Monday Night Football brings a massive AFC East showdown as the Buffalo Bills (3-2) face off against the New York Jets (2-3) at MetLife Stadium.
With both teams coming off dismal Week 5 losses, this matchup carries a bit more weight, especially with the Jets making big changes after firing Robert Saleh as head coach.
Defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich steps in as interim head coach, while Todd Downing takes over the offensive play-calling duties. It’s a wild change, but it also affects how the odds and the picks will roll out for this MNF matchup.
With a win, either team can leap to first place in the division, adding a bit more drama to this prime-time game. Let’s add even more by loading up your bet slip.
The Bills are favored by 1 point after the line opened at -3, and they've stayed slight favorites ever since. They also have a -120 moneyline putting them just ahead of the Jets.
Meanwhile, the Jets are +100 underdogs. The over/under is set at 41.5 points, showing the bookmakers favoring a balanced, potentially defensive matchup.
When we were researching this game and comparing the odds, we found there were a few prop bets we liked as well. These are a few big ones you might want to keep your eye on—
Josh Allen: Over/Under 199.5 passing yards
Aaron Rodgers: Over/Under 224.5 passing yards
James Cook: Over/Under 59.5 rushing yards
Breece Hall: Over/Under 49.5 rushing yards
The Jets have had a rough start to the season. There’s no doubting that.
But there's optimism about a potential "coach-firing bump," with Jeff Ulbrich taking the reins.
However, the bigger change could come from Todd Downing’s adjustments to the offense. We could see a more simplified game plan, with a heavier reliance on the run game and check-downs from Aaron Rodgers, especially with the Bills' defense favoring deep-zone coverages that leave the middle open. This will be a pretty sizable departure from Rodgers's playing style, but anything is possible with this massive shakeup on the sidelines.
Rodgers, though not the explosive MVP of years past, has been reliable, throwing for 1,093 yards and 7 touchdowns this season. His favorite target, Garrett Wilson, has been a huge push for the offense, already tallying 33 receptions for 292 yards. Wilson’s ability to find the open space and make defenders miss will be crucial, particularly with a shaky offensive line in front of Rodgers. He’ll have to find all of this and more under repeated fire.
New York’s defense, despite their struggles, we still feel they have the talent to create issues for the Bills' offense. The Jets need to contain Josh Allen and force him into mistakes, something Houston was able to do last week.
The Bills are coming off a shocking loss to the Houston Texans. Nobody really saw that coming. Allen was pressured and held to under 220 passing yards.
But, we also think there’s a good reason to expect a rebound from Buffalo here.
Allen has been a dynamic threat, using both his arm and legs, with 8 passing touchdowns and a 77.6 QBR, which leads the league. He also has a 17.1 PAA, which is 3rd in the entire NFL. He can take advantage of a Jets defense that has been inconsistent and allowed too many points in recent weeks.
Buffalo’s running back James Cook is listed as questionable (foot/toe), but if he plays, he’ll be an important weapon both on the ground and in the passing game. Cook has racked up 309 rushing yards and adds a little more versatility with his receiving skills, which could be helpful against a defense trying to adjust to a new playcaller.
The Bills' defense, on the other hand, has done well limiting opposing quarterbacks but has shown a soft spot in giving up receptions to running backs. This might give the Jets an opportunity to lean on Breece Hall out of the backfield, especially with checkdowns as Rodgers looks to get the ball out quickly.
This game should be tightly contested. With both teams needing a win to stay in the AFC East race, we think it’ll be closer than most expect.
While the Jets could see an early spark with their new coaching staff, Buffalo’s overall firepower and Allen’s dual-threat ability give them the edge. The Jets' offensive issues, especially with a shaky offensive line, will make it difficult for them to keep up if Allen finds his rhythm.
Best Bet: Buffalo Bills -1
The Bills should have no problem covering the 1-point spread, especially with their QB play and the Jets still working out their offensive kinks. We expect a relatively low-scoring game, so leaning toward the Under 41.5 could also be a smart play, but Buffalo to win and cover feels like the more confident pick.
Final score prediction: Bills 23, Jets 17
Head over to your favorite sportsbook and load up your bet slip. With these Bills vs. Jets predictions, you’re going to have to take the check to the bank.