Aaron Nola Gets the Ball for Phillies in Winner-Take-All Game 3 vs. Braves

Aaron Nola will take the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday night in the biggest start of his career — a winner-take-all Game 3 of the NL Wild Card Series against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park. First pitch is set for 8 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock, with a trip to face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS on the line.

The 33-year-old right-hander enters the decisive game on full rest, a notable contrast from his last outing. Nola opened a bullpen game on just two days’ rest in the second-to-last game of the regular season, tossing only 21 pitches over one inning in a gambit that helped the Phillies clinch their playoff spot. This time, he’s back on his normal schedule for the first time in weeks, and Philadelphia is counting on the version of Nola that dominated down the stretch.

Nola’s Second-Half Surge

Nola’s full-season line reads modest on paper — 7-12 with a 4.67 ERA across 33 starts and 175.1 innings. But that number masks a dramatic turnaround. Since August 1, Nola has been one of the better pitchers in the National League, posting a 2.93 ERA with a 61:20 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 61.1 innings spanning 11 starts. He also made franchise history late in the year, passing Robin Roberts for second-most strikeouts in Phillies history with 1,876 career punchouts.

Against Atlanta specifically, the results have been shakier — Nola carries a 4.50 ERA in three starts versus the Braves this season, a track record that adds intrigue to a lineup featuring Matt Olson and company. Still, the Phillies are leaning on the arm that got them to October, and interim manager Don Mattingly has made clear the plan doesn’t stop with Nola. Zack Wheeler, on three days’ rest after starting the regular-season finale, is expected to be available out of the bullpen behind him, with Jesus Luzardo having already started Game 1 for a Philadelphia staff now operating in full “all hands on deck” mode.

A Series Tied at One Apiece

The stakes could hardly be higher. Atlanta took Game 1 by a 5-3 score, but Philadelphia answered in a 10-inning thriller to even the series 4-3 in Game 2, setting up Thursday’s single-elimination finale. The Braves will counter with left-hander Ray Kerr as an opener, bridging to Grant Holmes to handle the bulk of the innings — a bullpen-forward strategy designed to neutralize the left-handed-heavy top of Philadelphia’s order early.

Oddsmakers have installed the Phillies as narrow favorites, with moneyline prices hovering around -110 to -118 depending on the book and the total sitting at 7.5 runs. Bettors tracking the line movement throughout the day can check a DraftKings promo code before placing a wager on this one, given how thin the margin is between these two rosters. Philadelphia has also won each of the three prior postseason series between these franchises, a historical footnote both sides are well aware of entering Thursday. Fans looking to shop lines across multiple books before first pitch can also compare a FanDuel promo code against the market.

What’s at Stake

Beyond the immediate drama, Thursday’s winner advances to face a Dodgers team that enters the NLDS as one of the sport’s deepest rosters top to bottom. For the Phillies, it’s another chance to prove last year’s roster reshuffling and the in-season managerial change haven’t derailed a core still built around Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and a well-regarded rotation. For the Braves, it’s a chance to validate a lineup anchored by Olson and extend a season that has weathered its own share of turbulence.

Nola’s assignment is clear: give the Phillies length and keep the game within reach long enough for Wheeler to close it out if needed. Whether he can do that against a Braves lineup that has given him trouble this season will go a long way toward deciding which NL team plays on through October.