teams focus on limiting explosives and keeping plays in front of them, it usually opens up the intermediate routes and opens targets up over the middle of the field where Dalton Schultz and Tyler Conklin can thrive.
Schultz has been a key target for Stroud over the last 5 games and without Diggs, I think he gets even a little more attention. He has cashed 25+ receiving yards in 5 straight games with a current line over 40+.
Now while Conklin has only cashed this in 3/L6 games he is still getting attention from Rodgers, and he should get another 4-6 targets this game. 4 TE have reached this line vs Houston and if he can get 3-4 receptions on those targets, he has a good shot to find 25+ on this defense.
My Best Bets:
2-Leg Parlay (+100) Bet365
Rodgers (NYJ) 1+ Pass TD + Tyler Conklin (NYJ) o2.5 Receptions
2-Leg Parlay (Boosted to +183) FanDuel
Tyler Conklin (NYJ) 25+ Rec Yds + Dalton Schultz (HOU) 25+ Rec Yds