Good afternoon football fans! The NFL season is quickly approaching, just 3 weeks away from game 1 when we open the season with Baltimore at Kansas City.
I know most of you are excited for the season to get back and I took a deep dive into some player prop futures that I am loving for this season! My approach may be different than some looking for longer odds payouts, but I am looking for plays I'm confident in hitting.
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Trusting The Aging Vet Mike Evans
Look, the odds on this future are nothing to jump out of your seat about, but this is an odd line, and I am simply going to take advantage of it. Is there risk with a soon to be 31 year old, 10 year NFL vet? Sure! However, this line has been a slam dunk all 10 of his seasons and I don’t see that changing.
The Bucs just re-signed Baker to a lucrative deal, which tells me they won’t be going away from the passing game. They do have a new coordinator and added Jalen McMillan, who I do see stealing some receptions this season. If Baker throws it north of 525 passing attempts while completing around 64% again, there is no reason Evans doesn’t pass this mark again.
FanDuel is offering 64.5, while DraftKings is offering 68.5, and while I prefer the odds on 68.5, 64.5 is too good to pass up. Evans has covered 64.5 in all 10 seasons, his lowest total being 67.
Daniels Over Williams?
This may come as a shocker to some, others maybe not. Caleb Williams is expected to have a good season and has an abundance of talent at his disposal. What I see are two teams in slightly different trajectories with different styles of play. Sure Williams will get his fair share of passing attempts, but the Bears also ran the ball very well last season and I do not see that going away.
The Bears will run the ball, and I do expect Washington to lean on the run a bit more than last season. If you look at Washington, they lead the league in passing attempts with Sam Howell.
Now they turn it over to Daniels, and I project Washington will be playing from behind in a lot of games. Daniels is going to have more attempts and has solid weapons to get him those yards, at plus money.
Dalton Kincaid Will Be Josh Allen’s Life Line
Josh Allen has a glaring hole to fill this season losing 41% of his targets in Diggs and Davis. In 16 games last season, Kincaid received 91 targets and 73 receptions.
He is projected to have 83 receptions this season, knowing this is risky with Dawson Knox in the mix. Last season Kincaid averaged 4.5 receptions per game in 16 games.
I believe Kincaid can give us 16, or even 17 games this season, and with an uptick to 5 or 5.5 receptions per game, that puts us over 80 receptions. I don’t trust this new look receiving core for Allen, and I believe he will lean on his trust with Kincaid.
Reports Say Kupp Is Fully Healthy? Sign Me Up!
With Kupp healthy I am jumping on this line. Will he, or Stafford, remain healthy is the question. I do believe we get 15-16 games out of him and that should be enough. Last season, with only 12 games he amassed a 26% target share, Puka had 29%. I don’t see that shifting too much.
Rams have a very solid running game, but Stafford, if healthy, should throw for over 500 passing attempts. If he reaches 500 passing attempts, and Kupp keeps at least a 25% target share, he should end somewhere between 110 and 135 targets over 15+ games.
Kupp has a career 71% catch completion percentage, and I think this number is reachable once again! I also played Kupp to reach 1,000 receiving yards for +115, if he can reach 90+ receptions, this is in play, but his yards per reception will need to improve drastically from last season!
My Best Future Bets:
Mike Evans o64.5 Receptions (-126) FanDuel
Jayden Daniels Most Rookie Passing Yards (+190) DraftKings
Dalton Kincaid o77.5 Receptions (-112) FanDuel
Cooper Kupp o77.5 Receptions (-112) FanDuel
Long Shot Sprinkles:
Jalen Hurts MVP (+1600) FanDuel
Can he return to 2022 form, where he finished 2nd in MVP? Can the Eagles return to top of NFC East and challenge for NFC title again?
I believe the answer is yes to these. New coordinator, I'll sprinkle these odds for Hurts to get back to 2022 form, lower the interceptions while continuing to score in air and on the ground.
Aaron Rodgers MVP (+2500) FanDuel
He has a chance to lead Jets to AFC East Title and possibly challenge for a top spot with that defense. He also has a chance to tie Peyton Manning at 5 MVPs, perhaps his last chance.
He is 2 years removed from back-to-back MVP seasons. Bills, Dolphins, and Patriots could all take a small step back this season. If the Jets are in contention and he has one of those 30 TD and 5 INT seasons, this +2500 ticket will get interesting!