NFL awards are always among the most popular futures bets, and there is no award bigger than MVP. While it is not technically a QB award, a non-QB hasn't won in the past decade (Adrian Peterson 2012).
That said, it should be no surprise that the top 17 MVP favorites are all quarterbacks. The only non-QB in the top 22 is Christian McCaffrey at +4000.
Here is a look at the current NFL MVP odds from DraftKings Sportsbook:
Patrick Mahomes (+475)
C.J. Stroud (+850)
Josh Allen (+900)
Joe Burrow (+900)
Jordan Love (+1400)
Lamar Jackson (+1400)
Jalen Hurts (+1500)
Aaron Rodgers (+1600)
Brock Purdy (+1600)
Dak Prescott (+1700)
Jared Goff (+2200)
Justin Herbert (+2200)
Tua Tagovailoa (+2500)
Anthony Richardson (+3000)
Trevor Lawrence (+3000)
Matthew Stafford (+3000)
Mahomes leads the way once again with the best odds to take home the MVP trophy. If the favorite comes out on top, it would be his third NFL MVP award to coincide with his now three Super Bowl trophies. He’d be a step closer to Brady before he even turns the age of 30.
Mahomes now has his best receiving core since Tyreek Hill left for Miami, with the Chiefs drafting speedster Xavier Worthy, acquiring Hollywood Brown from the Cardinals, and continuing to bolster their offensive line for more protection.
While I’m not convinced Hollywood nor Worthy will make an instant impact in their first season in KC, Rashee Rice, Isaiah Pacheco, and Travis Kelce are a three-headed monster that could gift Mahomes his third MVP.
There isn’t a second-year QB that’s had a better situation in recent memory than C.J. Stroud of the Texans. Stroud comes off his rookie season throwing 23 TDs to just 5 interceptions, secured the Texans a playoff victory, and now has the best receiving core in the league.
Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz, Joe Mixon, and Robert Woods will be at his disposal - making the 23 TD mark in 2023 look like “rookie numbers”.
Looking ahead to this season, Houston has to be the favorite to win the South division, as Indy, Tennessee, nor Jacksonville got much better - while Demico Ryans and the Texan offense and defense look like a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
At +850, Stroud holds the second-best odds to win the award, but we will see if he takes more deep shots this season to get enough TDs and yards to keep up with the stats we see from Mahomes, Allen, and Burrow.
Lamar Jackson is looking to secure his third MVP award after winning last season. While he can’t seem to get his team past the rest of the AFC in the playoffs, Lamar is still the most prolific player at the Quarterback position, and with Derrick Henry in the backfield now, there’s a world where running lanes could open up even more for the mobile QB.
With Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews spearheading this receiving unit, Jackson finally has two reliable options to throw the ball to.
In the running game, Henry, Justice Hill, and Keaton Mitchell all play extremely different games but all have the speed alongside Lamar for this running unit to lead the league in yards, TDs, and potentially in YPC.
Combine Henry’s yards after contact with Jackson’s yards before contact and there’s a real chance Lamar can replicate his early MVP run where he has a stretch of 3-4 games that wins him the award with breakaway runs resulting in 3 or more TDs per game.
Best Bet: Lamar Jackson (+1400)
Let's turn our attention to some sleepers who are riskier bets but offer much better odds. This list starts with Matthew Stafford who, when healthy, played some of the best football of his career last season. With a healthy Nacua and Kupp, Stafford could put up monster numbers for McVay and the Rams this season.
Matthew Stafford (+3000)
Christian McCaffrey (+4000)
Kyler Murray (+5000)
Micah Parsons (+20000)
Kyler Murray is coming off three seasons where he didn’t play full seasons. Before that? K1 scored 61 TDs in his first two seasons of his career for the Cardinals, leading the team to playoff contention before the injury bug came knocking.
Heading into his sixth season, I have a feeling a new Murray has emerged - a Kyler far removed from the #1 overall pick selection, the Heisman winner, and the potential franchise saver. Murray is now pictured as a “middle of the pack” QB on a below-average team.
With that being said, Murray has an underrated offensive core of James Conner, Trey Benson, Zay Jones, Greg Dortch, Trey McBride, and #3 overall pick Marvin Harrison Jr. who looks to be the next great wideout in the National Football League. While the defense is the main concern, Coach Gannon is a defensive-minded HC and should scheme against the top NFC teams in order to give Murray and the offense a chance at some upset wins.
Last season, five of the Cards' losses came within one possession while they secured just four wins. This is one of the toughest divisions in football, but a healthy and determined Murray should be a top 10 player in the league with his rushing ability that mirrors Jackson.
Parsons received a handful of votes in 2022 and looking ahead to 2024, there’s a reason to sprinkle some money on the extreme underdog. He’s played three fully healthy seasons and year after year has put up DPOY and borderline MVP numbers on the defensive side of the football.
With 40.5 sacks and 7 forced fumbles in three seasons, Parsons should be a legitimate contender for the MVP trophy if none of the QBs this year have eye-opening numbers.
In the Cowboys' current situation with Jerry Jones running this team into the ground, the offense depleted, and the years dwindling on the number of chances this group can get at a title if Micah ends up leading this team to the postseason with 12 or more victories, 15 or more sacks, and 5 or more combined interceptions and forced fumbles, he should be getting consideration.
At +20000, why not throw some money on the best defensive player in the league?