While the Titans and Dolphins will be playing to a low score on MNF, Geno Smith vs. Jared Goff is a match made in heaven for a shootout at Ford Field. Also, keep your eye on Jaxon Smith-Njigba to have another wonderful performance and continue an odd trend.
TOTAL: UNDER 37 Points
DeVon Achane: OVER 25 Rec Yards
Tyreek Hill: OVER Alt 35.5 Rec Yards
We are playing the Titans vs Dolphins MNF game safely by sticking with proven numbers. First of all, Tyler Huntley is starting at QB for the injury-riddled Dolphins. This is extremely good news for “under” bettors as Huntley is 8-1 on unders when starting.
Last season, he played a solid game against the Steelers in a 10-17 loss during the final week of the season where he threw for 146 yards and a score. With Huntley’s rushing ability as well, look for the ‘Fins to milk clock and keep Will Levis as cold as possible on the other side of the football.
As for DeVon Achane, the Dolphins running back has struggled to replicate similar output to his rookie season behind an offensive line that has been an uninspired group thus far. Achane has averaged 3.5 YPC opposed to his 7.7 YPC during his rookie season.
Without Tua, teams are stacking the box and daring Achane to run up the gut - which has not panned out. With that being said, Achane has made up for his lackluster rushing stats through the air. He has totaled 173 receiving yards to his 150 rushing yards through 3 games, serving as a screen-target or check down back in most situations.
In this game against Tennessee, expect some creativity to get Achane in space and with his elite speed, he could pick up this 25 yard number in one go.
Similar to Achane, Tyreek Hill hasn’t found a groove post Tua injury. Hill has only caught 6 passes for 64 yards the last two weeks and came into Week 4 outside of the top-tier WR group in fantasy for the first time in a long time. With that being said, Tyler Huntley is good enough to find Hill for a few chunk plays.
In Baltimore, he was able to connect with Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely among others when the Ravens asked him to start during Jackson’s injury. Since 2022, he’s put together five games of 130 pass yards or more while remaining solid accuracy for a backup.
With Tyreek’s speed against this Titans defense I’m looking for a 5+ reception, 50+ yard performance but with the 35.5 yard prop, we are getting some leeway should Huntley struggle to start this game.
MONEYLINE: Lions
Geno Smith: OVER 23.5 PASS COMP
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: OVER 49.5 Rec Yards
The Lions are looking to take down the Seahawks on home turf this Monday night behind their passing game that has to get back to where it was last season. Although the Seahawks secondary has played well this season, Seattle has had to face Skylar Thompson, Jacoby Brissett, and Bo Nix as their competition.
With Jared Goff, ARSB, Laporta, Gibbs, Jameson Williams, and David Montgomery on tap for this Seattle team, I would be surprised if the Seahawks walk out of this game sitting at 4-0. After this game, I believe the Chiefs and Minnesota Vikings will be the only two undefeated teams remaining.
Geno Smith completed 32 passes in last season’s Week 2 matchup at Detroit. Heading into this game, he’s completed 26 and 33 passes in back to back games against Miami and New England. With this potent Lions offense on the other side, this might be the most no-brainer bet of the week as Seattle will have to match the scoreboard in order to win this potential shootout.
The Lions know they need more big plays compared to last week. The Seahawks know they need more big plays compared to their last week. It’s a match made in heaven for Geno Smith and Jared Goff prop bets.
JSN had a quiet Week 3 against Miami but in Week 2 had a career game putting up 12 catches on 16 targets for 117 yards. Oddly enough, in his career, Njigba plays much better on the road catching 5.3 passes per game compared to just 2.7 at home.
Furthermore, he’s averaging 47 YPG on the road and just 33.4 YPG at home. While he hasn’t scored a touchdown on the road, Geno Smith trusts in JSN to get into the right spots in away games and due to this stat, we are riding with the “sophomore wideout” on this SGP.