Betting on NFL running backs can be one of the most profitable prop bets, especially when focusing on top-tier players with impressive stats and high potential. Several running backs stand out due to their past performances and expected impact in the 2024 season.
Some of these names might be expected, while other may surprise you. Here are the top 5 RBs heading into the 2024 season and why we think they’re a good bet.
Best Bet: Over 1,225.5 Rushing Yards
Christian McCaffrey of the San Francisco 49ers is considered the best running back in the NFL heading into 2024. That’s not just us saying that. Many fanatics and analysts believe it, too.
His 2023 season was nothing less than phenomenal. He led the league in rushing yards with 1,459, all-purpose scrimmage yards with 2,023, and touchdowns with 21 (actually tied for 1st with Raheem Mostert). McCaffrey’s versatility as both a runner and receiver makes him an elite talent and a go-to for various prop bets.
For total rushing yards, McCaffrey’s stellar 2023 performance makes us believe he is a strong candidate to lead the league again. Why not? He’s still young and still has all of the tools around him. Betting on him to score over 15 touchdowns also seems promising, given his remarkable ability to find the end zone time and time again.
On top of all of that, McCaffrey’s proficiency in the passing game makes him a decent candidate for the most receptions among running backs. With 88 receptions for 564 receiving yards last season, he was the top receiving back in the NFL.
He’s unstoppable and we think he’ll continue that streak into the 2024 season. He’s also a good reason the 49ers have the second best odds for the Super Bowl at +600, just behind the KC Chiefs.
Best Bet: Over 975.5 Rushing Yards
Derrick Henry, now with the Baltimore Ravens, continues to be one of the league’s most dominant power runners. Despite signing with a new team in free agency, Henry’s on-field impact is expected to remain as significant as before. In 2023, he led the league in rushing attempts with 280, and we expect the Ravens to use him just as much.
Henry accumulated 1,327 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns last season, ranking third in the NFL for both categories. His average of 4.5 yards per carry underscores his efficiency, but keep in mind that he’s a power runner. He’s all muscle and guarantees to move the line of scrimmage with every play. Given his consistent production, betting on Henry to exceed 1,200 rushing yards is a no-brainer. His dominance near the goal line also makes a prop bet on him to score over 12 touchdowns look attractive. In addition to that, due to his heavy workload, betting on Henry to lead the league in rushing attempts (again) could offer value.
You can’t go wrong with Derrick Henry. Whichever team he’s on, he’s going to produce one way or another.
Best Bet: Over 7.5 Rushing TDs
Breece Hall of the New York Jets is set for a breakout season in 2024. His rookie campaign in 2022 was impressive but was cut short by an ACL injury. He came back in 2023 and nearly topped the 1,000-yard mark. Hall’s talent, combined with an improved offensive situation with the Jets, makes him a top contender for countless prop bets.
Hall had an impressive comeback season given the limited tools of the NY Jets. He averaged 4.5 yards per attempt on the ground and 7.8 yards per attempt in the air. While we wouldn’t call him a dual threat like McCaffery as he only pulled in 591 reception yards in 2023, with Aaron Rodgers back, we might see him in a different light.
The best thing about Breece Hall is that the odds look good for you to make some moves on him. He’s not a guy that the bookmakers are looking to call an MVP, but we think you’ll see some impressive stats by the end of the season.
Best Bet: Over 6.5 Rushing TDs
Bijan Robinson of the Atlanta Falcons showed great promise in his rookie season, recording over 1,400 total scrimmage yards, which nearly 1,000 of that was on the ground. As he heads into his second year, expectations are high for Robinson to take another step forward, making him a valuable player for prop bets. Rookies with numbers like Robinson tend to have stellar sophomore years in the NFL.
In 2023, Robinson rushed for 976 yards and totaled 1,410 scrimmage yards with 8 touchdowns, averaging 4.7 yards per carry. Betting on Robinson to exceed 1,500 scrimmage yards could be a smart bet, given his dual-threat capabilities. His ability to score makes a bet on Robinson to score over 10 touchdowns this year attractive. To take that a step further, considering his continued development, betting on Robinson to be the most improved player could be valuable. He’s set to have a Pro Bowl year as we head into 2024.
Best Bet: Over 6.5 Rushing TDs
Saquon Barkley, now with the Philadelphia Eagles, remains one of the most talented running backs when healthy. His move to Philadelphia’s strong offense sets the stage for a potential career year, making him a prime candidate for prop bets.
In 2023, Barkley rushed for 962 yards and scored 6 touchdowns coming off of a career year in 2022 in which he had 1,312 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. This drop in 2023 doesn’t look like it’s an RB at the end of the line, it looks like a slight dip and we’re willing to bet that he’s hungry to get back out there and have another year like he did in 2022.
We think betting on Robinson to be over 1,000 rushing yards and over 1,500 scrimmage yards is a smart bet.
Investing in prop bets on these running backs is a strategic move if you’re looking to place some bets before the 2024 NFL season. Christian McCaffrey's dual-threat capabilities make him a solid choice for high yardage and touchdown totals. Derrick Henry's consistent power running promises significant yardage and touchdown bets, even with his new team. Breece Hall's potential breakout season with the Jets, Bijan Robinson's expected sophomore surge, and Saquon Barkley's comeback with the Eagles all make for some smart bets. Keep an eye on these players, as their performances, in our opinion, will be a worthy bet.