The Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) face off against the Los Angeles Chargers (2-1) this Sunday in a massive AFC West matchup.
The Chiefs are riding high after a road win against the Falcons, while the Chargers look to rebound from their first loss of the season against the Steelers.
Here’s a total breakdown of the game and the best betting insights.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been impressive so far. They have a perfect record and are not looking to slow down anytime soon.
They’ve won close games, like the 26-25 nail-biter against the Bengals, and handled their road game at Atlanta efficiently, winning 22-17.
Patrick Mahomes has been good but not yet spectacular like we’ve seen in the past. He has just 659 passing yards and a 5:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. For Mahomes, the numbers are modest, especially with only one game over 218 passing yards. Those might be stellar numbers for any other QB.
Kansas City’s offense has seen Rashee Rice emerge as a major player in the passing game. He’s already racked up 288 receiving yards and seems to be coming out dominant.
The team, however, has suffered a setback with Isaac Pacheco on IR, leaving Carson Steeler to take over the bulk of the running back duties.
The defense has been shaky at times, particularly in pass coverage, where they rank a terrible 28th in the league. That said, they’ve held opponents to an average of 20.7 points per game, which ranks them in the middle of the pack at 16th.
This defense has bent but not broken, allowing Kansas City to come away with wins despite some tight games. If there’s a seam another team can break through it’ll undoubtedly be their defense.
After winning their first two games, the Los Angeles Chargers stumbled against the Steelers, losing 20-10. It was an ugly and sloppy loss.
The Chargers offense has not been firing on all cylinders, with Justin Herbert failing to break 150 passing yards in any of his games so far. There’s concern around Herbert's availability due to an ankle injury suffered last week, leaving him questionable for Sunday.
If Herbert can’t go, Taylor Heinicke will step in. Heinicke is a capable backup, but he doesn’t bring the same upside which doesn’t say much.
The Chargers have leaned heavily on their run game. J.K. Dobbins, who has accumulated 310 rushing yards through three games, has done the heavy lifting on the ground.
However, Dobbins was shut down by Pittsburgh, held to just 2.9 yards per carry. If Herbert doesn’t play, expect even more emphasis on Dobbins. If the KC defense shuts down the run, we’re looking at a very low-scoring game.
The Chargers defense has been the cornerstone of their season, allowing just 11 points per game, good for 3rd-best in the league. Joey Bosa and Derwin James are key playmakers, but both could be absent this Sunday, with Bosa questionable and James suspended.
Still, the unit ranks 10th in pass defense and 6th in rushing defense, giving them a solid chance to frustrate Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense.
Spread: Chiefs -7
Over/Under: 45.5
The spread highlights Kansas City’s status as the favorites, but the seven-point line might be tough to cover.
Kansas City has played tight games, and their shaky pass defense could give the Chargers a window to keep things close, especially if Herbert is able to play or if Heinicke figures out how to light up the sky.
This game comes down to health and defense.
If Justin Herbert is active, the Chargers' defense will be well-positioned to slow down Mahomes and company even if Heinicke steps in, Los Angeles can lean on their run game to control the clock. The Chiefs have not blown teams out, with three close games so far, and their pass defense (ranked 28th) is a concern against a Chargers team capable of big plays.
While Kansas City should ultimately win this game at home, covering a seven-point spread feels just a bit ambitious given how close their games have been up to this point.
The best bet here is Los Angeles +7. With the Chargers boasting the better defense and Kansas City’s inconsistency in blowing teams out, Los Angeles should keep this one tight.
Best Bet: Los Angeles Chargers +7
Runner-Up Best Bet: Under 45.5
BettorsInsider Prediction: Kansas City 24, Los Angeles 20