The (3-3) Dallas Cowboys travel to Santa Clara to take on the (3-4) San Francisco 49ers in a game both teams desperately need to win. Coming into the season, these were two of the betting favorites in the NFC, yet both teams currently sit outside of the playoff picture.
The Cowboys are coming off of their bye week, while the 49ers will get their bye next week. This is important because there are a ton of injuries up and down the rosters of each of these teams.
Looking at the odds, the 49ers are currently a 4-point favorite with a total of 47 points. We've analyzed all of the player props available for this Sunday Night Football matchup and have identified our 4 best bets.
When looking for running back props, one of my favorite stats to consider is yards gained before contact vs yards before contact allowed. In this case, the 49ers offense is 2nd in the NFL at 1.74 YBC, while the Cowboys defense is 30th in the NFL allowing 1.51 YBC.
Working through a should injury, Mason has only 23 carries over his last 2 games, but averaged nearly 6 YPC over that stretch. With a bye week next week and Christian McCaffrey set to return in week 10, we think he'll get a full workload here and cruises past 76.5 yards.
I don't give out a ton of overs, but this one is an absolute hammer. I'd even consider betting Mason's alt rushing yards prop up to 90+ at +150 odds.
This matchup is obviously rough for Dak. San Francisco was the #1 pass defense in the NFL last season and is top 5 in most categories this year. Combine that with the fact that he's been held under this number in 3 out of 6 games already this season, and we have to fire on the under here.
Combine that with a game script that could find the Cowboys offense watching the 49ers offense run all over their defense, and we doubt Dak even has enough possessions to threaten this passing yards prop.
This number is currently available at FanDuel, while the several other books have already dropped it to 243 or lower.
This number is simply too high. Brown has only gone over 6.5 tackles in 2 out 7 games this season and doesn't have more than 8 tackles in a game. It's also worth noting that the Cowboys run the ball at the second-lowest rate in the NFL (34% of plays). This should mean even fewer opportunities for Brown to get on the stat sheet.
I hate giving out props with this much juice, but this is a number that is just too good to pass up.
The 49ers will be without Jauan Jennings and Brandon Aiyuk, if Deebo (pneumonia) plays he will almost certainly be limited, which should result in a big George Kittle game.
Dallas has done a solid job against tight ends this season, but is allowing a 72% completion percentage to the position and gave up a 52 yard touchdown to Sam Laporta in week 6.
Kittle has gone over 54.5 receiving yards in 3 straight games, 4 of 6 games overall, and is averaging over 63 YPG on the season. This is one of those numbers that should continue to climb higher as the game approaches so lock it in quick.