Though many sports bettors believe that betting on the NFL Preseason is a waste of time and money, most sharp bettors make boatloads of profit from it. The NFL Preseason is a different beast because it can be tough to figure out which teams care about the games and want to win.
That said, the NFL Preseason can be both beatable and profitable. Here are 4 tips for betting on NFLx this August! We hope these help you make a few extra units before the regular season starts on September 5.
The NFL Preseason is the only time that coaches will actually be truthful about their game plans. Certain coaches and coordinators will even tell you what they plan on working on during their next preseason game. Read the local newspapers of the teams and follow each team's beat writer on X.
Not to sound like Captain Obvious, but you'll be surprised at how much actionable info you'll find just by reading quotes from press conferences and practices. Head coaches will even tell you how much each of their quarterbacks will play, which is huge for knowing how to handicap the game.
Don't forget to look for quotes from the offensive and defensive coordinators as well. You'll often find that the coordinators are more forthcoming with game plan info than head coaches. If you read between the lines a little, you should be able to decipher which teams are taking their next preseason game more seriously and which teams are just going through the motions.
The worst teams often play exceptionally well during the preseason. How many times have we seen some of the worst teams in the league from the prior year go undefeated in the preseason? It happens year in and year out in the NFL.
The main reason for this occurrence is that there is often a new head coach in place and he wants to establish a winning culture, even if it means winning meaningless games. The players from the "bad" team are also hungry to pile up some wins, especially in front of their hometown fans.
For the 2024 NFL Preseason, it may pay to keep your eyes on teams that are coming off of bad seasons like the Patriots, Titans, Chargers, and Commanders.
This may be the most important tip of all. Certain head coaches genuinely care about winning preseason games. On the other hand, some coaches couldn't give a flying fig newton about doing well in the preseason.
Your job is to bet on the coaches with a solid preseason track record and bet against the coaches who don't seem to care about the outcome. An obvious bet-on coach would be Ravens head coach John Harbaugh, who won 24 preseason games in a row before losing to the Commanders last August. He's also something like 39-16 against the spread in his preseason coaching career.
Another solid coach to bet on during the preseason is Sean McDermott, who is the head man of the Buffalo Bills. Not including last preseason, McDermott is 12-5-1 against the spread. That's not quite as impressive as Harbaugh, but it’s still not too shabby.
In most preseason games, the starting quarterbacks rarely play more than two quarters. Some veteran QBs may even play less than a quarter, if at all. This means that you need to be familiar with the entire QB depth chart.
One nugget to look for is when a team has publicly said that the backup QB job is up for grabs. That's a great situation because you know that two or three guys will be battling it out. It also means that the coaches will want to call more passing plays to give each QB a chance to show what they can do.
For 2024, you have to pay attention to the Seattle Seahawks QB rotation. They have Geno Smith, Sam Howell, and PJ Walker on the depth chart. Though Smith probably won't play much, the other two QBs should be able to make some dynamic plays this preseason.
Just make sure that you read as many coaches' quotes as possible before betting on any team in the preseason. A good QB rotation is a great thing to bet on, but it's useless if the head coach simply wants to hand the ball off all night to work on the running game.