Any bettor will tell you that the gold standard for measuring a team's hopes for an upcoming season is their win total. With that in mind, here are the 9 NFL teams with win totals sitting below 7 games:
NE Patriots (4.5)
CAR Panthers (5.5)
DEN Broncos (5.5)
ARI Cardinals (6.5)
LV Raiders (6.5)
MIN Vikings (6.5)
NY Giants (6.5)
TEN Titans (6.5)
WAS Commanders (6.5)
We're still more than a month away from the start of the preseason, so we don't want to be too critical of any team's chances. That said, there are three rosters that clearly lack the talent to compete this season.
We aren't saying fans should give up before the season gets here, but we wouldn't hold off on planning a ski trip this January because you think your team may be in the midst of a playoff run.
This will be Sean Payton’s last year as a Head Coach in the NFL. Payton entered Denver with high hopes to turn this franchise around, only to run Russell Wilson out of town, lose 20-70 against the Dolphins in Week 3, and miss their 8th postseason in a row.
Although Denver finished the year at 8-9, it felt like they went 5-12 the way the culture has stuck on ground level since the Hackett hiring two years ago. Drafting Bo Nix out of Oregon at 12 gives the Bronco fan base some hope, but ultimately Nix won’t fix their short or long term problems at Quarterback.
Outside of corner Pat Surtain, the Broncos best defensive player might be… Zach Allen? The lack of playmakers and depth on the defensive side of the ball will make it difficult for Nix, Stidham, or Zach Wilson to win football games, likely needing to throw for at least two touchdowns a game to even have a chance at competing in games.
Whoever wins the QB battle this offseason will come into one of the most daunting jobs of the ‘24 season. The bright side is that Stidham or Nix will play behind one of the better offensive lines in the AFC and as for Payton’s style of play, could bode well for getting over some early learning curves due to quick passes and decision making.
Record Prediction: 5-12
The Broncos and Giants are the two consensus worst teams in football this season. Outside of Malik Nabers, there isn’t much hype surrounding this Giant team especially after losing their best player to their NFC rival Philly over the offseason. Devin Singletary will replace Barkley and a group of safeties will try to replace Xavier McKinney as New York will most likely be in damage control all season.
The Giants defense seemed to keep them in a lot of games they had no business competing in last season and that should continue this season with Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibs, and Azeez Ojulari making for one of the best pass rushing groups in the NFC. The question won’t be on defense though.
This offense only put up 20 points five times last season, struggling mightily to make any sort of progression especially after defenses started to figure Daniel Jones out. Having the 2023 this team did after winning a playoff game in 2022 makes for one of the most interesting and unpredictable campaigns in the league this season.
The Giants have been searching for a wideout to lead this team vocally and by example since the OBJ era. We think they’ve found the next superstar in Malik Nabers out of LSU, but it is crucial that Nabers comes out of the gate with the ball in his hands, able to make superstar-like plays and also mistakes.
Over the course of the season, if Nabers finishes with less than 5 TDS or less than 900 yards, that will be a failure for Daboll and company. If Nabers steps in and becomes the legitimate #1 option Jones has never had, Daboll's offense has a shot at surprising to the upside.
Record Prediction: 5-12
The Patriots are moving into a new era as BB has left the building. Jerod Mayo will take over a squad that finished 4-13 last season in one of the tougher divisions in football. The Pats drafted UNC QB Drake Maye with the 3rd pick and invested in some new targets including Javon Baker, KJ Osborn, and Ja’Lynn Polk among others.
The sneaky signing of Antonio Gibson will make this offense completely different this season from the Mac Jones-led team last season and after the Celtics won the ‘24 championship, expect Kraft to urge this team to play completely differently in this era of Patriot football to try and get Boston back.
Defense will continue to be the Pats calling card, especially in a division where they can attack Josh Allen, Tua, and Rodgers six times this season. These are amazing QBs, but don’t always have their finest day against a Patriot defense that can scramble across the field to make plays. Christian Gonzalez, Jonathan Jones, and Marcus Jones lead a secondary that will be ranked inside the top 10 come the end of the season.
The Patriots will try to keep the ball out of their QBs hands as much as they can early on in the season, which will force them to use a two to three back committee. With a fresh start, we expect Antonio Gibson to make a huge impact this season alongside Rhamondre Stevenson, who should have a bounce back year for New England.
Record Prediction: 6-11
Just narrowly missing the cut here are the Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals. Neither team has any chance of making the playoffs, but a handful of offseason moves kept them from being a bottom 5 roster this season.