How to Build a Succesful NFL Betting Strategy
Betting on the NFL is one of the most popular forms of betting across the United States and even the world. There is so much to bet on and so many opportunities to make money that it is even hard for the most casual of bettors not to be enticed.
However, before you start betting, you need a strategy you can use as a guide. While strategies aren’t bulletproof, they can be used as a way to steer you in the right direction, no matter who is playing. Whether you are at home or in one of the NFL stadiums, here is a guide to creating a great betting strategy.
In NFL betting, there are three types of odds you will encounter the most often; the points spread, totals, and the money line.
The points spread is simple to understand; if the Bengals are at -5.5 and the Browns are at +5.5, the Bengals are considered the favorites. They would need to win by 6 or more points for you to win, whereas for you to win with the Browns, they would need to win or lose by less than 5.5 points.
A total bet is simply the number of points scored in a given game. For example, you can bet on Over 40 or Under 40; Over 40 means you think 40 or more points will be scored, and you win, or if you bet on Under 40, you think less than 40 points will be scored.
Finally, a money line bet is simply betting on who will win. If the Kansas City Chiefs are at -300 and the Packers are at +200, you would need to bet $300 to win $100 with the Chiefs. On the other hand, if you back the Packers, $100 will win you $200.
The second thing you need to do is study the teams and players. If you are new to the sport or betting, you should choose half a dozen and learn who their best players are, their win/loss record, how many TDs they score, etc.
Knowing these stats will indicate how well the team is doing, whether they score or defend better, etc.
While a parlay bet may sound exciting, the more teams you add, the less likely you are to win. If you split the league in half, the chances of you calling 16 correct games in one weekend are astronomical.
While it is tempting to bet on the underdog on a 14-game losing streak and think, “this will be the one they win,” it will more than likely not pan out. When betting, you want to control the outcome more, and long shots don’t give you that control.
While it's fun to throw an underdog bet in every now and then, and some may come off, rather stick to games that are more 50/50 or games that have a slight favorite.
While you should keep your bets relatively small, don’t fall into the trap of having your bet on four, five, or six related outcomes. An example would be betting on Justin Jefferson scoring the first TD, scoring the most TDs, having the most rushing yards, and having the most catches.
While this type of bet will win you a lot of money, it will all go down the drain if one of those events doesn’t happen. Instead, spread your bets on separate events and outcomes, as this will give you the best chance at success.
Considering how much you can bet on in an NFL game, choosing more specialized bets could be a good idea. These would include betting on the number of completed passes, downs, etc.
While this isn’t easier to do, it is good for those who don’t know who the best players are, their chances of scoring, etc.
Finally, don’t think about previous games and results. While the point about not betting on long shots still applies, this applies to the supposed favorites. An NFL game can be decided on one missed pass or field goal, meaning a dominant team can easily lose on any given day.
Think about each game in isolation; who is injured, who is starting or benched, which new players have been called up. Just because a team won by 50 points last game, it doesn’t mean they can’t lose this game.